Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Kelarie]

I am in far west Texas, so far I am 5 minutes into New Mexico...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
415 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...Confidence increasing that a major winter storm will impact the area this holiday weekend...

Before we deal with the upcoming winter storm, we have several mild days ahead of us. A Pacific front that moved through Tuesday evening
will bring temperatures down slightly (still above normal) from what we saw yesterday. Stronger winds will continue to mix down across
the Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains so will continue the NPW through the afternoon. Another weak mid level wave will pass
overhead Thursday bringing nothing but a few high clouds to the region.

By Christmas day we begin to see a major, large scale pattern change as an upper trough develops to our west. Ahead of the system we
will see increasing high clouds and continued warm temperatures Christmas day as highs climb into the 60`s and 70`s. Now on to this weekend. The upper trough will continue to dig and develop into a cut-off low over the Desert SW Saturday morning. Meanwhile cold air will gather and head south down the Plains behind a strong cold front, arriving in West Texas and SE NM during the day Saturday. Temperatures will plummet behind the front with
northerly winds increasing to 20 to 30 mph. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the front across mainly the eastern Permian Basin. Then, precipitation will begin to develop to our west Saturday afternoon amid increasing ascent and large scale lift. The upper low is then forecast to track east over the region Sunday before exiting late Monday. Models have finally come into better agreement and forecast soundings indicate that
the cold air will deepen quickly and rain will change over to snow over much of the area late Saturday. This synoptic set-up is one that historically has produced heavy amounts of snow across our region. To add to this, strong winds behind the front combined with the heavy snow may produce, dear I say it, near blizzard conditions for parts of the area Saturday night and Sunday. Even though heavy snow appears likely, it is still too early to nail
down amounts. Based on the current forecast, locations along and north of I-10 appear most likely to see the heaviest snow. Small perturbations in the track of the low will have large affects on snow amounts.

We will continue to refine the forecast as we get closer and winter weather headlines are almost a certainty in the coming days. If
you or someone you know is planning on traveling this weekend anywhere across West Texas or New Mexico, now is the time to start
thinking about alternate plans as travel will be impacted. Temperatures look to stay rather cool into much of next week, especially in locations that see heavy snow.

[TheProfessor]

12z GFS is a bit further southeast of the 6z. The Low actually moves a bit Northwest though on the 12z.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'd say so... Low moves over Houston Metro.

[Ralph's Weather]

12z GFS is a bit further southeast of the 6z.

Yep, gets light snow into Dallas County early Monday.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'm not sure I buy off on the surface features here. I have a feeling our friends in DFW will get a 2009 surprise, and possibly our Piney Woods friends as well.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

12Z Canadian pushes snow into the I-35 corridor for north Texas.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Getting interesting for you guys. Last one seemed a bit more north. If we can get the ridge near the Sargassa Sea to weaken a bit earlier, maybe it will dig a bit more.

[Ralph's Weather]

I'm not sure I buy off on the surface features here. I have a feeling our friends in DFW will get a 2009 surprise, and possibly our Piney Woods friends as well.

I am feeling pretty strongly about this. I would love for it to push on east another 75 miles from 2009 to get my house in on the snow.

[Brent]

GFS also has a storm on New Years Day with some snow on the northern side in N/C TX

Times are changing...



and here's the new CMC for the post-Christmas storm:

[Ralph's Weather]

GFS also has a storm on New Years Day with some snow on the northern side in N/C TX

Times are changing...

Yep, it shows winter precip from C TX through E TX on New Year's Day. Next week will be a cold one with temps maybe not reaching 45 with bookend winter weather events.

[Brent]

GFS also has a storm on New Years Day with some snow on the northern side in N/C TX

Times are changing...

Yep, it shows winter precip from C TX through E TX on New Year's Day. Next week will be a cold one with temps maybe not reaching 45 with bookend winter weather events.

It has teens for DFW and Austin on the morning of January 2nd...

[Ralph's Weather]

It has teens for DFW and Austin on the morning of January 2nd...

-14 at El Paso would have to be a record.

[Snowman67]

It has teens for DFW and Austin on the morning of January 2nd...

-14 at El Paso would have to be a record.

You are correct. -8F is the lowest temp recorded in El Paso, which occurred on 1/11/1962

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/epz/?n=elpaso_extreme_weather

[TheProfessor]

The 12z tracks + The models often struggling with the intensity and speed of shallow cold air could make thing really interesting for The Metroplex and Oklahoma City.

[TexasF6]

It's coming....Brace Yourselves!!!! I have been modelwatching? The lines are getting closer and closer to me and hopefully Porta, who's in a No Winter Wx Fun Funk. Bring it on!!!

[Ntxw]

This is going to be a forecasting nightmare. ULL track is so important in this case as well as surface low for moisture. Bowling balls with their own minds are tough

[gatorcane]

Yep CMC has much of the United States in the icebox to start the year. Kindaof reminding me of the 2009-2010 winter with way above normal December temps and way below normal in January on the other extreme:

[JayDT]

Did the 12z Euro take a more southern track too?

[gatorcane]

Did the 12z Euro take a more southern track too?

12Z image below, looks robust for sure with plenty of cold air intruding into Texas:

[Ralph's Weather]

Memories of 09-10 winter are returning. Hope we do get multiple biggies with this being the first. Gonna have to get a major PV disruption or likely a PV split for that though. The STJ when active has had huge amounts of moisture and deep upper level lows.