Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

Well the ECMWF is gradually coming in more alignment with the GFS on the colder than normal air pushing into the deep south. In this run below it is all sitting a little north of Florida but pushing southward on day 10. Look at all the N and NW winds across the Eastern 2/3 of the U.S. bringing in the colder air from Canada. Also the trough is not quite as amplified along the Eastern coast of the US than what the GFS shows. Pattern change starting first week in January looking increasingly likely.

[gatorcane]

From NWS Miami: Like their #WHEREISWINTER comment. lol

ANY COOL AIR IN SIGHT? WELL, GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL CHANGE AROUND NEW YEARS DAY OR SO WITH A POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT THEN. HOWEVER, THIS IS FAR OUT IN TIME AND SO THE DEGREE OF
COOLING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING
THAN THE ECMWF. IN THE MEANTIME, WE WILL REMAIN THE STEAMY STATUS
QUO THROUGH YEARS END. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN AT 70F+ THROUGH NEW
YEARS...A PERSISTENCE THAT REALLY IS AMAZING FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. #WHEREISWINTER

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[NDG]

When I see the AO & NAO tanking into negative territory will I buy the GFS showing 30s getting into SW FL, otherwise nothing more than 40s for central FL, 50s for S FL at times, if at all.

Merry Christmas to all

[gatorcane]

The 00Z GFS is trending colder with a freeze into Central Florida and 36F in Miami:

The cold air invades Florida Jan 1st and it sticks around for a while (at least 5+ days) of below to potentially well below normal temps.

Merry Christmas to all

[psyclone]

when was the last time we saw that sort of a temp schematic in real life over that portion of the country? needless to say I don't buy the gfs...but it may be onto something ....the CPC 8-14 day now shows below normal over the western panhandle and normal temps down to the I-4 corridor and it has been trending cooler with time. a big cool down is likely...no way we sprint with record highs the whole winter..even a return to normal requires a big drop...

[NDG]

The Euro's forecast is more realistic, IMO.
Latest 06z GFS is not as aggressive as its previous run.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS continues showing the cold but not like the 00Z run, coldest night shown below, still compared to what we have been seeing this would feel rather chilly for sure. Also do note it is a prolonged period of below normal temperatures for the peninsula not just a quick shot that we have seen the past couple of times, so having this cool and at times potentially downright cold and chilly air around for that long will be quite a noticeable change. One other thing I am also seeing with is that the daily highs across the peninsula don't warm up a great deal with highs not making out of the 50s for Central Florida for several days in a row.

[psyclone]

The 8-14 day day now has all of Florida at or below normal. The trend is favoring cooler weather.

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS continues showing a prolonged period of below normal temps for Florida first week in January. This run of the GFS is the most aggressive so far with the duration of the cooling event showing below to much below normal temps for 7 of the 8 days between Jan 2nd and Jan 8th.

The ECMWF is also showing below normal temps and a deepening trough over the Eastern United States by day 10:

[Sanibel]

Ft Myers: Record high 87*

Naples: Record high 89*

[MetroMike]

Tampa record high 86 this also equals the highest temp for any December on record.

[NDG]

As I thought, the GFS is little by little retreating its aggressiveness on forecasted morning lows for the first week in January.
Yes the PNA is going positive which will help in pushing the heat ridge back down to the deep tropics but what is missing is the negative NAO which helps in the core of the cold air to penetrate the peninsula.
It looks like the subtropical jet stream will be over the Peninsula while the "cooler" air moves in so it meanls some days could be very cool during the day with highs only in the 50s & 60s, but the same cloud cover will keep morning lows not as cold.

[northjaxpro]

Greetings from Raleigh, NC. Hope everyone had a terrific Christmas Day yesterday. I am having a wonderful time with family this weekend here.

A record high was set here yesterday of 75 degrees. The family here and folks in general are just shocked at this warm weather being experienced.

I see we are still baking back at home with record breaking high temps all across the peninsula as this strong, persisent heat ridge continues to flex its muscles.

I have been away the past couple of days, so I have not observed the models much except what I have seen you all post here on the threads. It does finally appear we will cool off after the start of 2016 next week. But, the lack of an -AO or -NAO will not bring very cold air down into Florida anytime soon.

However, I will take a cooldown of any sort right now. At least get us back to average temps this time of year, which in Jax is highs in the low-mid 60s and lows in the lower 40s.

Have a great rest of the holiday weekend everyone!! I will be back home on Monday.

[AdamFirst]

The 00Z GFS is trending colder with a freeze into Central Florida and 36F in Miami:

The cold air invades Florida Jan 1st and it sticks around for a while (at least 5+ days) of below to potentially well below normal temps.

Hoping that forecast verifies. I want this warmth to scram for awhile!

[psyclone]

the big cool down is now showing on my nws forecast with a high next Saturday of 66. that would be a few degrees below normal and the coolest day so far this winter.

[gatorcane]

The overnight run of the GFS has come in colder though the 06Z has backed off a little but still show upper 30s to lower 40s across Central Florida. Still cooler weather is on the way and some potentially chilly weather at times, so BIG changes on the way it appears...

[boca]

Too bad it won't last more than a day if we are lucky.Until the NAO goes negative here in Florida the winter that never started is cancelled.

[gatorcane]

NDG, yes, it does appear there will be an active subtropical JET even once the cold front(s) move through starting just after New Year's. Highs don't appear to make it out of the 50s for Central FL and 60s for South Florida for a couple of days next week and barely into the 60s into Central Florida for one of them. Lows in the 40s look quite widespread across Central Florida with 50s across South Florida (away from the SE Coast of Florida) well. One night, the GFS shows a low of 43F in Miami (Jan 5th)! Going to feel like winter (for Florida standards) for sure.

[NDG]

Gatorcane, notice how the GFS's forecast of lows in the 30s for central and parts of south FL keeps being left behind past its 8 day range forecast, as time gets closer the GFS gets warmer. Not to say that we will definitely see a cool down starting Jan 1st.
But not until the NAO goes negative will we see anything out of the ordinary.

[psyclone]

Looking forward to the chilly weather. my forecast for next Sunday from the NWS is a chance of showers with a high in the low 60's...that validates the subtropical jet theory...cool and unsettled but not frigid/freeze potential. sounds good to me..