Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Brent]

The gfs has highs in the 30s at DFW Monday Tuesday and Wednesday wow and that's with the precip ending before it snows

Lows in the mid to upper 20s Tuesday and Wednesday morning

[gpsnowman]

:uarrow: I am curious without looking myself, what were the temperatures, say a week before the storm? They could not have been as warm as they are now.

DFW was 75 the day before, and much of the week leading up to Christmas was in mid 60s. However freezes were more common that month vs the 1 this month.

I am not supportive of the idea of warmth before snow actually effects if it snows or not. The atmosphere is fluid and moving, cold is coming from ULL as well as HP dome. It does effect how much snow has to fall before you overcome the ground warmth. Once it's in the 20s it could be 80s before and it will still stick

Well I stand corrected. So much heavy snow fell in 09 that ground warmth played a role at first but you are right, the temp was in the mid 20's during the afternoon on the 24th making the warmth the days before moot. Good point, Ntwx.

[Ntxw]

Well I stand corrected. So much heavy snow fell in 09 that ground warmth played a role at first but you are right, the temp was in the mid 20's during the afternoon on the 24th making the warmth the days before moot. Good point, Ntwx.

Another great example is Icemageddon in December 2013. From the 1st to the 4th before the ice storm hit on the 5th DFW was 70, 70, 76, 79 with no freezes and then it all came tumbling down in the 20s and the rest is history.

[Ntxw]

The gfs has highs in the 30s at DFW Monday Tuesday and Wednesday wow and that's with the precip ending before it snows

Lows in the mid to upper 20s Tuesday and Wednesday morning

Both the Euro and GFS, as of today, keeps us Texans near to below normal after this storm's passage through the New Year.

Can't say the same for the Northeast. They went for a much above average Thanksgiving, coming Christmas, may just ring out the New Year in shorts...Normal high for them is around 39-40 for the period.

[Ntxw]

NWS Amarillo is already on it for this system. If you ever wanted to chase a blizzard this is it. With 40-60mph winds you'll get very high drifts upon one to two feet of snow somewhere up there

[starsfan65]

We won't know anything about this path of this storm until Wednesday or Thursday at the latest because I think that storm will be more south than the forecast models are predicting.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS compared to the 12z GFS develops the surface low a little more to the south. Don't be surprised if we get a coastal low out of this heading N/NE. The 500mb digging shortwave behind it could play a role. And not only that the models are quietly seeing much colder air coming down with this from the North with below zero temps in the northern plains associated with the big high so it is not only ULL aloft driven.

I won't lie this is giving me Christmas Eve 2009 vibes like mad. Heaviest snow axis fro Wichita Falls to OKC vs panhandles

[ThunderSleetDreams]

0z GFS comes in even colder next week! Below freezing for NYE for our annual party on the porch! I love it.

[SouthernMet]

@Ntxw i feel you on the chistmas eve 2009 vibes.. especially for northwest tx, and panhandle.

[JayDT]

Ok so this GFS run is giving me a little more hope! Hopefully this trend can continue!

[Brent]

Well that escalated...

[Ntxw]

Ok so this GFS run is giving me a little more hope! Hopefully this trend can continue!

Still lots of time to adjust by no means is any track in stone. First we have to get it to northern Mexico and then figure out where it decides to go, how quickly the fresh cold air coming south out of Canada will be. Off by a little could be drastic differences forecast busts galore with these systems. Storm is rearing it's nose into the Pacific NW tonight will dig south through California the next two days.

[JayDT]

:uarrow: We all do JayDT, well most of us anyway. That 09 storm is one of my favorite Christmas memories. I remember assembling my daughters kitchen set in the bedroom with the blinds open just watching the wind and snow. It was awesome. Took me a lot longer than it should have to put it together. Waking up Christmas morning with the snow on the ground and seeing my then two year old daughter excited was something to behold.

That was definitely one Chirstmas to remember! I couldn't believe it was snowing. I was happy because it was Christmas & even happier because it was snowing. Even had a chance to have a snowball fight with most of my family. Just remembering all this is making me wish it was snowing right now

[Ntxw]

@Ntxw i feel you on the chistmas eve 2009 vibes.. especially for northwest tx, and panhandle.

The storm is just so similar in many ways. The way they digged, the height falls and how models just baffled on it's track and HP cold to the north. The sypnotic set up is quite similar. Slow things down and go 100 more miles south and you change from rain to blizzard.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Porta! Hello dusting in Austin

[JayDT]

Ok so this GFS run is giving me a little more hope! Hopefully this trend can continue!

Still lots of time to adjust by no means is any track in stone. First we have to get it to northern Mexico and then figure out where it decides to go, how quickly the fresh cold air coming south out of Canada will be. Off by a little could be drastic differences forecast busts galore with these systems. Storm is rearing it's nose into the Pacific NW tonight will dig south through California the next two days.

So many things in play. Meteorologists must love and hate these types of storms. I just really hope things keep trending towards snow for the DFW area. So the models will get a better grasp of things within the next two days?

[TheProfessor]

Ok so this GFS run is giving me a little more hope! Hopefully this trend can continue!

Still lots of time to adjust by no means is any track in stone. First we have to get it to northern Mexico and then figure out where it decides to go, how quickly the fresh cold air coming south out of Canada will be. Off by a little could be drastic differences forecast busts galore with these systems. Storm is rearing it's nose into the Pacific NW tonight will dig south through California the next two days.

So many things in play. Meteorologists must love and hate these types of storms. I just really hope things keep trending towards snow for the DFW area. So the models will get a better grasp of things within the next two days?

Well it's not as much of a nightmare for private sector Mets, from what I heard a lot of times their clients will ask them for the worst case scenario and plan accordingly. But for NWS Mets it's a nightmare lol.

[Ntxw]

So many things in play. Meteorologists must love and hate these types of storms. I just really hope things keep trending towards snow for the DFW area. So the models will get a better grasp of things within the next two days?

They should yes, once RAOB sampling is able to get a grasp of the upper air as srain mentioned earlier. Also we will be within 100 hours by later tomorrow into Thurs.

[Brent]

GFS has temps down near zero in the deep snowpack over the Panhandle and Oklahoma even into Thursday morning next week

definitely not gonna be warm around here...

[Ntxw]

GFS has temps down near zero in the deep snowpack over the Panhandle and Oklahoma even into Thursday morning next week

definitely not gonna be warm around here...

GFS keeps DFW in the 30s most of next week after the storm