Texas Winter 2015-2016

[lukem]

What are rain amounts looking like west of 35? The Upper Colorado River and West Central Texas lakes could still use a ton of rain.

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z GFS is running very similar to recent GFS runs with the upper low even a tad further west. Rain totals look like 2-5" over N TX with over an inch for all but S TX and Trans Pecos region. Snows stay in the Panhandle where totals approach 2 feet. It shows the cold trying to catch up with the back edge of the rain over N TX but failing to quite make it in time.

[hriverajr]

All the models are having consistency issues from run to run. Look at the other features besides the agreed upon 500 mb low. They are all over the place as we go out in time.

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z GFS shows almost ideal set up for icing on NYE at 500mb though it does not show it on the surface plot. 1040s high in the Panhandle and trough digging west of Baja.

In the long range it is showing a very wintery few days for SW Texas. And a general cool spell for the whole state after this week.

[Brent]

Maybe some flakes Monday morning?

But yeah... GFS is all aboard winter coming after this storm



and as 2016 begins:

[hriverajr]

18Z GFS shows almost ideal set up for icing on NYE at 500mb though it does not show it on the surface plot. 1040s high in the Panhandle and trough digging west of Baja.

In the long range it is showing a very wintery few days for SW Texas. And a general cool spell for the whole state after this week.

I saw that.. I wonder what the next run shows...

[Ntxw]

STJ is lifting north for sure. Plenty of tropical moisture fetch available from the Pacific. We will end 2015 the same way it came in, heavy rain.



Like 3-6"+ away from the wintry sector

[JDawg512]

EWX really isn't giving Central Texas (Austin area) and the hill country west of the city very good rain chances. The system is going farther north per their thinking. I was expecting a lot more rainfall for this area of the state than we have seen this month.

[srainhoutx]

Don't be surprised if the upper low track continues to shift further South as we near the Christmas Eve timeframe. The El Nino event of 1997/1998 had multiple Southern Storms tracking across Northern Mexico into the Pecos/Permian Basin to Waco axis before turning ENE to NE.

[hriverajr]

Don't be surprised if the upper low track continues to shift further South as we near the Christmas Eve timeframe. The El Nino event of 1997/1998 had multiple Southern Storms tracking across Northern Mexico into the Pecos/Permian Basin to Waco axis before turning ENE to NE.

That would make things a bit more interesting. When do you think we will know? 24-36 hours before event?

[Ntxw]

Said storm will be coming ashore Weds/Thurs and will be sampled better once in California and the southwest. Once it digs into SoCal will have good heading how far south it is and likely to go. Also we have to watch the HP to it's north, how cold the air mass driving into it will be.

[JayDT]

Don't be surprised if the upper low track continues to shift further South as we near the Christmas Eve timeframe. The El Nino event of 1997/1998 had multiple Southern Storms tracking across Northern Mexico into the Pecos/Permian Basin to Waco axis before turning ENE to NE.

Thank you for this post! It gives me some more hope.

[Ntxw]

I'm sure many of us would love a CMC track

[Brent]

I'm sure many of us would love a CMC track

But somehow I-35 repels the snow...



What is this nonsense? lol then the moisture goes away before its cold enough

[Ntxw]

I'm sure many of us would love a CMC track

But somehow I-35 repels the snow...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_31.png

What is this nonsense? lol then the moisture goes away before its cold enough

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_26.png

Yeah. It's driven by cold air aloft from the ULL. That HP up north is important to drive some cold air in. I still prefer that track though from central Texas to NE Texas, then take our chances.

[Brent]

Looking further out... this looks good for the New Years into early January timeframe:

[TheProfessor]

6z GFS looked like it was going to be interesting but then the low literally took a due north turn.

[Ralph's Weather]

On Monday evening the GFS has our low in Wisconsin and the Euro over N TX. I still lean towards the Euro which has been pretty consistent.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The GFS has left the sanity farm and camped out in a cloud of smoke on Sativa Farms.

[Ralph's Weather]

The GFS has left the sanity farm and camped out in a cloud of smoke on Sativa Farms.

Agreed, it is like it is treating the closed low like a shortwave. I have never seen a closed low jet off with the jet like that. That is what makes them closed is that they are separate from the jet.