Tropical Depression 98W

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the WPac might have one more left to give this year. 98W has been designated deep down in the South China Sea. JMA has declared 98W as a minor tropical depression, and JTWC is currently giving a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 24 hours. 98W may track into the Gulf of Thailand and eventually cross basins into the Bay of Bengal.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.0N 109.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 337 NM SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 192319Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE NORTH AND WEST PERIPHERIES. A RECENT
200206Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS WITH SOME ISOLATED 25
KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN
CONVECTION. THE LLCC IS ADJACENT TO A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE WITH
30 KNOTS OF WINDS OBSERVED WELL TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE BEING
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

Remains MEDIUM

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 109.9E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 108.9E, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 202315Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM. A RECENT 210143Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALS 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
LLCC WITHIN CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO
30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

Going down...

[supercane]

Still listed as a non-warning TD per JMA at 12Z on 22 Dec 2015:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 07N 104E WNW 10 KT.

[euro6208]

Downgraded to LOW

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.4N
108.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3N 107.3E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH
OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DIMINISHING ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. A 220217Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED
A WEAKER WIND FIELD THAT HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED SINCE THE LAST
PASS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND MODERATE TO STRONG (20
TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE NO LONGER
DEVELOPING THIS DISTURBANCE INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO
THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE WEAKENING IN THE OVERALL WIND
FIELD, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.3N
107.3E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.