Florida Weather

#10201 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Dec 22, 2015 4:03 pm

Well, well now, the ECMWF has changed its tune and is now going more with the GFS showing a big trough heading east over the Central United States with plenty of cold air behind it. If we could extend this run out, it probably would show that cold air intruding into the SE United States and Florida:

#10202 Postby **psyclone** » Tue Dec 22, 2015 4:25 pm

cool. literally. FWIW the 8-14 day outlook shows normal/below normal temps creeping eastward relative to the 6-10 day and that trend has persisted for awhile. Since we're experiencing record/near record highs it only stands to reason that at least some cooling will take place. IIRC the January outlook shows normal temps for FL. After a near record warm December that would imply an eventual turn to much cooler weather..

#10203 Postby **northjaxpro** » Tue Dec 22, 2015 5:15 pm

God I hope so!! This August weather we are having at Christmas time is beyond ridiculous, even for us Floridians.

If we don't get some decent cool spells soon, the mosquitoes are going to overtake us down here. I dread to think how bad they will be going to the Spring and Summer of 2016.

#10204 Postby **Ntxw** » Tue Dec 22, 2015 7:08 pm

+PNA coming with some neutral -EPO. Good signal to push the ridge out into the open Atlantic. May not be arctic but at least the ridiculous warmth will return to normal levels.

#10205 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Dec 22, 2015 9:16 pm

Impressive, this "Godzilla El Nino" is really causing some big deviations to the norm...with training of cells developing around my locale with the type of rains you would see in summer.

OUR EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING FLIGHT WAS SHORT, BUT GPS MET DATA
SHOWS THE PWAT AT MIAMI AT 2.0 INCHES THIS EVENING. THIS IS
IMPRESSIVE...AND IS THE MAXIMUM HISTORICAL PWAT RECORDED ON THIS
DATE.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Sanibel · #10206 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 12:39 pm

Saw those convective cells on radar yesterday. Unusual for dry season.

#10207 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 1:56 pm

GFS continues advertising the pattern change come the new year. Oh and the CMC is now showing this pattern change too with much below normal temps for the SE United States and Florida:

GFS:

CMC:

HURRICANELONNY · #10208 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 2:59 pm

gatorcane wrote:GFS continues advertising the pattern change come the new year. Oh and the CMC is now showing this pattern change too with much below normal temps for the SE United States and Florida:

GFS:

CMC:

Show me the euro with this cold air and we have a trifecta :roll:

HURRICANELONNY · #10209 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 4:15 pm

One of these times the long range GFS will be right or even partially right.

For Christmas day and through year's end...the pattern will be
unchanged. A cut off low will move into the Southern Plains with
ridging continuing across the southeastern states. This ridge will
keep frontal systems from reaching South Florida with warm, humid
conditions continuing. Just a few showers will be possible on the
breeze. There is a signal of possible cooling on or just after new
years...but this is uncertain. In the meantime it is the sticky
status quo.

#10210 Postby **psyclone** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 7:48 pm

more signs of hope on the CPC 8-14 day...it now shows normal temps in the panhandle and less obnoxious above normal odds over the peninsula..if we extrapolate recent trends all of fl will be out of the above normal zone soon. just retreating to normal would require a big cooldown relative to the record heat we're experiencing. so it will cool down...next year...and fortunately next year is close at hand..

#10211 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 7:52 pm

latest GFS continues to go colder for the first week in January with a prolonged period of below to much below normal temps for Florida and the SE United States potentially. Long-range but upper 30s down into the SW coast of Florida. Feels a little like the 2009-2010 winter where Florida went from record high temps in December to a prolonged period of record cold temps to start off January...."a little" because we don't see any record cold temps with the models yet but they are trending colder so we'll see.

Bottom-line: a much needed cool down for Florida starting right after the New Year. How cold it gets remains to be seen.

MAJOR pattern change appears to be in the works.

#10212 Postby **psyclone** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 7:57 pm

I'm waiting on the cooler, wet & stormy weather typical of winter el nino to establish itself with a cranking subtropical jet. that would provide interesting, changeable weather for peninsular florida during what is typically a boring (weatherwise) time of the year.

#10213 Postby **NDG** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 8:59 pm

gatorcane wrote:latest GFS continues to go colder for the first week in January with a prolonged period of below to much below normal temps for Florida and the SE United States potentially. Long-range but upper 30s down into the SW coast of Florida. Feels a little like the 2009-2010 winter where Florida went from record high temps in December to a prolonged period of record cold temps to start off January...."a little" because we don't see any record cold temps with the models yet but they are trending colder so we'll see.

Bottom-line: a much needed cool down for Florida starting right after the New Year. How cold it gets remains to be seen.

MAJOR pattern change appears to be in the works.

http://i.imgur.com/QTuQGQ8.png
http://i.imgur.com/96doI5f.png

Word of advise, don't trust the GFS long range forecast, which I know you know

CFSv2 is still persistent in that the NAO will remain mostly positive during most of January, about the only the change that I see is in the PNA becoming more positive for next month, so I would expect a wetter pattern taking place but with the positive NAO (unlike January 2010) don't look for much cold air penetration down the peninsula, in fact the CFSv2 shows near average to above average temps for the Peninsula next month.
Regarding the CFSv2 model, it did very well forecasting this month's sypnotic pattern one month if not two months in advance, I remember JB question it, he thought that December was going to be a much colder month for the eastern US.
So I would not be questioning the CFSv2 forecast for next month if it is having such a good track record so far this meteorological winter.

#10214 Postby **northjaxpro** » Thu Dec 24, 2015 5:41 am

Today likely will be a historic record breaking milestone at the NWS Jacksonville office.

The forecast high temperature today is 85 degrees. The record high for today is 81 degrees set in 1981. The record high temperature for Christmas Day in Jax is 81 degrees set in 2008. If we reach 85 degrees, it will set the all-time highest temperature ever measured in December! We will obliterate these records for today and Christmas Day. We are also obliterating record max minimum temperature records as the morning lows are struggling to barely get below 70 degrees.

I have lived here all my life and I can certainly assure everyone that this is the warmest weather I have ever experienced for the Autumn and Winter season. Ever!! We have already set records across the peninsula for having the warmest November on record and we most certainly will finish with the warmest December ever.

This is just mind-boggling warmth all across Florida and the Eastern United States. It is just way too much of a good thing gor you warm weather lovers. I am just sitting wondering when Mother Nature will ever turn off this persistent blowtorch pattern which has seemingly been in place forever.

Really, this has been an El Nino for the ages , no doubt about it. I agree with NDG in that at this point we probably will not see much of a dramatic change concerning the tanking of the NAO. Hell, we have not seen a dramatic drop in the NAO index in winter since the historic 2009-2010 season across the peninsula.

I often have pointed out how incredibly blessed and fortunate Florida has been lately. Now, more than 10 years and counting without a major hurricane strike and now more than 5 years without having an extreme cold outbreak. I am really starting to think there is some shield over the state.

I am willing to say now that barring some incredible change in the pattern the next couple of months, we may only get just a couple of light freezes if we are lucky. Have not come close to 32 degrees yet and also yet to see a frost. This is really causing big concerns with mosquitoes and without any cold spells coming down the pike, we potentially could have a miserable Spring and Summer dealing with these nagging mosquitoes.

So, for all of you warm weather lovers (psyclone), lol...Congrats! You have had more than your fill of warmth right on through Autumn and Winter to this point.

The sad news for me is that this persistent upper ridge is just not going away anytime soon. It is in complete control for at least the next 10 days.

I am heading to North Carolina for the next few days to enjoy spending time with family for Christmas. It will be just as warm there as it is here.

Just can not get any cold weather.

I want to wish everyone A VERY SAFE AND MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!!!!!! Much joy and peace to all this holiday season!!

#10215 Postby **NDG** » Thu Dec 24, 2015 8:23 am

Merry Christmas to you too northjaxpro, safe travel!

#10216 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Dec 24, 2015 10:50 am

Merry Christmas Jax.

There are signs a pattern change is on the way starting around 8-10 days from now. The GFS insists it will change. You may even be able to get a freeze or two from this pattern as the GFS shows shot after shot of cold air intrusion into the SE U.S and into Florida.

NDG - no doubt the accuracy of the GFS is highly questionable this far out but it has been quite consistent with the cold air into Florida run after run now and lasting for a while. Of course it can be consistently wrong too. lol.

#10217 Postby **psyclone** » Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:26 am

As individual model runs are unreliable I've just taken to relying on the CPC forecasts. They show cooling and I believe them...but I'm not buying big cold or any long term output from the GFS.. Merry Christmas everyone...while it may not feel like Christmas we could do a lot worse than a warm humid holiday..

TheStormExpert · #10218 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Thu Dec 24, 2015 1:40 pm

12z GFS is screaming pattern change for heat-stricken FL and the U.S. East Coast! Of course am I buying it? No.

Reason being it is still in it's 10-15 Day range for one, also the NAO/AO show no signs of tanking negative(despite a +PNA coming). We also have no support from the Euro which has been excellent IMO with forecasting the long range forecasts. Unfortunately I believe the GFS will flop back to a warmer solution again in coming runs.

#10219 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Dec 24, 2015 1:45 pm

I'm actually buying the GFS thinking of a cool down for Florida to start the New Year (Jan 1st or 2nd or so)...the GFS keeps bringing in the timeframe run after run after run. Now going out a bit further into next week look at this. Not sure I buy how cold the GFS is going here. :cold:

TheStormExpert · #10220 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Thu Dec 24, 2015 1:49 pm

gatorcane wrote:I'm actually buying the GFS thinking of a cool down for Florida to star the New Year (Jan 1st or 2nd or so)...the GFS keeps bringing in the timeframe run after run after run. Now going out a bit further into next week look at this:

Yes it does show it staying cool everyday for the 10-15 day period starting January 1st, but until it continues to consistently bring in the timeframe for the next few days at least or the Euro comes on board I'm being weary of it. :wink:

Still hoping and wishing though that exactly what it shows is true! :cold:

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