Texas Winter 2015-2016

[dhweather]

new year, same stuff, two weeks out........

[Ntxw]

I suspect the sub tropical jet with its embedded disturbances will not be an issues near the day 10-15 range. The MJO via all the reliable guidance should be entering a favorable Phase 8 during that time and even with the lag time of a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave moving East of the dateline, we likely will see an Eastern Pacific tropical connection. The Teleconnection Indices all favor the mid January timeframe for cold weather along and East of the Continental Divide. We really do not need a truly dry Arctic airmass to drop temperatures into the teens. The advertised pattern favors Gulf Coastal low/trough development, so I believe those looking for some wintry mischief potential may not have to wait too much longer. There is certainly not much of any moderation expected during the first couple of weeks in January. The warmth of December is long gone until Spring.

Yep the 500mb pattern has flipped 180. The next 3 months will be cold in our part of the world. This may stretch through March.

This should be to no surprise, every major outlet has called for it as well as analogs. Doesn't get much easier

[orangeblood]

new year, same stuff, two weeks out........

Anything else you can contribute to this board, besides negativity, would be much appreciated. Thanks

[ThunderSleetDreams]

new year, same stuff, two weeks out........

Except we have a much different pattern .... So yeah, not the same stuff

[hriverajr]

18z GFS nothing special, most cold directed east vs 12Z European which has more potential for cold delivery into Texas. European Parallel further east... Canadian has much broader cold.

It is possible that cold air could be shunted east. Plenty of time to see though.

[WeatherGuesser]

The temperature outlook depicts below normal temperatures favored for an area stretching from the central and southern High Plains eastward across the central and lower Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Southeast and mid-Atlantic. The highest probabilities are indicated across the Southeast where lagged impacts of the MJO, negative AO and dynamical model guidance are in the best agreement. Above normal temperatures are more likely along the West coast of the CONUS at modest probabilities and this area extends northward to include Alaska. Areas within this highlighted region are based, to varying degrees, on local SSTs, El Nino and MJO impacts and statistical and dynamical model guidance. Background El Nino conditions may temper cold temperatures across parts of the northern CONUS so EC or equal chances is forecast in this region.

For precipitation, there are elevated odds for above-median precipitation for much of the West coast, especially north-central California eastward across the Southwest to parts of the southern High Plains and along the Gulf coast, Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic. The highest probabilities extend across the bottom half of the Florida Peninsula. Below median precipitation is highlighted from the northern Rockies eastward across the northern Plains and portions of the Great Lakes southward to include parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The highlighted areas are primarily based on statistical forecast guidance that incorporates information on ENSO, MJO and trends with adjustments made to some areas (primarily the central west coast) by dynamical model guidance. In the aforementioned region, the model guidance was consistent in indicating above median precipitation during the outlook period.

Anybody care to translate that to English?

[hriverajr]

If the cold air is shunted to the east, then our next shot of any real winter precipitation will also probably be moved a couple of weeks away. The pattern we were in if moved a 100 or so miles further east would have been perfect for frozen fun as the winter progressed. Just my two cents. Let's hope it does not go east.

[hriverajr]

The temperature outlook depicts below normal temperatures favored for an area stretching from the central and southern High Plains eastward across the central and lower Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Southeast and mid-Atlantic. The highest probabilities are indicated across the Southeast where lagged impacts of the MJO, negative AO and dynamical model guidance are in the best agreement. Above normal temperatures are more likely along the West coast of the CONUS at modest probabilities and this area extends northward to include Alaska. Areas within this highlighted region are based, to varying degrees, on local SSTs, El Nino and MJO impacts and statistical and dynamical model guidance. Background El Nino conditions may temper cold temperatures across parts of the northern CONUS so EC or equal chances is forecast in this region.

For precipitation, there are elevated odds for above-median precipitation for much of the West coast, especially north-central California eastward across the Southwest to parts of the southern High Plains and along the Gulf coast, Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic. The highest probabilities extend across the bottom half of the Florida Peninsula. Below median precipitation is highlighted from the northern Rockies eastward across the northern Plains and portions of the Great Lakes southward to include parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The highlighted areas are primarily based on statistical forecast guidance that incorporates information on ENSO, MJO and trends with adjustments made to some areas (primarily the central west coast) by dynamical model guidance. In the aforementioned region, the model guidance was consistent in indicating above median precipitation during the outlook period.

Anybody care to translate that to English?

Cold from the plains east, probably centered in the southeast. Warm along the West Coast up to Alaska. Highest probability of precipitation in the southern tier of the United States.

[wxman57]

Yep, cold air shunted east. 18Z GFS is not as cold as 12Z. Winter is just about over for TX. Time to start thinking about spring/summer heat!

[Portastorm]

Yep, cold air shunted east. 18Z GFS is not as cold as 12Z. Winter is just about over for TX. Time to start thinking about spring/summer heat!

Not so fast buster ... you promised us a nice winter once you won your December contest. Time for you to pay up!

[perk]

Yep, cold air shunted east. 18Z GFS is not as cold as 12Z. Winter is just about over for TX. Time to start thinking about spring/summer heat!

What happened to the 5 day rule.Don't buy into a model beyond 5 days.wxman57 stop cherry picking.

[Brent]

Yep, cold air shunted east. 18Z GFS is not as cold as 12Z. Winter is just about over for TX. Time to start thinking about spring/summer heat!

Because the 18z gfs is so believable

[perk]

Yep, cold air shunted east. 18Z GFS is not as cold as 12Z. Winter is just about over for TX. Time to start thinking about spring/summer heat!

Not so fast buster ... you promised us a nice winter once you won your December contest. Time for you to pay up!

And you believed a guy that owns a evil heat machine and hates cold weather.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The GFS has been so weak on its skill level, I've stopped paying attention to it.

[hriverajr]

LOL.. cold air shunted east is one of around three possibilities.... Usually what the model shows that far out does not come into fruition, like my snow here for today (DRT) if it had been 7-8 degrees colder... would have been something.. More moisture than had been indicated.

[Portastorm]

Yep, cold air shunted east. 18Z GFS is not as cold as 12Z. Winter is just about over for TX. Time to start thinking about spring/summer heat!

Not so fast buster ... you promised us a nice winter once you won your December contest. Time for you to pay up!

And you believed a guy that owns a evil heat machine and hates cold weather.

perk, you know it! I mistakenly thought I could trust him. Too gullible.

A lot of much smarter weather minds than mine agree that mid month promises some real weather drama for much of the nation. While the initial blasts may be to our northeast, I have a feeling the pattern will retrograde at some point maybe later in January. From then into February I think we could be in business for multiple winter storms. That opinion and $2 will get you a tall fresh brewed coffee at Starbucks.

[Tireman4]

Yeah....when the models forcast heat 5-10 days out...nails...but it foecasts cold...ehh...you cannot trst the models...just for that..Monday ...I am going to.give him a heater...ha ha...

[KatDaddy]

Models 3 days out possible. 5 days out you enter the unknown. Wisdom from an old weather geek.

[WeatherGuesser]

The temperature outlook depicts below normal temperatures favored for an area stretching from the central and southern High Plains eastward across the central and lower Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Southeast and mid-Atlantic. The highest probabilities are indicated across the Southeast where lagged impacts of the MJO, negative AO and dynamical model guidance are in the best agreement. Above normal temperatures are more likely along the West coast of the CONUS at modest probabilities and this area extends northward to include Alaska. Areas within this highlighted region are based, to varying degrees, on local SSTs, El Nino and MJO impacts and statistical and dynamical model guidance. Background El Nino conditions may temper cold temperatures across parts of the northern CONUS so EC or equal chances is forecast in this region.

For precipitation, there are elevated odds for above-median precipitation for much of the West coast, especially north-central California eastward across the Southwest to parts of the southern High Plains and along the Gulf coast, Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic. The highest probabilities extend across the bottom half of the Florida Peninsula. Below median precipitation is highlighted from the northern Rockies eastward across the northern Plains and portions of the Great Lakes southward to include parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The highlighted areas are primarily based on statistical forecast guidance that incorporates information on ENSO, MJO and trends with adjustments made to some areas (primarily the central west coast) by dynamical model guidance. In the aforementioned region, the model guidance was consistent in indicating above median precipitation during the outlook period.

Anybody care to translate that to English?

Cold from the plains east, probably centered in the southeast. Warm along the West Coast up to Alaska. Highest probability of precipitation in the southern tier of the United States.

As long as it means no extreme cold, no storms, no snow, no ice .... I'm good.

[Ntxw]

There's two solutions. Our beloved wxman57 can pick either one. We intend to collect

Ryan Maue tweet

GFS and you get a very cold Midwest cut trof cold or you can go the route of the Euro with the massive HP dome bleeding. Take the middle either way miserable weather for him



GFS often is famous for being too progressive, and Euro holds back too much. Ridge placement is good, arctic air movement is good. You really can't lose with either. i will bet you the farm there's a sneaky storm at the base of the trofs. May sneak in a couple of freezes next couple of nights.