Texas Winter 2015-2016

[TrekkerCC]

My .02 on the system is this. I think You dallas folk will def see snow. After seeing the consistency of the track and comparing it to the 2009 storm, i think youre in for some fun. The track is VERY similar when it comes to the center of the ULL. With that said, it 2009, that storm maaaaay have had a bit colder air with it but thats not saying this storm doesnt have cold air with it. Some of these storm total predictions are insane. Im excited for you guys and please be careful while chasing these storms.
2009 storm for reference
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2009/us1224.php

I am trying to look at the records for 2009. As far as I can tell, the air up north wasn't much colder than it is now, and in places might be even colder than it was before the 2009 event. So I think that we don't have to worry about the cold air being cold enough. Right now, we are seeing teens in the northern tier states and single digits and below zero in Canada. Mighty cold air, especially if it drops south due to arctic high pushing it down.

Interesting fact, on 12/23/2009, the high at DFW was 75 degrees before the front, it dropped all the following day (12/24) into the 20s with 3" of snow recorded at DFW.

[TheProfessor]

it seems like every model that goes out far enough on Tropical Tidbits had an eastern shift at 12z

[gatorcane]

I have now made it to Southern florida where its 80 degrees at 9 am and 75 for a low.

My .02 on the system is this. I think You dallas folk will def see snow. After seeing the consistency of the track and comparing it to the 2009 storm, i think youre in for some fun. The track is VERY similar when it comes to the center of the ULL. With that said, it 2009, that storm maaaaay have had a bit colder air with it but thats not saying this storm doesnt have cold air with it. Some of these storm total predictions are insane. Im excited for you guys and please be careful while chasing these storms.
2009 storm for reference
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2009/us1224.php

Finally, im starting to finally get excited about some winter weather for us now. The pattern seems to be changing judging on long range models, ensembles, MJO etc. Things are coming together.

Was outside on my patio swatting away mosquitoes here on Christmas Eve. Unbelievable. Even for South Florida this weather is warm this time of year.

But the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting a pattern change come first week in January....

Latest ECMWF brings a second potent shot of cold air to Texas and deep south also with this pattern change.

Looks similar to what happened this time of year during the 2009-2010 winter doesn't it?

[dhweather]

In 4,244 hours, the CMC has a CAT 5 IN THE GULF !!!!


Man, it is beautiful outside, sunny and 75. This is going to be one of those situations where the path of the low will have major impacts. 50 miles in either direction will mean a lot to someone.

[TheProfessor]

Apparently as of last night Omaha was forecasted to only get 1-2 inches of snow, they ended up getting 8 inches. Though it will get a few degrees above freezing there with clouds so some of the snow will probably melt. But if there is snow left this weekend that should help slow some modification of cold air right?

[Brent]

The pattern looks really fun as we go into January... Weather channels app has rain/snow the night of January 5th and we've seen other hints for another storm, certainly not going to be dull around here

[TheProfessor]

Flash Flood Watches issued for most of the Metroplex, FWD calling for 3-6 inches within the watch area with locally higher amounts.

[Brent]

Blizzard watch west of Lubbock, snow drifts up to 10 feet mentioned!!!

[TheProfessor]

Seems like the models are having the colder air coming later, The end of the SREF has DFW at 57 degrees at 6z Monday and the 12z GFS has us at 50 degrees 6z Monday when it had us at 41 degrees at that time during one of the Wednesday runs. Edit: I think the SREF is just warm for most of the state, it has Abilene at 33 degrees 6z Monday and Wichita Falls at 38 degrees. Both of those places seem to be below freezing at that time on the GFS.

[SouthernMet]

Im gonna call it right now... Someone in NW tx is going to see some INSANE drifts from this. 3-4 ft is not out of the question, where the deformation bands set up.

"SNOW DRIFTS UP TO 10 FEET ARE POSSIBLE."

[wxman57]

Just got through mowing my lawn. It's a pleasant 81 degrees. Second best Christmas Eve ever. First best was the 2004 Christmas Eve snow miracle. I do like snow, but if it's not going to snow then I want it warm!

[Yukon Cornelius]

NWS has called for 4-8" of snow as of right now. I'm wondering if I can expect more with the way it's predicted to track?

[SouthernMet]

Blizzard Watch for Amarillo now.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
406 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

TXZ001-002-006>008-011>013-016>018-250615-
/O.NEW.KAMA.BZ.A.0001.151227T0000Z-151228T1800Z/
DALLAM-SHERMAN-HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DALHART...STRATFORD...HARTLEY...
CHANNING...DUMAS...BORGER...VEGA...AMARILLO...PANHANDLE...
WHITE DEER...HEREFORD...CANYON...CLAUDE
406 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

* WINDS AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH. VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 INCHES OR MORE ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING A FOOT POSSIBLE.

* WIND CHILLS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS AND COULD BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE IN THESE CONDITIONS.

[Tireman4]

Just got through mowing my lawn. It's a pleasant 81 degrees. Second best Christmas Eve ever. First best was the 2004 Christmas Eve snow miracle. I do like snow, but if it's not going to snow then I want it warm!

Ughh. Just ughh. I mean, I swear..if it is Christmas,,,geez make it cold.....my goodness gracious..

[Tireman4]

From HGX AFD::

FXUS64 KHGX 242158
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
358 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STARTING TO SEE A FEW MORE ECHOES ON THE RADAR THIS AFTN AS DEEPER
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF. NOT SEEING ANY OBS OF
ACTUAL RAINDROPS HITTING THE ACTUAL GROUND AT THIS POINT BUT IT IS
JUST LIKELY A MATTER OF TIME. PCPN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZ-
ED TONIGHT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA
ALONG WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE FROM THE SW. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS/
SHEAR PROFILES COULD STILL BE FIGHTING ISSUES WITH THE CAP SO WILL
KEEP WITH SCT (30-40%) POPS OVERNIGHT. ONLY ISO/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS
EXPECTED X-MAS DAY (GIVEN JUST THE STRONG WAA) ALONG WITH THE CONT-
INUED WARM TEMPS/CLOUDY SKIES.

THE BROAD UPPER TROF (OF LATE) OVER THE WRN CONUS IS STILL PROGGED
TO EVOLVE INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A CUT-OFF
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SW BY SAT. THIS SYSTEM FCST TO
MOVE EAST WITH A DECIDED NEGATIVE TILT...WITH SEVERE WX/HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS HAVE REMAINED IN GEN-
ERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SE TX FROM
LATE SUN MORN FOR THE NW COUNTIES AND THEN TO THE COASTLINE BY THE
LATE AFTN HRS. MUCH COLDER IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIA-
TED COLD FRONT FOR THE DAYS FOLLOWING. LONG RANGE PROGS INDICATING
A RE-INFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR WITH THE QUICK PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW/COLD FRONT NEXT TUES. 41

&&

.MARINE...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND COULD POSSIBLY LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER RIDES COOLER
WATERS NEAR THE COAST. VISIBILITIES WILL VARY BETWEEN LESS THAN 1/4
AND 2 MILES OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS. HAVE EXTENDED
THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW MORNING.

ONSHORE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TOMORROW WILL INCREASE TOMORROW
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS INTENSIFIES. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THE LOW OVER WEST TEXAS SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LINE OF STRONG
STORMS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE W-NW. ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
NE-E BY TUESDAY AND DECREASE IN SPEED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

TIDE LEVELS REMAIN AROUND A FOOT OR SO ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH A
CONTINUED STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...TIDE LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS
HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 3.0 FEET OR LESS. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 65 77 70 80 66 / 30 30 50 50 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 68 79 70 79 68 / 40 30 40 50 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 74 68 75 67 / 30 30 30 30 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Just got through mowing my lawn. It's a pleasant 81 degrees. Second best Christmas Eve ever. First best was the 2004 Christmas Eve snow miracle. I do like snow, but if it's not going to snow then I want it warm!

IMO, it was absolutely disgusting today no matter the season, but being on Christmas Eve made it especially disgusting.

[TheProfessor]

18z GFS is definitely a lot slower with the arrival of cold air.

[starsfan65]

How slow is the cold air in this latest computer model? Maybe is just a blip on the radar.

[hriverajr]

18z GFS is definitely a lot slower with the arrival of cold air.

I did not really notice that.....

[TheProfessor]

18z GFS is definitely a lot slower with the arrival of cold air.

I did not really notice that.....

It doesn't have DFW reaching freezing until after 0z Tuesday while the previous 3 have it DFW getting to freezing either on or before 0z Tuesday.