Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

Check out the latest Scripps forecast....Could we possibly be looking at a Super La Nina next fall/winter!! It appears this Super El Nino is about to undergo a major free fall...

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/ ... 016-09.jpg

Of course, record flooding immediately followed by record drought. It's gonna be a lot of fun. Not.......

We'll be alright through Spring of 2016. The transitional La Nina's are not too terrible. 1998, 2007. 2010 were not horrible (compared to the year after) because the lingering Nino effects remains through the first half of the year, this Nino will weaken but won't be gone until May or June. When we say rapidly weaken we mean in ENSO time it makes months for things to happen and months after for atmospheric response. The Nina won't happen until fall or winter of 2016 and the lag effects of the atmosphere takes a few months. We'll probably accumulated enough rain the next several months to survive summer of 2016 even with a Nina.

What will really hurt is winter and spring of 2017-2018 after the Nina pattern settles. And if we followup the Nina with a second year Nina (1999, 2008, 2011) that's when the multi-year drought really hurts. We'll know because it will start in Southeast Texas because that's the wettest region in Texas. Their months will gradually get drier and drier and the rest of the state will follow.

[JDawg512]

Check out the latest Scripps forecast....Could we possibly be looking at a Super La Nina next fall/winter!! It appears this Super El Nino is about to undergo a major free fall...

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/ ... 016-09.jpg

Of course, record flooding immediately followed by record drought. It's gonna be a lot of fun. Not.......

We'll be alright through Spring of 2016. The transitional La Nina's are not too terrible. 1998, 2007. 2010 were not horrible (compared to the year after) because the lingering Nino effects remains through the first half of the year, this Nino will weaken but won't be gone until May or June. When we say rapidly weaken we mean in ENSO time it makes months for things to happen and months after for atmospheric response. The Nina won't happen until fall or winter of 2016 and the lag effects of the atmosphere takes a few months. We'll probably accumulated enough rain the next several months to survive summer of 2016 even with a Nina.

What will really hurt is winter and spring of 2017-2018 after the Nina pattern settles. And if we followup the Nina with a second year Nina (1999, 2008, 2011) that's when the multi-year drought really hurts. We'll know because it will start in Southeast Texas because that's the wettest region in Texas. Their months will gradually get drier and drier and the rest of the state will follow.

Let's hope the PDO stays positive long term which should help to dampen it's effects. If it goes negative then it could get ugly.

[Ntxw]

Models are depressing if you like cold. Still no real delivery mechanism for cold air. At least we still have cold mornings here. (Del Rio)

Looks like we will have to wait on the eventual breakdown of the PV before we get another Arctic shot. Hopefully that comes within the next month. Our best hope for cold right now is for the STJ to become active again. At least we are in the time of year now where even Pacific fronts bring freezing mornings to northern Texas at least.

The models don't yet show a breakdown of the PV at least at 10mb but there is displacement of it by attacks from wave 1 (Asia-Pacific). Though we don't always need a stratospheric warming up high to get a -AO. Another way to do it faster is via the troposphere closer to home.

Euro does show some help with wave 2 (atlantic warming) to help squeeze the stratosphere PV

[Ntxw]

Let's hope the PDO stays positive long term which should help to dampen it's effects. If it goes negative then it could get ugly.

Yeah definitely, a +PDO will negate a lot of La Nina. 1988-1989<- this was the second strongest Nina since 1950, 1995-1996 were much more manageable Nina's within a broader +PDO regime of the 1980s/1990s

[Ntxw]

I've been so focused on the historic warmth in the east I forgot to look at data here

DFW is on pace for warmest December too if it ended today. +7.2F for the month at 55F face value. While I don't think the second half of December will be as warm as the first here, a top 10 or 5 warmest is possible. 54F is the warmest in 1933. Thus far in December DFW has recorded no freezes.

The southern half of the state hasn't been as warm 3-5F above normal but still quite mild. The further north and east you go the warmer it has been

[gboudx]

A silver lining to the mild December is the $137 electric bill for this month. Gas bill was about $50; we have gas heating and 3400 sq ft.

[kenfa03]

Check out the latest Scripps forecast....Could we possibly be looking at a Super La Nina next fall/winter!! It appears this Super El Nino is about to undergo a major free fall...

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/ ... 016-09.jpg

Of course, record flooding immediately followed by record drought. It's gonna be a lot of fun. Not.......

You know it's coming... people are sick of rain so now they can be sick of it not raining again.

The GFS is showing more consistent colder air beyond 300 hours... all the way through to January 1 2016... and yes I know... but this pattern is trash.

It's also a lot cooler than the Euro on Christmas... would be more seasonal(pray it verifies over the Euro )

Put me in the camp that will never be sick of the rain and that's after 7.25" last weekend. Never want see another 2011.

[weatherdude1108]

Beautiful day today in Austin!

But it looks like no white Christmas for Austin this year. Darn!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
250 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE MOST NOTABLE THING IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THE PLATEAU AND WESTERNMOST ZONES IN THE
CWA. IN THE LAST HOUR...LAPS ANALYSIS SHOULD SUB 20 PERCENT RH IN
WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY WITH WINDS OF 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 30
MPH. THIS WOULD TYPICALLY WARRANT NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DANGERS BUT FUEL MOISTURE IS QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE CWA AND FIRE
IGNITIONS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. THE BREEZY DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD ONLY PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND WIND
FIELDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER DARK.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND
ALLOW FOR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS BY DAYBREAK AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING FOR THE PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY...AND NORTHERN I35
CORRIDOR. IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ENOUGH TO CROSS OFF ANY OF OUR REMAINING
COUNTIES YET TO FREEZE FROM THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM.

BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS ACROSS THE
CWA SHOULD MAKE SATURDAY QUITE A NICE DAY. MORE CLEAR SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S TO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AS THIS LATEST UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
RIDGING TAKES OVER AT THE H5 LEVEL...850 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PARALLEL THE GULF COAST OF TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...RETURN GULF FLOW WILL EFFICIENTLY MOISTEN THE LOW
LEVELS UP TO 850 MB AND KICK OFF A PRETTY STRONG LLJ BY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ENTER
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EAST SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. A QUICK LOW LEVEL RESURGENCE OF MOISTURE IS BEING ADVERTISED
IN THE GFS MONDAY AS A H5 SHORTWAVE INCREASES IN AMPLITUDE AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY. THEN IT GETS OVERTAKEN BY
THE STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH FROM THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES.

WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS TUESDAY AND PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THUNDER AND SOME DECENT RAIN RATES ARE
POSSIBLE BUT CURRENTLY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS KEEP THE HIGHER QPF
VALUES EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR. SO AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...ONLY
LOW END CHANCE POPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR I35 AND
EAST.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF...A TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
BEGINS AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EVOLVES AND MOVES ONSHORE
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS BEYOND WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...SO WILL
REFRAIN FROM DETAILS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS DO
INDICATE A PROGRESSIVE AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH COULD
MAKE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND POTENTIALLY WET...AND ONLY WET...SORRY
WHITE CHRISTMAS WISHERS.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
249 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WHICH IS SENDING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE EVENING
WITH WINDS SUBTLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTH. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS LIFTING
COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES MAY
RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE PARIS AREA THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE ANY CLOUD COVER WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM BY
SUNRISE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
BEST AND TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST ZONES.

A NICE...BUT SEASONABLY COOL DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY OVER THE AREA
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. ON SATURDAY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WITH FULL SUNSHINE. ON
SUNDAY MORNING GULF MOISTURE AND LOW STRATUS WILL SURGE BACK INTO
THE AREA. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL
SATURATION TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
SUNDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO
THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LOW
POPS CONFINED TO THAT AREA.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST NEXT WEEK...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WHICH WILL
FEATURE A STATIONARY BROAD AND BOWL SHAPED TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ASSUREDLY PUT US IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO RIPPLE
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW
MUCH INFLUENCE THIS TROUGHING WILL HAVE ON OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN HAVE MUCH STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW AND THUS KEEP ALL
GULF MOISTURE AND PRECIP SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS WEAKER WITH THIS WESTERLY FLOW AND IT SHOWS DECENT CHANCES
OF CONVECTION AND EVEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TUESDAY.
OBVIOUSLY THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE AND THIS PROBABILITY IS HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THUS WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF POPS EAST OF A
BONHAM...DALLAS...KILLEEN LINE AND WE WILL BE UNDERCUTTING THE
GFS GUIDANCE ON POP NUMBERS AS WELL. THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS MAY CREEP
BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY CHRISTMAS NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.

ONE NOTE IS THAT WHEN THESE BROAD TROUGHS DEVELOP OVER THE
COUNTRY THEY USUALLY PORTEND A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. THIS
OCCURS AS THEY GRADUALLY FILL WITH COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE WHICH
EVENTUALLY ENHANCES THE BAROCLINICITY...OR AVAILABLE ENERGY...FOR
SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEMS TO INTENSIFY. THAT IS WHAT THE
EXTENDED MODELS SHOW...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN ALL INDICATING
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION A COUPLE OF DAYS
AFTER CHRISTMAS WHICH WOULD INCREASE HEAVY RAIN CHANCES AHEAD OF
IT AND BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. THERE IS STILL A
LOT OF TIME TO SEE HOW THE SPECIFICS IN THIS SYSTEM EVOLVE IN THE
MODEL DATA BUT IT WILL BE ONE TO WATCH.

[Ntxw]

Cool image from Jason 2 of the Nino. 2015-2016 into winter!



Just so we can compare it to the biggest Nino most of us have experienced during the existence of storm2k

[Ralph's Weather]

Thanks for sharing those. This Nino sure is expansive. The potential saving grace I see on there is the NE Pac is all above average with no cool pool.

[Ntxw]

Want a frigid, cold, and snowy Christmas? Head for Alaska! This is the cold air in NW mentioned. While parts of the conus is basking in warmth they are experiencing what Alaska is known for. The seesaw relationship it has with the lower 48. They've had relatively warm winters the past few, coldest recently was 2011-2012 when Nome was frozen shut and ran out of fuel for heating with little means of transport.

[Brent]

Want a frigid, cold, and snowy Christmas? Head for Alaska! This is the cold air in NW mentioned. While parts of the conus is basking in warmth they are experiencing what Alaska is known for. The seesaw relationship it has with the lower 48. They've had relatively warm winters the past few, coldest recently was 2011-2012 when Nome was frozen shut and ran out of fuel for heating with little means of transport.

http://i68.tinypic.com/i27fop.png

That might be a bit too cold...

The 18z GFS continues the trend of looking like more sustained colder air towards the week after Christmas and New Years.

[Ptarmigan]

I really wish we had weather data in Texas going back to the massive Nino of 1877-1878. I'd like to know how the months panned out that year.

There is a lot of cold in the source regions as I said yesterday in NW NA depicted. No sign yet of delivery mechanism. Lets hope for a 1965 type reversal...we need the EPO to flip, the big Nino aleutian extended trof into Alaska isn't favorable.

Continue with the northeast heat. NYC is so warm avg wise for the month even if it got seasonably cold the rest of December they would still end up with the warmest Dec by a degree or two. But of course it will remain warmer thus blow all time monthly records out of water

I tried finding data for Texas in 1877-1878. There was another strong El Nino in 1888-1889. There is data out there.

You can try these.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/da ... .day.v2.pl
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/da ... 0thc.v2.pl

[Ntxw]

I tried finding data for Texas in 1877-1878. There was another strong El Nino in 1888-1889. There is data out there.

You can try these.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/da ... .day.v2.pl
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/da ... 0thc.v2.pl

Thanks for sharing that. I did the dates for 1877-1878 DJF and they were disastrous. December has the warmth like now for the lakes, then in January it cooled a little bit especially for the southeast states. Feb then turned on another torch for the middle of the country that spread eastward.

The key to a 1957/1965/1977 type flip seems to be the EPO region of Alaska. Hopefully we can erase the Nino +EPO tendencies. It seems to be ok as long as the low heights change to higher heights there regardless of how far east the Aleutian wants to extend.

Colder flips



Stays warm

[Ntxw]

Speaking of Alaska, the weeklies and CFSv2 of late seems to want to raise those heights over Alaska. At least maybe the second week of January the torches will end and we see more delivery from source region.

[South Texas Storms]

The 0z GFS is very wet across much of Texas next weekend. It's showing a slow-moving deep upper-level low across Mexico bringing several days of moderate to heavy rain across the state, with snow in the Panhandle. When the low moves across the state, some snow would be possible under wherever it tracks.

[Brent]

The 0z GFS is very wet across much of Texas next weekend. It's showing a slow-moving deep upper-level low across Mexico bringing several days of moderate to heavy rain across the state, with snow in the Panhandle. When the low moves across the state, some snow would be possible under wherever it tracks.

One final flood of 2015...

also continues to hint at a backside snow setup around New Years but thats pure fantasyland... however it does seem like the signal for at least more cold air and less warm air is there at the least.

[wxman57]

Snow in Dallas/Ft. Worth the 27th! Note that the 00Z Euro has the snow barely reaching the TX Panhandle and staying north of Oklahoma for the same time...

[Tireman4]

Snow in Dallas/Ft. Worth the 27th!
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_39.png

Why do I think you are laughing....