Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

Storm coming ashore down California, model runs the next 24 hours will likely start converging. On top of the fact it is getting even closer.

Euro maintains a rather cold and stormy look to climatological peak in terms of averages for winter through the first two weeks of January. This will likely be the first of many wintry weather threats across our state as it seems we are retrograding the Aleutian trough away from Alaskan into the Bering, and PNA ridge in NW NA

[Ntxw]

0z GFS has a quick changeover to sleet and snow for DFW and points parallel and to the west with 30-40mph winds Sunday night into Monday morning. Snow Maxima in the SW counties and in SW Oklahoma

[TheProfessor]

Yeah the 0z Has DFW reaching 32 by 12z Monday, and that's if the model has a good handle on the speed of the arctic air. I know the models missed the timing of the freezing temps on Topeka Kansas when I was there for Thanksgiving, I don't know if it arrived earlier here in Texas, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happened again.

[TheProfessor]

0z GFS also has it dropping into the 20s for my area in Southern Denton County on Monday, any water left on the roads would likely freeze.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS also has it dropping into the 20s for my area in Southern Denton County on Monday, any water left on the roads would likely freeze.

Yeah it's rather cold. And the winds with this system is very strong. Better watch those outdoor decorations and if snow does fall it will be near blizzard conditions.Travel West of I-35 in NW and W Texas will likely be very dangerous. I think the Christmas Eve 09 comparison has some merit. This system may even travel a little further south and east than that one.

[Brent]

Wow... 16 inches just southwest of Fort Worth...

Edited because this is a better map

[Ntxw]

Interesting heavy band into Fort Worth but still a sharp cutoff over Dallas:

It would be worth the quick drive chase

[TheProfessor]

If the Euro begins to cave more into the GFS then I feel sorry for who ever has to do the short term forecasting this weekend at NWS

[TheProfessor]

Interesting heavy band into Fort Worth but still a sharp cutoff over Dallas:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_17.png

It would be worth the quick drive chase

Yeah I live a mile north of the Southern Denton County Border so that would just be a 15-20 minutes drive barring no dangerous roads to get there.

[Ntxw]

GFS also has some flurries or some light stuff Weds. It's the digging shortwave behind this system, quite vigorious but the previous model runs had no moisture return for it. But sometimes, when the vorticity is strong systems can find moisture out of the little there is.

[Brent]

Ashton on WFAA just said you won't have to shovel Monday... famous last words?

[Ntxw]

Ashton on WFAA just said you won't have to shovel Monday... famous last words?

That somehow reminded me of this

https://youtu.be/kpxiCxO5k0g

[TheProfessor]

Ashton on WFAA just said you won't have to shovel Monday... famous last words?

Well even with 2-3 inches of snow when you have near blizzard conditions you can get drifts of 10 inches sometimes (it happened in 2009) so some people might have to shovel because of the wind.

[Ntxw]

0z Canadian outcome would likely be a significant winter storm for all of west and north Texas. Central TX->Arklatex track so south with a coastal low coming up to our east

So basically right now it's all the other models vs the Euro on track

[TheProfessor]

0z Canadian outcome would likely be a significant winter storm for all of west and north Texas. Central TX->Arklatex track so south.

The American weather website model has 2-6 inches for all of Denton County with 0z Canadian, They use a different conversion algorithm from tropical tidbits though, I've noticed the American Weather model page is usually a little bit less with the snowfall.

[Ntxw]

0z Canadian outcome would likely be a significant winter storm for all of west and north Texas. Central TX->Arklatex track so south.

The American weather website model has 2-6 inches for all of Denton County with 0z Canadian, They use a different conversion algorithm from tropical tidbits though, I've noticed the American Weather model page is usually a little bit less with the snowfall.

I wouldn't be too concerned with amounts yet. As long as the trend is colder aloft, and colder surface. QPF starts good in W Texas but really maximizes in the deformation over North Texas and Central-Eastern Oklahoma. You nudge those temps a little bit and as you said before complete nightmare for NWS forecasters.

[Ntxw]

Here is the upper air sounding from the GFS near Fort Worth



It is an ideal snow sounding. Freezing or below throughout the column and dendritic growth zone is very sizeable

[gatorcane]

00Z GFS location of storm over Texas - looks like a slight shift to the east this run:

[TarrantWx]

A couple of tornado warnings in California today speak to the strength and upper dynamics involved with this system.

[Brent]

0z CMC, interestingly it also has totals over a foot SW of Fort Worth in the same spot almost like the GFS