Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

I just saw a tweet from someone who works at the NWS in Ft. Worth say that the storm is moving further south. Im liking this

It will be interesting once the vortmax gets to the big bend of Texas. Some models move due east out of northern MX while others like the Euro starts the NE shift. Currently vortmax is in NW Mexico. Once it kicks out we should see a surface low form in far south Texas.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

I just saw a tweet from someone who works at the NWS in Ft. Worth say that the storm is moving further south. Im liking this

That's great to have that confirmation. Looking at satellite, it definitely appears to be digging more than the NAM and GFS indicate. The RAP appears to be handing the movement pretty well, and the RAP is faster with the cold front than the NAM.

[dhweather]

Merry Christmas everyone !! (a little late, I was busy with the kids)

This morning feels like tornado weather, from time to time I'm seeing the sun pop out a little, which raises concerns for discrete storms blowing up before the main event tonight.

If the freaking bermuda high wasn't as stout , we'd probably see snow this weekend. I expect just a cold rain.

[Tireman4]

In the words of Porta...here. we...go.. stay save everyone..belated Happy Holidays..

[Tireman4]

In the words of Porta...here. we...go.. stay save everyone..belated Happy Holidays..

[TheProfessor]

I just saw a tweet from someone who works at the NWS in Ft. Worth say that the storm is moving further south. Im liking this

It will be interesting once the vortmax gets to the big bend of Texas. Some models move due east out of northern MX while others like the Euro starts the NE shift. Currently vortmax is in NW Mexico. Once it kicks out we should see a surface low form in far south Texas.
http://i66.tinypic.com/2ia77v8.gif

So if it were to move due East we would see a bigger temperature drop here?

[Ntxw]

So if it were to move due East we would see a bigger temperature drop here?

Less likely to be dry slotted once it gets cold enough and more into the deformation band

[TheProfessor]

Hmm, it looks like the HRRR has some discrete cells coming from the south, and then it looks like on it's 16z run that the first line kind of breaks a part over the metroplex and becomes discrete.

[hriverajr]

It's still digging and still will for a while as there is still a strong jet streak on the west side. BTW the winds are howling in the panhandle.

[TheProfessor]

So if it were to move due East we would see a bigger temperature drop here?

Less likely to be dry slotted once it gets cold enough and more into the deformation band

Ok, and if the Trough were to dig a bit more that would cause the ridge to amplify and actually raise today's temperature a bit, right?

[Ntxw]

Ok, and if the Trough were to dig a bit more that would cause the ridge to amplify and actually raise today's temperature a bit, right?

Yeah. This digging nature of the trough is the reason models often struggle with temperatures at the surface and frontal passage. it does warm us up, but sometimes at the surface the HP and cold doesn't always follow the upper features due to their own weight. If this were a positive tilted trough the models would perform a lot better.

[TheProfessor]

It seems like a quite a few short ranged models have a first line developing then breaking apart and becoming discrete either just west, on or just east of the Metroplex.

[TheProfessor]

Btw 12z RGEM has snow for Denton and Tarrant County, that model nailed a few winter storms last year.

[Ntxw]

DFW is almost 80 degrees at noon...jesus

[Brent]

is anyone else concerned about tornadoes today? DFW just hit 78, the warmest it's been all month in a month of warmth...

[orangeblood]

We appear to be on the cusp of one heck of a flip....

[Rgv20]

DFW is almost 80 degrees at noon...jesus

Right now is 83 in my back yard with a forecast high of 91!! Looking on to late next week until the weekend it looks like a potent Cold Front is in the offering! And beyond that it looks like Winter in Texas will be in full swing!

[Brent]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2066
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH AND NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261802Z - 261900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX
AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR. CONCERN IS INCREASING
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MESONET OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A COLD FRONT HAS
ADVANCED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF OK...THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE TX BIG COUNTRY TO SOUTHWEST TX. CURRENTLY...THE NORTHERN
EXTENT FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS IS LIKELY IN VICINITY OF A WARM
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE OKC METRO /SOUTHERN
MCCLAIN AND CLEVELAND COUNTIES/ EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL AR...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. THE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TX
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR IS ALREADY
CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE SPECIAL 18Z FWD
SOUNDING SAMPLED THIS ENVIRONMENT VERY WELL /MODERATE INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE EXCEEDING 1500 J PER KG/...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 50
KT...AND SFC-3 KM SRH EXCEEDING 300 M2 PER S2/...SUPPORTING THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR ORGANIZED ROTATING STORMS. ALTHOUGH STRONGER
DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL TEND TO REMAIN WEST OF THE WARM
SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THIS
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AND FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT POSES CONCERN
FOR A TORNADO THREAT.

STORMS THAT FORM NEAR OR ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
UNDERCUT BY THIS BOUNDARY AND TEND TO POSE A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY
HAIL. REFER TO MCD 2065 FOR THIS ELEVATED HAIL THREAT. THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE ATTENDANT TO NEW UPDRAFTS/STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN NORTH-CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHEAST OK AND
WESTERN AR. ACTIVITY IN THIS REGIME WILL TEND TO TRACK PARALLEL TO
AXES OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN
A LONGER GESTATION PERIOD OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

..PETERS/MEAD.. 12/26/2015

[KatDaddy]

Mesoscale Discussion 2066 for NTX. Tornado Watch to be issued shortly.

[TrekkerCC]

Tornado watch is issued for NC & NE TX, Eastern OK, and West Arkansas.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 569
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM
UNTIL 800 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WACO
TEXAS TO 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT SMITH ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.