Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

don't get sucked into those long range GFS runs. It's bad enough it fools us during tropical season..we can't make it a year-round affair..

Oh, I am not at all sucked in psyclone. Come on now. I have been around way too long in this business not to get fooled by Mother Nature on most occasions. That is why I put in a disclaimer stating "For Entertainment Purposes Only" for long range models. It is fantasy land out 360 hours, I totally am aware of that fact. Generally, I almost never look ahead that far out(2 weeks). I realize that it likely won't come to fruition the way the pattern is shown on that long range run, which I touched on in that post earlier. Way far out in time. However, I just thought it was good fodder to just mention among us on the forum today, while we are stuck in this blowtorch pattern for the time being.

I should say we will be back in the warm pattern again starting Monday after this blink of an eye cool down this weekend

[psyclone]

that feeling you get when your dewpoint (post sunset) exceeds your normal high...yep...73 degrees. we do have a decent line of showers (no lightning) edging closer to the nature coast down to the Tampa bay area. if they hold together a quick shot of heavy rain will be on tap this evening for those areas..

[psyclone]

You know Northjax...we did get faked out repeatedly last year with cold shots and then finally that one in late Feb was the real deal...so...

[northjaxpro]

You know Northjax...we did get faked out repeatedly last year with cold shots and then finally that one in late Feb was the real deal...so...

Yeah, you are right. Even last winter across the peninsula the models 7-10 days out were not very accurate to my recollection. The GFS in particular did struggle. That is medium range. But, overall, we were thrown by the models at times then, which was frustrating. These type of monkey wrenches and twists does come with the territory at times for sure.

82 degrees was the official max temp at the NWS Jax office today, which set a new record high for this date. Fell short of the all-time record max for December, which is 84 degrees.

Also, record high temperatures were set today at Vero Beach (87 degrees), Daytona Beach (84 degrees), Melbourne (86 degrees), and Apalachicola (81 degrees)

[Sanibel]

Warm here. Balmy 77*.

[NDG]

What a heat ridge for the eastern US for Christmas Day as some have already mentioned.

[northjaxpro]

This is very sad for cold weather lovers who expect to have cold weather for Christmas. This blowtorch pattern is going to hang around for quite a lengthy time.

What a bummer indeed Ski resorts all along the Appalachians from North Carolina northeast to Vermont probably are crying because this warmth is killing their business. It simply has been too warm for even snow making and many of these resorts have not even opened this season because of this ridiculous warmth across the Eastern United States. It is absolutely crazy that there is no snow cover over most of the Eastern U.S. for Christmas.

I really am about to give up on winter if we don't see a pattern change by the middle of January.

[psyclone]

well in fairness the east has enjoyed multiple epic ski seasons in recent years while the west has been shafted so a turn is fair and certainly overdue. The great lakes are sporting remarkable warmth so if we do get a change to serious cold up there some of the snowbelts will get buried. meanwhile it's breezy and getting cooler here..and it feels nice.

[gatorcane]

low of 47F for PH tonight with wind gusts to 31mph....will be a chilly one for you up there. We are supposed to only get down to 67F in my locale as the NWS has kept bumping up the temps...

[psyclone]

it feels fantastic. our dewpoint at 7 am was 72 and now it's 54. I enjoy cool but have no interest in cold/freezing temps. Bring this on!

[NDG]

:uarrow: This is very sad for cold weather lovers who expect to have cold weather for Christmas. This blowtorch pattern is going to hang around for quite a lengthy time.

What a bummer indeed Ski resorts all along the Appalachians from North Carolina northeast to Vermont probably are crying because this warmth is killing their business. It simply has been too warm for even snow making and many of these resorts have not even opened this season because of this ridiculous warmth across the Eastern United States. It is absolutely crazy that there is no snow cover over most of the Eastern U.S. for Christmas.

I really am about to give up on winter if we don't see a pattern change by the middle of January.

I feel bad for some friends that had rented a cabin months ago for the Holidays up in the Smokey Mts for their kids to enjoy a white Christmas, doubt there will be much if any even at the highest peaks.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, psyclone the cool weather now filtering in across the area behind the front feels so refreshing right now. It sure beats 70% humidity and record breaking temps in the low 80s like we had here yesterday I can assure of this!

NWS projecting 36 degrees here tomorrow morning. It has remained that way.most of this week with guidance. So a nice cool morning but no freeze is anticipated in extreme Northeast Florida. The colder, interior locales of the Suwannee River Valley region and the Big Bend area around Tallahassee
may briefly touch the 32 degree freeze mark.

[psyclone]

Looks like a warm & muggy Christmas Eve and Christmas day is a near certainty at this point.

[FireRat]

Steady nw winds now with a temp of 74 degrees here in my area according to the car, so maybe 72-73 ish. feels nicer already!

[Sanibel]

This front is relatively mild so far.

[gatorcane]

Dewpoints are noticeably lower behind the front:

[northjaxpro]

Good morning gang. Temperature is at 37.6 degrees here at 6 a.m. here at my ponderosa. Looks like guidance abslutely nailed the forecast for much of this week as it projected mid 30s for this morning in the Jax area. Temps across all of North Florida is in the mid-upper 30s at this hour. Crestview at 29 degrees has the coldest reading, as you would expect from the state's notorious cold drainage spot. Temp here at my locale may drop a couple of more degrees right through to just past sunrise.

North winds still funneling through the region at 5-10 mph from the High Pressure axis currently positioned over Mississippi. This cold advection will continue over the region today with max temps expected to only to near 60 degrees.

Interesting in that the NWS in their AFD seems rather confident thst frost will be around tomorrow morning in interior areas. I agree that frost will be possible for sure across the Suwannee River Valley and Big Bend region where the wi ds should go light . The High axis will still shift north of the area, which means onshore flow here in Jax area. I may see a chance if frost at my locale tomorrow morning, but only if the wind can get light after 6Z-12Z. I live far enough inland and away from the St. Johns River to have a shot at frost in the morning.

No freeze will occur this weekend here in Jax , but holding on to hope to at least see a frost. That would put a temporary stop to mowing the yard if we get some!

[psyclone]

We're warmer than forecast but it still feels cold.

[NDG]

Amazing how much the warm Gulf Stream has influence with surface temps over SE coastal FL when the NAO is not negative.

[FireRat]

Made it down to 57 early morning per the local weather bug...ha! finally dipped below 60 in west broward this year. this afternoon is absolutely fantastic to be outside, w/ low 70s some wind and no humidity!