Florida Weather

[JonathanBelles]

I ended up dropping down to 49.1 degrees this morning. I'm appreciative of this one morning of cool wx.

[SouthFloridian92]

It got down to 47 degrees here in Sebring and warmed up to 70 at the highest. Too bad this weather won't last due to the stupid ridge.

[northjaxpro]

Had a low of 36.2 degrees earlier today and measured a max temp of 58.4 degrees at 4:10 p.m. this afternoon. Today has been our coldest day of this early winter by far to this point.

36.2 degrees measured this morning is the coldest of this season to this point as well. It finally felt like Christmas for at least today.

May have a chance at least for some frost by tomorrow morning only IF the wind can lay down enough.

The blowtorch pattern returns beginning Monday and by Christmas, we will be back potentially into the lower 80s.

[psyclone]

What a heavenly transition this has been. My house creaked last night in response to the dramatically cooler and drier airmass. for the tampa bay area we have 2 more pleasant nights in store with tonight being close to last night in terms of temps, tomorrow night looks to be about 10 degrees warmer (but still nice) and then our lows return to near 70 with a corresponding surge in dewpoints thereafter. My strategy is to let as much low dewpoint air blow through the house as possible and then slam the door as the dewpoints surge. the low sun angle this time of the year allows the cool, dry air to maintain integrity for a surprisingly long time inside after the warmth and humidity return outside. I hope everyone is enjoying this much deserved break from the anomalous high temps/dewpoints.

[Sanibel]

More cool front than cold front here. Got up to 70* today.

I don't like cold but it was good to take a break from that tropical moisture...

[northjaxpro]

Well, the wind has gone calm this evening here at my ponderosa, and right now I am having ideal radiational cooling conditions. Clear skies and temp currently 38.7 degrees. If it stays like this the rest of the night, frost will definitely be around my yard in the morning. Also, we will definitely get colder than last night. Temps in the low-mid 30s look likely at my locale now by sunrise. Hmmm... I definitely was not thinking the freeze mark would be possible earlier because I thought there would be just enough of a wind to maintain mixing mixing at the surface. However, with the calm wind, it is a fair chance we may get very close to the freeze mark by sunrise.

Just checked the 11p.m. observation from Cecil Commerce, the cold drainage locale on the western end of Duval County and that station is reporting 32 degrees there already.

[NDG]

Amazing cold air drainage indeed across the northern & the western section of peninsula last despite winds changing from off of the Atlantic Ocean at h925.

[northjaxpro]

Interesting overnight and early morning across Northeast Florida. The wind went dead calm at 9 p.m. last night at my locale and the temp literally cratered to near the dew point under ideal radiational cooling conditions. I turned in for the night at around 1 a.m. with the temp at 36.4 degrees and it appeared that frost here at the ponderosa would have been a sure bet, and even a slight possibility of getting close to the freeze mark.

Ahh, but the wind, even at 5 mph or so, makes a huge difference. I mentioned in the posts above how surprised initially I was in that the wind did go calm because the orientation of the High axis would be well north of the area and onshore flow would keep frost and freeze conditions away from metro Jax. But the north wind at around 5 mph speed did commence. Looking at the hourly obs from the NWS Jax office, it started at around 2 a.m. and that was just enough to create mixing at the surface and not only prevented frost formation at my locale, but actually caused the temp to slowly rise , now at 39.2 degrees.

So, ended up with no frost here, although just 20-30 miles to the north and west of my location, there is lots of frost on the ground and on rooftops. That is the way it goes and why weather is fascinating.

Inland locations across North Florida, where the wind stayed calm all night, did have frost and temps dropped into the lower to mid 30s, with Lake City reporting 32 degrees. There were a couple of other spots out in the Big Bend region which were at or just above freezing before sunrise. A decent freeze occurred out in spots in the Panhandle, with some upper 20s even reported, with Crestview, of course, reporting 28 degrees. Actually, it did reach the freeze mark out at Cecil Commerce in western Duval County as well.

So, two consecutive mornings in the mid 30s at my home measured, and that will do it for cold weather for who knows how long?

A massive upper level ridge will build across the Eastern U.S. , especially later this week and establishing itself right through Christmas and the days beyond. We will see periods of rain at times this week as a moist, strong south- southwest flow aloft , along with weak shortwave impulses traversing from the GOM will trigger lift to bring rain to the state. Temps will be ridiculously above the normal for this time of the year. Highs will be near 80 to into the lower 80s just here in Jax for most of this week, especially from Tuesday-Christmas Day. Lows only in the mid 60s at best. Temps will average 15 to as much as 20 degrees above average.

The non-winter of 2015-2016 just continues with no end to this anytime soon........

[Sanibel]

Needed a blanket here last night but now we're already coming up through the upper 70's in bright warm soothing south Florida sun.

[gatorcane]

this kindaof of sums it up so far this fall and starting winter this week, no cool air in sight for South Florida. Of course I will take this air instead of cold air any day but it would be nice to get some cool air and lower humidity at least to keep the mosquito population under control as it they continue to be an issue even as we head into winter.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS has suddenly flipped to colder for end of December for the southeast U.S. and Florida:



Then way out at the end of the run brings back the 30s for peninsula Florida:

[NDG]

GFS long range entertainment continues

[psyclone]

Our sterile, dry and crisp atmosphere is history. Notice how quickly mid level clouds have enveloped the peninsula from the east and southeast. A remarkable late December heatwave is upon us.

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF shows nothing but 500MB ridging over Florida and the Bahamas for the next 10 days...

So above normal and dry conditions for Florida through the rest of December if this verifies.

Only thing saving us is the low sun angle and breezy east flow off the Atlantic, otherwise it would be in the 90s with stifling humidity each day.

[Sanibel]

Pleasant warm breezes this evening. Big change from 48 hours ago. Warm.

[gatorcane]

The last 3 runs of the GFS have been showing some chilly weather for the SE United States and Florida come the new year, 42F in Miami? Also previous GFS runs the past week or so have been on and off showing this potential chilly air to start the New Year.

The latest 12Z GFS is the coldest yet for Florida. Also note it is a prolonged period of below normal temperatures starting around Jan 1st and lasting around a week.

[Sanibel]

Wouldn't shock me. Abnormal extremes are sometimes followed by extremes in the other direction.

The model might be underestimating the Nino moderating effect on those predictions.

[gatorcane]

The GFS is definitely screaming pattern change in the last few runs. Take a look below, but the ECMWF is having none of it with a trough in the west instead (second image):



The 00Z ECMWF (out through 240 hours):

[psyclone]

I'd bet with persistence absent compelling, sustained evidence to the contrary...so I'd side with the Euro at this point.

[TheStormExpert]

In my opinion the GFS is a lost cause ALWAYS showing some Arctic cold front sweeping across the Eastern U.S. and down deep into the FL peninsula in it's long range runs.

Fortunately we have the Euro who almost always has it's head screwed on right, predicting and getting right it's 10-day model runs.