Texas Winter 2015-2016

[1900hurricane]

With the upcoming weekend system, something else to watch for is the following impulse. Fujiwara between the two may be what is kicking out the system faster in model depictions than what would normally be expected.

[JayDT]

Since I keep bringing it up and getting people excited Here is the 2009 Christmas eve blizzard timeline from the 09-10 winter thread. If you have spare time take a read. One of the best arguments between most of us vs an infamous poster who turned out right. It's a fun read.

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106895&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=1460

I read thru the posts, and wow that was crazy! Going thru the posts i can see why you keep mentioning the Christmas Eve storm of 09. There really are a lot of similarities!

[Brent]

Does the euro have snow in DFW?

[Ntxw]

Does the euro have snow in DFW?

It does not. It has measurable snow in eastland and parallel points. A foot near Abilene. However the trend even for the euro is further south and east

[TheProfessor]

If things were to line up exactly perfectly could this be an even greater storm than the Christmas eve one?

[Ralph's Weather]

If things were to line up exactly perfectly could this be an even greater storm than the Christmas eve one?

Snow totals wise, it seems so just because of the incredible moisture we have available this year. A 534 dm 500mb low crossing the state with a sub 1000 mb surface low over the eastern part of the state and an Arctic high over the top. This is about an ideal scenario for big snow in TX.

[gboudx]

Steve McCauley still doesn't see big wintry precip from this. Below is only pertinent discussion abut the wintry precip potential. We're still driving back to Dallas area on Sunday. Looks like fun.

The snow and icy mix will spread into western portions of north Texas by Sunday night. There remains no evidence of snow or ice for the DFW area through midnight Sunday night.

BUT...and here is where it gets a little tricky as we mentioned last night. IF the precipitation can keep going into Monday, it would be possible for there to be a brief window of opportunity for snow to move into the local area as the storm system exits into Oklahoma and cold air continues to drain into north Texas.

I have not yet run the Stat Method out beyond midnight Sunday night to see if this has any legitimacy, but that will be one of my tasks for later today.

IF the Stat Method suggests that the precipitation will linger into Monday, brief snow chances would go up. IF, however, the SM shuts the precipitation down early, then no snow will occur at all in the Metroplex. But it should be emphasized that either way, no icy travel problems would result in our area. It is west Texas that will likely be buried in snow and ice this weekend.

[gatorcane]

Can somebody point out in a satellite image what feature this low develops from? Seems like wherever this low spawns from has origins from something over the Pacific at the moment?

[starsfan65]

The local weatherpeople here in Dallas are scared of putting snow in the forecast Sunday and Monday.

[srainhoutx]

Can somebody point out in a satellite image what feature this low develops from? Seems like wherever this low spawns from has origins from something over the Pacific at the moment?

The shortwave is about 500 miles WNW of Seattle racing into the digging Western trough where another shortwave is carving out the Southern extent near/over the Baja Peninsula.

[Ntxw]

I'd love to see a coastal low develop and head due north/ne. Especially with such a wound up system like this, lots of moisture to wrap around

[Jarodm12]

Here's what the 12z euro is saying, http://imgur.com/a/PXGuw

as others have said i lean towards DFW area seeing snow, and would not be surprised one bit if we did.

[gatorcane]

Can somebody point out in a satellite image what feature this low develops from? Seems like wherever this low spawns from has origins from something over the Pacific at the moment?

The shortwave is about 500 miles WNW of Seattle racing into the digging Western trough where another shortwave is carving out the Southern extent near/over the Baja Peninsula.

Thanks, I see it now. I circled it. This is a very distinct feature on the WV loops and you are right it is on the move!

[Jarodm12]

http://imgur.com/Yhmi0Eu

and one more for you all

[Brent]

FWD has "rain or snow" In the zone forecast for Sunday night even for Dallas county

[Ntxw]

FWD has "rain or snow" In the zone forecast for Sunday night even for Dallas county

Ghosts of Xmas Eve 09 it haunts them for the high wind warnings in tandem with snow advisories when the blizzard was raging in NW areas

[Jarodm12]

FWD has "rain or snow" In the zone forecast for Sunday night even for Dallas county

Brent where are you seeing that? On my end it still says rain 38degrees

[Portastorm]

Meanwhile, the heat is on. Austin Bergstrom at 3 pm was at 82 degrees, tying a record high set in 1947. Camp Mabry is at 80, a degree shy of a record. Some way to run Christmas weather! Bah humbug!

We've got to wrestle the controls for the thermostat away from wxman57!

[Portastorm]

Here is what Brent was talking about:

TXZ119-241015-
DALLAS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...DALLAS
219 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.CHRISTMAS DAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY NOON.
CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. WARMER. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH
BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. COOLER.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN
OR SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.

[Brent]

Larry mowry on channel 11 just said "a little snow" possible

Its starting