Texas Winter 2015-2016

[dhweather]

I know this is not Winter Weather related, but I read this post and thought I would re-post this because this is a very nice site for all who use it. I donated!


Post subject: Re: STORM2K CONTRIBUTIONS AND FINANCIAL UPDATE

PostPosted: Thu Oct 29, 2015 9:31 pm



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Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
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Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 10:31 pm
Posts: 31497
Location: Spring Branch area, Houston, TX

Our current PayPal balance is $925.23. We are paid through November. That leaves us enough to get through April if no more donations come in. That makes me uncomfortable after what we had to go through this past year to bring the site back up. I still have not paid myself back for the $1k+ I personally I paid to bring the site back up to date. If I don't ever get paid back it won't hurt me, but I know several places I could use that kind of money. Just putting it all out for everyone to see. I refuse to lie about the state of this site. I would feel much more comfortable if there were a 1 or better yet a 2 in front of the current amount available. Thanks to SC5, where our current server is located, we are enjoying a $60 a month saving over our old costs with more quite a bit more service than we got from our last host. They are also doing all of the work for our upgrade which is a massive undertaking since our current phpbb is so far out of date. Once that is accomplished we are going to look into other ways to generate funds, but that will not happen till the upgrade is completed.
I have had quite a few supporters say they were going to make a monthly pledge yet I am aware of only one that comes in on a regular basis each month. If you really intended to do that please go back to PayPal and set it up. If you don't that is fine too, but it would be nice to not have to worry about our funding for a while. If we didn't then once we get the upgrade completed we might be able to add improvements.
For anyone reading this that cares to donate please use the donate button at the top of this forum or the donate buttons that are in my or CajunMama's signature. THE DONATE BUTTON ON THE HOME PAGE IS NOT CONNECTED TO OUR CURRENT PAYPAL ACCOUNT.

Thanks for posting this! I just bought us a month. I'll claim August, since that's my best chance for a CAT 5 IN THE GULF !!!!


Happy New Year everyone!

[Brent]

Wakeup!



and DFW stays below freezing for a few days after that...

[Ntxw]

Happy New Year Storm2k!




We ring in the joyous moment with the winter storm threat around the 10th alive and strong! It's coming folks!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I'll claim August, since that's my best chance for a CAT 5 IN THE GULF !!!!

As long as the gfs and Canadian are around doing their thing I think any month may -Nov has equally good chances at cat 5's in the gulf. Also dont forget about the super storm blizzards that should began popping up for the south in the near future now that we are in January

[Brent]

Happy New Year guys!

It's beginning to look a lot like winter...

[TheProfessor]

0z run has some nice snow for me in Ohio. Though it's probably still low to their standards

[EnnisTx]

Bring on the SNOW!!!!

[dhweather]

We start out 2016 with the perpetual "two weeks out" scenario.

Heat Miser himself said no freezes for two weeks, he's probably right. All the bugs aren't dead yet, they NEED TO DIE!!!!

[Ntxw]

Except he the heat miser forgot to mention high's barely get above 50 . Winter is here! Not 2 weeks out . Talk about cherry picking!

January is going to end up 2-5F colder than normal in nearly all guidance as a 30 day period! 180 from December (2nd warmest on record)


It's officially in the books. 2015 goes down as the most rain any of us have seen in our lifetimes in North Texas (and many other areas of Texas as well) on an annual basis. Next closest is a mile back.



If y'all's lawns aren't fixed by all that then something else is wrong. Mother nature doesn't provide much more relief than that!

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Except he the heat miser forgot to mention high's barely get above 50 . Winter is here! Not 2 weeks out . Talk about cherry picking!

January is going to end up 2-5F colder than normal in nearly all guidance as a 30 day period! 180 from December (2nd warmest on record)


It's officially in the books. 2015 goes down as the most rain any of us have seen in our lifetimes in North Texas (and many other areas of Texas as well) on an annual basis. Next closest is a mile back.

http://i68.tinypic.com/10naj6a.jpg

If y'all's lawns aren't fixed by all that then something else is wrong. Mother nature doesn't provide much more relief than that!

I hadn't realized it until this post, but DFW actually more than DOUBLED its normal annual rainfall.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'll take this weather 46 times out of 10 over what we had on Christmas Day! It's crisp!

[TarrantWx]

CIPS Analog Guidance is showing a strong signal of an arctic outbreak the week of Jan 11. Makes sense given the AO is about to crash below 0 (~10 day lag time), the current SSW, and a recent SOI crash. Hopefully the SOI crash will lead to a decent winter storm across the state to usher in the arctic outbreak.

[orangeblood]

For those in South Texas, check out what is showing up in the 8-14 day analogs....January 1985!!!!

[Ntxw]

CIPS Analog Guidance is showing a strong signal of an arctic outbreak the week of Jan 11. Makes sense given the AO is about to crash below 0 (~10 day lag time), the current SSW, and a recent SOI crash. Hopefully the SOI crash will lead to a decent winter storm across the state to usher in the arctic outbreak.

There is probably 3 or 4 systems the models are kind of having issues with. The STJ is active and moving fast, they are having fits at which disturbance is which and which phases when the subtropical jet is so beefed up. Regardless each system will present a wintry side somewhere. And whichever one phases the cold blast will follow. Still thinking the second system (near the 10th) is the one to watch. The first system will likely be a good rainmaker.

[Ntxw]

And you know you're onto something when a bunch of European Ensembles lock onto an idea vs the typical spaghetti mix going a million ways beyond 3-5 days. Getting closer in resolution we will probably see some kind of massive HP ridge/Dome over NW Canada poking it's way into the Arctic circle come early next week

[Ntxw]

For those in South Texas, check out what is showing up in the 8-14 day analogs....January 1985!!!

Curious the 500mb look of 1985 given the La Nina then. But then again the 1980s was like a large -EPO party all around.

[Rgv20]

Happy New Year!!!


Good point guys the models are starting to show a nice 500mb pattern setting up in the longer range if you like cold weather!

12zGFS Ensemble Mean forecast some blocking in Alaska in 9 to 10 days.



To comment on NTXW looking at the 0zECMWF Ensemble Means if I'm reading the map correctly it looks like there is a high confidence in the Ridge setting up west of California and also on the negative 500mb height anomalies. Very close to the 500mb anomalies of January 1985!

[Tireman4]

Yes. Yes I do love cold weather. My bike ride, although I am tired, was good. My run at 5 pm is.next...go go.go.

[Brent]

Bring it on. December is over and so is heat misers control of the temperature

[wxman57]

Too cold and miserable to even go outside, much less ride my bike. Long-range ECMWF does indicate quite a bit of above-normal temps in western & northern Canada, which should prevent any extreme cold moving south to TX. Unfortunately, the East U.S. trof doesn't spell warmth for TX. Weather that's too cold for bike riding but too warm for snow will continue for a while.

My total rainfall for 2015 was 79.93". That's the most I've ever recorded, by far, in the last 30+ years.

Oh, and I officially won the office 2015 forecast contest by quite a margin. Though I don't need any more warm days, I'd sure like to see some...