Texas Winter 2015-2016

[hriverajr]

Because 300+ hours out is so reliable for any model ....


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_48.png

What the hell is that big hole over Del Rio..:p

[dhweather]

Because 300+ hours out is so reliable for any model ....


What the hell is that big hole over Del Rio..:p

I'm pretty sure that the dome over Rockwall County was disloged and moved south.

[TheProfessor]

12z GFS Much further south into Mexico and Much further east near the Texas Border through 96 hours so far.

[hriverajr]

12z GFS Much further south into Mexico and Much further east near the Texas Border through 96 hours so far.

Yes surface low farther south and east. Also appears cold air comes in a little faster. Upper air features a bit faster as well.

[TheProfessor]

The 2 ft Bullseye also shifted east and the GFS has ice occurring in the metroplex before it changes to snow.

[TheAustinMan]

Quick little satellite map I drew up depicting the upper-level area of interest currently sitting over the Pacific northwest and mostly a collection of surface lows and some upper-level vorticities. Also depicted (in yellow) is the forecast track of the incipient upper-level low over Texas and the Eastern US using the 6z/Dec. 24 GFS and, in orange, the 12z/Dec. 24 GFS; both tracks were based around the centers of vorticity in accordance with 500mb wind charts. The red areas are simply areas where the ULL center could end up.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I have now made it to Southern florida where its 80 degrees at 9 am and 75 for a low.

My .02 on the system is this. I think You dallas folk will def see snow. After seeing the consistency of the track and comparing it to the 2009 storm, i think youre in for some fun. The track is VERY similar when it comes to the center of the ULL. With that said, it 2009, that storm maaaaay have had a bit colder air with it but thats not saying this storm doesnt have cold air with it. Some of these storm total predictions are insane. Im excited for you guys and please be careful while chasing these storms.
2009 storm for reference
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2009/us1224.php

Finally, im starting to finally get excited about some winter weather for us now. The pattern seems to be changing judging on long range models, ensembles, MJO etc. Things are coming together.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I asked Santa for a foot of snow in January for Montgomery County

[gboudx]

From jeff:

***Powerful…high impact…storm system to affect TX this weekend.***

Impacts across the state likely to include:

· Severe weather including tornadoes
· Heavy rainfall and flooding
· Winter Weather with blizzard conditions

Today-Christmas Day:
Sea fog has made its return to the nearshore waters and inland bays this morning and progressed inland over portions of SE TX. Strong low level inversion around 900mb will result in only slow improvement in visibilities this morning and locations along the coast may stay fogged in much of the day as high dewpoint air mass begins to advect over the cooler shelf waters. Warm front begins to take shape overnight along the coast while a short wave approaches in the SW flow aloft out of MX. Will likely see an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity after midnight-the morning hours of Christmas Day over the region as the warm front returns northward, moisture increases and broad divergence of upper level wind field develops. There could be a few strong or even isolated severe thunderstorms Friday morning especially along and E of I-45, but this threat looks marginal at the moment.

Temperatures will continue to run extremely warm for this time of year with near record values today-Saturday. Actual high temperatures will depend greatly on how much sun can penetrate the cloud cover and fog resulting in warming. As was the case yesterday…sunshine… warmed many sites to record highs for 12-23.

Weekend:
A compact and potent upper level system currently approaching the NW US coast will dive SE into the SW US Friday and into N MX on Saturday. Broad warm sector air mass will develop over eastern TX with surface dewpoints rising into the upper 60’s to near 70 as current western Caribbean air mass is brought into the area. Large scale height falls will begin to spread into SW TX late Saturday helping to spawn a rapidly intensifying surface low pressure system ahead of the deep upper level storm system. Lead short wave will eject across CO unlocking a cold Canadian air mass southward down the plains on Saturday and into TX. Major models are coming into good agreement on the track of the strong upper level system along with heavy rainfall, severe, and winter weather parameters.

Severe:
Warm sector air mass will be moist and unstable by Saturday afternoon across all of central and east TX. Expect ripples of energy in the SW flow aloft to help foster thunderstorm development over the warm sector during the day on Saturday. Increasing wind field may support a marginal severe weather threat across SE TX.

Main period of concern will be Saturday night into Sunday as deepening surface low pressure tracks from SW TX toward Waco and DFW area. Wind field greatly increases Saturday night with strong upper level jet cutting across low level jet maximum. Strong cold front approaching from the NW with strong linear forcing will result in squall line formation. Latest high resolution guidance is showing some potential for discrete cell development east of the surface low over SW TX after dark on Saturday…this would certainly support a tornado threat with backing low level winds east of the surface low track. All severe modes will be possible from Saturday afternoon through Sunday over central and eastern TX. SPC has added a slight risk (cat 2) outline for a large portion of central TX for Saturday and expect a large slight risk to be added for Sunday later today.

Heavy Rainfall/Flooding:
This will certainly be a wet system with near record high moisture values expected to surge inland off the still warm Gulf of Mexico and the connection to tropical moisture in the upper levels from the central Pacific. Strong dynamics will work on all this moisture to produce bands of heavy to excessive rainfall. QPF is maximized over N TX where widespread 5-8 inches will be possible with isolated totals of 10 inches. Rainfall of this magnitude on wet grounds, flooding rivers, and full lakes is going to cause problems. Across SE TX widespread amounts of 1-2 inches appear likely with isolated totals of 3-5 inches especially north of I-10. Most areas will be able to handle this rainfall…but significant run-off will result in rises on area watersheds.

Hydro:
River flooding is already ongoing on the Sabine, Neches, and Trinity Basins and this upcoming rainfall event is only going to add a lot more water on to already troubled watersheds. Upstream flood control/water supply lakes are either into their flood pools or well above their conservation pools levels and flood gate operations are ongoing at many locations. Upcoming weekend situation will not bode well for mainstem rivers with so much water already involved. River flooding is very likely on the Trinity, Neches, and Sabine basins and rises to flood levels on the Navasota and Brazos basins are possible.

Winter Storm:
Strongly dynamic and intensifying cold core upper level storm system will move from SW TX to near/over DFW Sunday/early Monday. Dynamic cooling of the air column under this feature along with moisture wrapping NW around the upper level system will result in a large area of heavy snow and strong winds across much of W TX including the panhandle, Big Country, and Caprock regions. Heavy snow rates under meso scale bands of 1-3 inches per hour will be possible along with surface winds of 50-60mph which will lead to significant blowing and drifting of snow. Portions of NW TX will see crippling blizzard conditions with impossible travel Sunday into Sunday night including Amarillo, Lubbock, Midland and Abilene. Track of the center of the upper level low will determine how far east the rain/snow line migrates. Could see a changeover as far east as DFW by Monday morning back SW into the NW Hill Country. Track of upper low will be far enough to our west to keep the air column above freezing over SE TX. Additionally, SE TX may get dry slotted from the SW on the underside of the upper level low late Sunday night shutting off precipitation fairly quickly.

Cold Air:
Strong Canadian front will cross TX Saturday and Sunday with temperatures rapidly falling behind this boundary. Warm sector air mass will be firmly in the 70’s with post frontal temperatures crashing through the 40’s. Cold air mass will remain in place all of next week with lows in the 30’s and highs in the 50’s.

[Brent]

Some images from the 12z GFS:

[Portastorm]

Quick little satellite map I drew up depicting the upper-level area of interest currently sitting over the Pacific northwest and mostly a collection of surface lows and some upper-level vorticities. Also depicted (in yellow) is the forecast track of the incipient upper-level low over Texas and the Eastern US using the 6z/Dec. 24 GFS and, in orange, the 12z/Dec. 24 GFS; both tracks were based around the centers of vorticity in accordance with 500mb wind charts. The red areas are simply areas where the ULL center could end up.

This is great! Thanks for taking the time to make it and share. A wild weekend looms for many of us.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Some images from the 12z GFS:

If that were to verify I would get hammered in Clay county!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS and Canadian are suggesting a further South track of both the cold core 500mb Upper Low as well as the surface low. The Upper low tracks well South of New Mexico and South of the Big Bend to near or just South of Midland and on East toward Killeen/Waco and then ENE toward Texarkana. The surface low drops SW of Brownsville and then moves NE over Houston and on NE to Shreveport via the GFS and CMC.

[Tireman4]

It is the severe weather that has me watchful....this could be an interesting set of returns this weekend...

[TheProfessor]

There's some unprecedented snow occurring in Eastern Nebraska, if this were to not melt would this help the cold air not modify for us?

[Peanut432]

What does the euro say? Or did we decide to throw it out?

[TheProfessor]

Euro looks to be about 30-50 miles east and stronger this run compared to Yesterday's 12z thru 96 hours.

[srainhoutx]

Euro looks to be about 30-50 miles east and stronger this run compared to Yesterday's 12z thru 96 hours.

Looks like a fairly good agreement via the 12Z suite of deterministic guidance. Tracks of the 500mb low as well as the surface low are similar. I am noticing colder temperatures across most of Texas for Monday morning which makes since with the amount of snow falling with a very brisk and strong cold air advection regime diving S across the Lone Star State.

[JayDT]

So snow chances are going up for DFW area? Sorry, im just so anxious for some snow.

[TheProfessor]

Does anyone know where the frozen precip line for the Euro is?