Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

Lubbock graphic. Much of the western 1/3rd of the state should probably gear up for a major winter storm (as well as kmaf region). As noted before, I wouldn't be surprised if the NWS is contemplating blizzard watches for those WFO's may be issued perhaps by Friday at least. We're not the only folks watching this OKC would be too. OUN I remember in 2009 only had lesser winter warnings and advisories only to wake up to blizzard warnings and a foot in OKC.

[Ntxw]

Since I keep bringing it up and getting people excited Here is the 2009 Christmas eve blizzard timeline from the 09-10 winter thread. If you have spare time take a read. One of the best arguments between most of us vs an infamous poster who turned out right. It's a fun read.

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106895&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=1460

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Pattern looks to hold thru 384.... Let's go Winter!

[Brent]

The CMC is slower than the 12z but appears to keep DFW all rain. Widespread rain continues into Monday on this run.

LOL it's only 30 degrees warmer than the GFS on Monday..

[Ntxw]

The CMC is slower than the 12z but appears to keep DFW all rain. Widespread rain continues into Monday on this run.

LOL it's only 30 degrees warmer than the GFS on Monday..

I wouldn't buy that temperature profile when it's trying to dig a 1050mb high into Wyoming . CMC for the past day or two has been running warmer than the other two but with a further south track

Euro earlier today was colder

[JayDT]

Is it just me or is the CMC suggesting a more southern storm track?

[TheProfessor]

Ah the 2009 Snow Storm. It might actually be my favorite one, even more so than Snowmaggedon. It's the Closes thing to a blizzard I've been in. I remember the day before it was warm and my friend and I were playing football, it would actually be a month later before the monster snow storm that I began to look at computer models.

[Ntxw]

Ah the 2009 Snow Storm. It might actually be my favorite one, even more so than Snowmaggedon. It's the Closes thing to a blizzard I've been in. I remember the day before it was warm and my friend and I were playing football, it would actually be a month later before the monster snow storm that I began to look at computer models.

That was something else I agree. Snowmaggedon wasn't a blizzard, Christmas Eve was. This storm taught me the relationship between 500mb vorticity and surface features. Something about the southern Rockies topography has to play a role on southerly tracks. If you youtube videos of NW areas like in Bridgeport and Decatur, you'd think it was North Dakota with the howling winds. Last March the snowstorm was similar conditions though the winds were not as strong as 09.

[TheProfessor]

Is it just me or is the CMC suggesting a more southern storm track?

Further South and Slower it looks like

[TeamPlayersBlue]

While it wasnt snowing here that night, i remember the 30 degree temps and 30 MPH wind very much going to church. Was not fun at all.

[Brent]

Tornado Watch east of DFW until 7am

[Ntxw]

Man the Euro is so far south initially in Northern Mexico. I mean the ULL is in Chihuahua, MX unlike coming out of New Mexico for the panhandle hookers

[Ntxw]

Man the Euro is so far south initially in Northern Mexico. I mean the ULL is in Chihuahua, MX unlike coming out of New Mexico for the panhandle hookers

Then it takes a sharp turn north confining snow to the western 1/3rd of Texas from Abilene to Midland and all points north of there. Still though lots of time to fine tune track.

Plenty of rain before all that. If this run is right then DFW would be 10" over the 1991 previous record. In a blink of an eye DFW goes from dry December so far to top 10 wettest

[Brent]

Man the Euro is so far south initially in Northern Mexico. I mean the ULL is in Chihuahua, MX unlike coming out of New Mexico for the panhandle hookers

Then it takes a sharp turn north confining snow to the western 1/3rd of Texas from Abilene to Midland and all points north of there. Still though lots of time to fine tune track.

Plenty of rain before all that. If this run is right then DFW would be 10" over the 1991 previous record. In a blink of an eye DFW goes from dry December so far to top 10 wettest

Amazing how that would fit the pattern of October/November too... nothing noteworthy til the final 10 days...

[gpsnowman]

Wow, some excellent posts after I went to sleep last night. Hoping the good trends continue this morning.

[TheProfessor]

6z GFS is a Super close call to being a decent snow event in DFW if that Freezing line were to push east 30-40 miles a few hours earlier.

Edit: NWS FWD's Morning AFD Said that the models could be mishandling the shallow cold airmass, if this is the case I wouldn't be surprised if the front moved in a bit faster like the shallow air masses seem to do.

[SouthernMet]

Like others have alluded... GFS may be underestimating the arctic air at the sfc a bit as well...

[Ralph's Weather]

Things sure are interesting. With the holiday festivities of the next couple days hopefully we can get a decent idea of the path of this by this evening, though that seems unlikely.

[Yukon Cornelius]

STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERNNORTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND



IT WILL NOT BE A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS BUT IT COULD BE A WHITE AFTER CHRISTMAS WEEKEND FOR SOME. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AFFECTING THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK

THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. RAIN WILL
INITIALLY BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FRIDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO A
TRANSITION TO WINTER PRECIPITATION FOR SOME SATURDAY NIGHT. WINTER
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION


MOST LIKELY SNOW

WILL BE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH A
WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL

AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA

AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE AREA BY MONDAY.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
WEEKEND WHICH COMBINED WITH THE WINTER PRECIPITATION COULD LEAD TO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SOME AREAS THIS WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINTER PRECIPITATION

SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS HEAVY RAIN
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.

THERE ARE STILL A NUMBER OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
SUCH AS THE TIMING

PATH THAT THE SYSTEM TRAVELS

AND HOW MUCH
COLD AIR WILL BE IN THE AREA. THESE FACTORS WILL ALL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON WHAT KIND OF WINTER PRECIPITATION OCCURS

WHERE IT
WILL OCCUR

AND HOW MUCH WINTER PRECIPITATION THE AREA WILL
RECEIVE. HOWEVER

TRAVEL CONDITIONS COULD BE IMPACTED SO IF YOU
PLAN ON TRAVELING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY CHECK THE FORECAST
OFTEN FOR THE LATEST UPDATES

ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND
WHEN THE DETAILS ABOUT THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

[Portastorm]

The 6z GFS has snow perilously close to the Portastorm Weather Center, so I know it can't be true. If it shows freezing drizzle, then we're buying.

Seriously, this storm system appears to be the real deal. We'll have a ton of holiday travelers across the state ... during a time when a major storm system featuring blizzard conditions on one end and severe storms on the other is occurring. Folks need to stay aware of latest forecasts. We all should do what we can to alert our friends/families.