Caribbean - Central America Weather

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST FRI JAN 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MOVE FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE LOCAL
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAKEN THE PREVAILING TRADE WINDS.
MOISTURE INCREASES BY MID NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT ERODES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. A FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS BRUSHED THE USVI AND
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF PR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
WAS MINIMAL. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TRADE WINDS DECREASE
SOMEWHAT OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN
FREQUENT OVER THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE USVI/EASTERN HALF OF PR...WITH
LIMITED IF ANY...AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER MAINLAND PR.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST AS THE RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL ERODE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS NORTH OF THE REGION AS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER PASSING SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...NEARSHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS BETWEEN 3-5 FEET AND
EAST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUE IN EFFECT THRU EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS SEAS UP TO 7
FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL
CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...2015 ENDED AS THE 6TH WETTEST AND 4TH WARMEST YEAR ON
RECORD AT CYRIL E. KING AP WITH A RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF
50.25 INCHES AND AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 81.9F. ALSO...2015 ENDED
AS THE YEAR WITH THE 2ND HIGHEST NUMBER OF 80 DEGREE NIGHTS.

2015 ENDED AS THE 3RD DRIEST AND 3RD WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD AT HENRY
E ROHLSEN AP WITH A RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 23.07 INCHES AND
AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 81.6F. ALSO...2015 ENDED AS THE YEAR WITH
THE 7TH HIGHEST NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS.

ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA...2015 ENDED AS THE 8TH DRIEST AND
5TH WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD WITH A RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF
41.30 INCHES AND AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 81.9F. ALSO...2015 ENDED
AS THE YEAR WITH THE 9TH HIGHEST NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS...AND THE
YEAR WITH THE 7TH HIGHEST NUMBER OF 80 DEGREE NIGHTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 87 74 86 / 30 30 20 20
STT 74 84 75 84 / 30 30 20 20

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 AM AST SAT JAN 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY MID NEXT WEEK AS THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKENS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE LOCAL SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAKEN THE PREVAILING TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS
MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS WITH FEW
OF THEM AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. HOWEVER...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WAS GENERALLY MINIMAL. A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. HOWEVER...AS THE
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...WEAKENING THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WEAKENS...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK AS THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE ERODE. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...NOT WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER ISOLD PASSING SHRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA AND WINDWARD AREAS OF PR AND THE USVI FROM TIME TO
TIME. SCT-BKN CLD LYRS FL020...060...FEW TCU....ISOLD TOPS NR FL100.
MTN TOPS OBSCR PSBL TIL 02/12Z DUE TO PASSING SHRA/LOW SCUD CLDS...
PSBL BR OVR ERN INTERIOR OF PR. WND FM E 15-25 KTS BLO FL250. LGT
SFC WND MAINLY FM E-SE 5-10 KTS...THEN INCR 10-15 KTS OCNL HIGHER
GUSTS AT TAF SITES AND WITH LCL SEA BREEZES AFT IN 02/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A DOWNWARD TREND IN
WAVE HEIGHTS AND ALSO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. HOWEVER
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 86 74 / 30 20 20 20
STT 85 74 83 74 / 30 20 20 20

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST SUN JAN 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKENS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS. HOWEVER...NOT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY...PUSHING
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WEAKENING THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID WEEK...ERODING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE...
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...NOT WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SHRA IN ESE TRADES WILL RESULT IN
BRIEF PERIODS OF ISOLATED PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE USVI/LEEWARD
TERMINALS AND EASTERN PR TERMINALS THRU THE FCST PERIOD...
RESULTING MAINLY IN VCSH AND POSSIBLE -RA. SFC WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE ESE AT 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE....WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
3-5 FEET OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATER
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 87 73 / 20 20 20 30
STT 85 74 84 74 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Here is the climate report of 2015 for Puerto Rico/U.S Virgin Islands.It was a mainly dry and hot year.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/sju/clim ... ummary.pdf

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SUN JAN 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
FLATTEN THROUGH MONDAY AS A TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK. CAP INVERSION OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...LIMITING THE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS. THEN...A FEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
CROSS THE LOCAL REGION BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ENHANCING
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY. SUBEQUATORIAL
RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THE NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING AS DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS
MOVED OVER THE AREA. TJSJ SOUNDING AS WELL AS GPS MET DATA INDICATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ONE INCH...ALMOST TWO STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...A BAND OF MOISTURE IS
APPROACHING THE USVI FOR THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
FORM ACROSS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS BAND OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA.

MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FEW WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS SWING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED AS A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA INDUCING A WET SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED OVER USVI AND PR...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH ESPECIALLY BY MIDWEEK.
STABLE PATTERN RETURNS AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS SUBEQUATORIAL
RIDGE BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER ISOLD PASSING SHRA WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE USVI/LEEWARD TERMINALS AND JSJ LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGED BETWEEN 10-15 KT
AND 3-5 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS...EXCEPT THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE WHERE SEAS UP TO 6 FT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
SEA STATE WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...A MODERATE
NORTHERLY SWELL OF 4-6 FT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL REGION ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 87 73 86 / 20 20 30 30
STT 74 84 74 83 / 30 30 30 30

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST MON JAN 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY BEFORE A BROAD RIDGE BUILDS OVER CARIBBEAN FROM SOUTH
AMERICA OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MID LEVELS HAVE MODEST PATCHY MOISTURE DURING THE WEEK...THEN DRY
OUT OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
DRIVING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS...A LOW WILL FORM OVER THE BAHAMAS MID WEEK AND MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CAUSING THE GRADIENTS TO WEAKEN AND TRADE
WINDS TO SLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL RECOVER SOME BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. PATCHY MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH THE PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSSIBLE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS DAMPENED MOST OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
PARTS OF SAINT CROIX AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS BRING QUICK PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. EASTERN PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE BEST
ACTIVITY WITH ONLY SLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. BUT
EVEN ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO NO MORE THAN ONE QUARTER
INCH IS EXPECTED ON ANY GIVEN DAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH...BUT THE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY SHOWER PATTERN WILL CHANGE
ONLY A LITTLE...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL DECREASE CONSIDERABLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN LOW
PRESSURE GREATLY REDUCES THE NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA. AT THAT TIME MANY AREAS WILL FIND LAND AND SEA BREEZES
PREDOMINATE. WINDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPOSED TO INCREASE WHEN AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES...BUT NOT ALL MODELS AGREE. EXPECT THAT
WESTERN PUERTO RICO WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS FORMING IN THE CONVERGENT WINDS NEAR
THE WESTERN SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION...OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF PR AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS OF THE USVI TODAY.
THIS COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE -RA AT TIMES ACROSS TISX/TIST/TJSJ
/TJPS AND MTN TOP OBSCD OVER EASTERN PR. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED. AFTER 04/18Z...MTN TOP OBSC IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR WITH BRIEF SHRA IN/NEAR TJMZ/TJBQ. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...INCREASING FM THE E-ESE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER
04/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE AND GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS DIMINISH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN...ALTHOUGH
A NORTHWEST THEN NORTH SWELL OF UP TO 5 FEET IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
AT THE OUTER BUOY ON THURSDAY AND IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE 7 TO 8 FOOT SEAS OCCURRING AT THE OUTER BUOY
WILL BE LESS THAN 7 FEET IN THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL ALSO
COINCIDE WITH A DECREASE IN WINDS AND WIND WAVES TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. SOME SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF MORE THAN 20
KNOTS IN THE LOCAL WATERS THIS WEEK. BUT ALL WINDS DIMINISH BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 86 74 / 40 20 40 50
STT 84 74 83 74 / 50 30 30 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST MON JAN 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AS A TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON TUESDAY. A FEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE LOCAL REGION
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ENHANCING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN
OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THE NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN TO THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH THE
DAY. GPS MET DATA INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPED FROM 1.6
INCHES THIS MORNING TO 1.2 INCHES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS
THAT THE MOISTURE IS AT THE 25 PERCENTILE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE CONTENT IS RELATIVELY LOW...SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHWEST PR WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURE
TODAY AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT REACHED 87 DEGREES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...4 DEGREES HIGH THAN NORMAL FOR JANUARY AND ONE
DEGREE BELOW THE RECORD FOR TODAY.

MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FEW SHORT-WAVE
TROUGHS SWING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER
TO THE ISLANDS OF THE AREA INDUCING A WET SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED OVER USVI
AND PR...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INCREASES SOMEWHAT AS MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY REMAINS GENERALLY HIGH ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. STABLE PATTERN RETURNS AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND
AS SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PDS OF VCSH/-RA EXPECTED. MTN
TOP OBSC IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR WITH BRIEF
SHRA IN/NEAR TJMZ/TJBQ THRU 04/21Z. WINDS FM THE E-ESE AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE AND GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGED BETWEEN 10-15 KT
AND 3-5 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS...EXCEPT THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE WHERE SEAS UP TO 6 FT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
SEA STATE WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...A MODERATE
NORTHERLY SWELL OF 4-6 FT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL REGION ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 86 74 86 / 20 40 50 30
STT 74 83 74 84 / 30 30 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST TUE JAN 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH TODAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN FROM SOUTH AMERICA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN
TO FADE LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL WEAKEN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A WEAK LOW OVER CUBA TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
WILL BE AROUND 900 NM NORTH NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN ON
FRIDAY...CAUSING GRADIENTS AND WINDS TO DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER TO CURRENT SPEEDS BY THE FOLLOWING
THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLACKEN OFF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW IS BEING CARRIED INTO THE
LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS CAUSING SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES WERE MEASURED BY RADAR IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PART OF OUR LOCAL WATERS...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS DECREASED AS ONE MOVED
NORTH AND LITTLE OR NO RAIN HAD FALLEN OVERNIGHT IN PUERTO RICO
OR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS OF 5 AM. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWED A
DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MOISTURE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST TOWARD SAINT
CROIX AND IT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THERE THIS MORNING AND IN
PUERTO RICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE 05/00Z RUN OF THE GFS DID
NOT SHOW THE BOUNDARY OR THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO AIR
MASSES AS DID THE MIMIC...ALTHOUGH THE NMM RUNS DID SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE 05/06Z GFS
RUN IS SHOWING MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS
DURING THE DAY TO SHOW BETTER SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND HENCE EXPECT OUR TYPICAL
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING DURING THIS TIME...SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE BETTER
AMOUNTS THAN THE QUICK PASSING SHOWER WERE PREVIOUSLY ABLE TO
DELIVER. NEVERTHELESS THE AIR MASS IS SHALLOW AND WOULD NOT EXPECT
FLOODING EXCEPT WHERE NORMAL DRAINAGE IS BLOCKED. HIGHER PRESSURE
AT UPPER LEVELS BUILDING IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND DRIER AIR
LOWERING TO AS LOW AS 800 MB AND DEEPENING TO 300 MB WILL LOWER
FREQUENCY...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SHRA INCREASING ACROSS THE LEEWARD...AND WINDWARD SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN
SPREADING OVER NORTH/WESTERN PR AFTER 18Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND
MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS OVER MAINLAND PR IS LIKELY W/SHRA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASING FM THE ESE AROUND
10 KNOTS AFTER 13Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND GUSTY IN/NEAR
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT SEAS PICK UP CONSIDERABLY ON THURSDAY...WITH UP TO
8 FOOT SEAS AT THE OUTER BUOY 41043 DUE TO A NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL
AND WIND WAVES FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST. 6
TO 7 FEET SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LOCAL OUTER ATLANTIC
WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM MUCH THE SAME SOURCES. SEAS IN
THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET FOR THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS
AS LOCAL WIND GENERATION WILL BE LIMITED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 86 75 / 50 70 40 40
STT 79 75 79 74 / 30 70 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST TUE JAN 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE LOCAL REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY ENHANCING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN OVER
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN DURING WEEKEND BRINGING FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
TO THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEPER MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. GPS MET DATA SHOWED MOISTURE SURGE FROM 1.08 TO
1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING SINCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR...
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...
SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE USVI AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
AND EAST PR AT TIMES.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS MID-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED OVER
USVI AND PR...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS REMAINS HIGH THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY AS RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE PREVAILS
OVER THE REGION. STABLE PATTERN RETURNS DURING THE WEEKEND AS
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE USVI AND
TNCM AND TKPK TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
PREVAILING FROM THE SE AT ABOUT 10 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
SCT-NMRS SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. PASSING SHRA WILL CAUSE VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS DECREASING.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGED BETWEEN 10-15 KT
AND 3-5 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS...EXCEPT THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE WHERE SEAS UP TO 6 FT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
SEA STATE WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL OF 4-6 FT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL
REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 86 75 86 / 50 40 40 20
STT 75 79 74 79 / 50 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
611 AM AST WED JAN 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION. A FEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE LOCAL REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY ENHANCING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN
OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN DURING WEEKEND BRINGING A FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN TO THE ISLANDS. A SURFACE LOW OVER CUBA WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC...WEAKENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDINESS SLOWLY DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER TRADE WIND
SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS FROM TIME TO TIME.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED POCKETS OF CLOUDINESS WITH TRADE WIND
SHOWERS APPROACHING THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THE MIMIC TPW
SHOWED A SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...OCCASIONAL BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS...THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR...AND WESTERN PR.

THIS PATTERN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING MOST OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN HIGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. STABLE PATTERN RETURNS DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 07/00Z EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT TNCM AND
TKPK TIL 07/18Z. VCSH ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST TAF SITES. MTNS IN
PR NOT ALREADY OBSCURED WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY 06/12Z WITH MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHEAST. WINDS BELOW FL180 WILL CONT FROM THE E TO ESE AT 10
KTS OR LESS BLO FL180... HOWEVER LAND/SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE WILL
PREVAIL AT THE SFC.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...THE LOCAL BUOY NETWORK IS INDICATING SEAS BETWEEN
1-4 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE USVI AND PUERTO RICO.
WINDS ARE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-14 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS...EXCEPT NEAR ST THOMAS WHERE WINDS UP
TO 18 KNOTS WERE REPORTED. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. A
LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
PASSAGES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 87 74 / 50 40 30 30
STT 83 74 84 75 / 30 30 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 PM AST WED JAN 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS... BROAD INDUCED
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL HELP
MAINTAIN A MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TO
DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARDS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL AID IN WEAKENING THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS WELL AS MAINTAIN A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID TO UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TROUGH
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL 50-60 KNOT JET SEGMENT EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
VENTILATION TO KEEP THE AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...EXPECT CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LAND TO DIMINISH...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS MAINLY BETWEEN PR AND
THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH PARTS
OF THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS BRINGING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY RAINFALL.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL
MAY BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY IN SOME ISOLATED SPOTS ...NO
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN SKIES EXPECTED WITH CIGS NEAR FL060 TO FL080
THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF MODERATE SHRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...CAUSING
LIKELY VCSH AND POSSIBLE TEMPO MVFR CONDS ACROSS TJSJ AND TJBQ UNTIL
06/21Z. IMPROVING CONDS THEREAFTER BUT VCSH STILL EXPECTED. ESE-SE
WINDS AT 10-15KT THROUGH 06/23Z...DECREASING TO ABOUT 5-10KT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...A LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND PASSAGES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THAT PERIOD.
IN THE MEANTIME SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS MANY OF THE LOCAL BEACHES.
NORTHERLY SWELL STILL EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
SEAS UP TO 8 FEET POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 87 74 87 / 40 30 30 50
STT 76 84 75 83 / 30 20 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
645 AM AST THU JAN 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY. A SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN LATE DURING THE WEEKEND. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A
BROAD INDUCED TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST UNTIL
FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...TO THE NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS...WILL CONTINUE TO TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC AND LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL AID IN WEAKENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AS WELL AS
MAINTAIN A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER TRADE WIND SHOWERS
MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PR/USVI FROM
TIME TO TIME. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUED TO SHOWED POCKETS OF
CLOUDINESS WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS APPROACHING THE REGION. THE
MIMIC TPW SHOWED LESS PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS...THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE INTERIOR...AND WESTERN PR.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN GOOD POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL MAY BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY IN
SOME ISOLATED SPOTS...NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST FLOW IS CARRYING SMALL SCT SHRA ACROSS LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND THRU FA. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT SE COAST OF PR WILL
HAVE MVFR CIGS TIL ARND 07/10Z AND TNCM...TKPK WILL HAVE BRIEF MVFR
CIGS THRU 08/02Z. AFT 07/16Z AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS
TO DVLP ACROSS PR INCL E-SE INTERIOR/COAST AND WRN INTERIOR
INCLUDING TJMZ AND BRIEFLY TJBQ. ESE FLOW 5 TO 15 KT FL010-FL090
BCMG SE AFT 07/12Z. WINDS BCM WLY ABV FL180 AFT 07/12Z. BEST WINDS
WEST ARND 50 KT AT FL370.


&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL STARTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE IN EFFECT AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THIS SWELL WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS
AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG MOST OF THE NORTH FACING
BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MARINERS CAN
EXPECT ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 73 86 75 / 30 30 50 50
STT 84 75 83 74 / 30 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
340 PM AST THU JAN 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE RIDGE ALOFT ERODES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. IN THE MEANTIME...A SURFACE LOW WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE LOCAL
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
MAINTAINING AN AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE ISLANDS
UNDER A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS LEAD TO SOME CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH...CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS A FEW OF THE OTHER ISLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BY EARLY EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER EXPECT UNDER THE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTAL AREAS
BY EARLY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AS
WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS MAY AGAIN
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IS STILL NOT FORECAST OR EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

BY LATE SATURDAY AND REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS FORECAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ALOFT...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD AND
REESTABLISH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
BRING A COOLER AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN...AS THE TRADE WINDS
WILL SHIFT AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE TO THEN
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THAT TIME EXPECT
ONLY OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWERS BROUGHT IN BY THE PREVAILING
NORTHERLIES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST FLOW IS CARRYING SMALL SCT SHRA ACROSS LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND THRU FA. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT SE COAST OF PR WILL
HAVE MVFR CIGS TIL ARND 07/10Z AND TNCM...TKPK WILL HAVE BRIEF MVFR
CIGS THRU 08/02Z. AFT 07/16Z AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS
TO DVLP ACROSS PR INCL E-SE INTERIOR/COAST AND WRN INTERIOR
INCLUDING TJMZ AND BRIEFLY TJBQ. ESE FLOW 5 TO 15 KT FL010-FL090
BCMG SE AFT 07/12Z. WINDS BCM WESTERLY ABV FL180 AFT 07/12Z. BEST
WINDS WEST ARND 50 KT AT FL370.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO DETERIORATE AS A NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND LOCAL PASSAGES DURING THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGE

HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AS
WELL AS THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ACROSS MANY OF THESE NORTH FACING BEACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 74 85 / 30 50 20 20
STT 75 83 74 83 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST FRI JAN 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A BROAD RIDGE FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL THEN TILT INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. PATCHES OF MOISTURE
IN THE MID LEVELS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH DRIER AIR SUNDAY THROUGH
THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE MONA
CHANNEL WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND SATURDAY AND THEN EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND IT
CAUSING GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEARING SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS EVEN THOUGH THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUED OVERNIGHT
CARRYING SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS THAT MOVED ONSHORE IN PUERTO
RICO...HOWEVER...GENERALLY DISSIPATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LEAVING THE REST OF THE ISLAND DRY. SEVERAL OF THE STRONGER
SHOWERS PASSED OVER SAINT THOMAS AT THE AIRPORT IN CHARLOTTE
AMALIE LEAVING 23 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH BEFORE 2 AM AST. ONLY
TRACES WERE SEEN IN SAINT CROIX. MOISTURE WILL PEAK AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. A COL AT THE TAIL OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY
08/18Z. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RAINS THAT FORM TO FOCUS MORE OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL INTERIOR AND THE SOUTHWEST. AGAIN THE NAM5 MODEL
APPEARED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE OF THE AREA OF FORMATION. WINDS
ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SEA BREEZES WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN SHOWER
LOCATION. EVEN ON THE NORTHEAST COAST THIS SHOULD PLACE SHOWERS
SOMEWHAT INLAND. ON SATURDAY WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS WE
COME UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE COL AND THE AREA OF
SHOWER FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO JUST INLAND FROM THE
SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. BUT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
STILL EXPECTED OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

WITH A DRYING TREND SHOWERS CHANCES WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL YIELD LESS
RAINFALL AND SKIES WILL BECOME A LITTLE SUNNIER. WINDS SHIFT AWAY
FROM THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN SPOTTY OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE USVI AND THE WINDWARD COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VCSH LIKELY OVER THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AS TRADE WIND SHRAS
MOVE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THIS MORNING. THEN...VCSH WITH SCT-BKN
CIGS EXPECTED NEAR TJMZ AND TJPS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL BETWEEN 08/17Z-23Z. WINDS FROM SE
THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SPEED AROUND
10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...7 FOOT SWELL ARE STILL APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS THEY WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TOMORROW
BUT MANY AREAS WILL STILL EXPERIENCE 5 TO 6 FOOT SWELL IN THE
ATLANTIC AND PASSAGES THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER LARGE SWELL WILL MOVE IN FROM NORTH NORTHEAST
LATE MONDAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE NOW ESTABLISHED IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK IN THE ATLANTIC AND PASSAGES. SEAS IN THE
CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY TRANQUIL.

WE CONTINUE TO CARRY A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON WHEN 8 TO 10 FOOT BREAKING
WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 73 86 74 / 20 20 20 40
STT 84 74 84 74 / 20 40 20 40

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST FRI JAN 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE MONA CHANNEL
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND SATURDAY AND THEN EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX...CAUSING
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED IN THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. HOWEVER THERE WAS
THE COMBINATION OF THE LOCAL HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO
CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. THERE WAS ALSO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO MUNICIPALITIES. THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN CONSTANT THROUGH
SATURDAY...CAUSING SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. THEN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD OBSERVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PR IN THE
AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON TODAY. THE USVI SHOULD
REMAIN WITH FAIR WEATHER AND ONLY BRIEF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

MOISTURE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SUNDAY AND THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DIPPING TO 1.2 INCHES OR
SO WHILE THE WINDS ALSO SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MID WEEK AS THIS MOISTURE DECREASES AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND AFFECTS
THE LOCAL AREA. ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BUT MOST
LIKELY WILL LEAVE RELATIVELY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR AT ALL TAF SITES DURG PRD. FEW SHRA OVR
CTRL MTN RANGE OF PR AND VCTY USVI TIL 08/22Z. FEW TCU TOPS 200...
SCT-BKN CLD LYRS FL022...FL050...OVR ISLANDS. WND LGT/VRB BLO
FL150 BCMG FM NW AND INCR W/HT ABV...MAX WND 60-65 KTS NR FL300.
SFC WND AT TERMINAL AIRDROME BCMG CALM TO LGT/VRB AFT 09/00Z.


&&

.MARINE...HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. LOCAL BUOYS
INDICATE THAT THE SEAS ARE DIMINISHING AS WAS EXPECTED. THERE IS
STILL A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOCAL BEACHES AND THERE
IS ALSO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT CONTINUES UNTIL 8 PM AST FOR
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 86 74 85 / 20 20 40 40
STT 74 84 74 84 / 40 20 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST SAT JAN 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND
AREAS. LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN NEAR TJMZ AND TJPS AS WELL AS
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL BETWEEN 17Z-22Z.
SFC WINDS FROM ENE AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. A MODERATE
TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO.

AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE
BERMUDA ISLAND MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THE
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE DURING THE EARLY
PARTS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 20 30 30 50
STT 84 75 85 74 / 20 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
512 AM AST SUN JAN 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE MONA PASSAGE THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE DISSIPATES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEAK LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEAR LINE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE DISSIPATES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW...THE LINGERING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND OTHER LOCAL EFFECTS
TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NOT WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS HAPPENS...AN AREA OF
DRIER AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN
THE WEEK DECREASING THE PWAT VALUES TO WELL BELOW 1.50 INCHES
UNTIL LATE IN THE LABOR WEEK. THE DRIER AIR AND THE PREVAILING
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOWER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. VCSH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJBQ UNTIL AT LEAST 11/12Z.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10K FEET...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND
STRONGER...UP TO 45 KNOTS...ABOVE 10K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLOWLY TODAY...WITH SEAS
UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED AND WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 84 73 / 30 50 50 20
STT 84 74 84 74 / 20 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST SUN JAN 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE LOCAL REGION
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN AS THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
WEAK LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER.

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LA CORDILLERA CENTRAL.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AT AROUND SUNSET. TONIGHT
EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS HAPPENS...AN AREA OF DRIER AIR WILL
ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK
DECREASING THE PWAT VALUES TO WELL BELOW 1.50 INCHES UNTIL LATE IN
THE WEEK. THE DRIER AIR AND THE PREVAILING NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE TEMPO MVFR AT
TJMZ AND TIST UNDER PERSISTENT MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL 10/21Z. VCSH
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINING LOCAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT ABOUT 10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHTER AT AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A LARGE ANG LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST SWELLS
REACHING THE 8.5 FEET WITH PERIODS OF BETWEEN 13 TO 14 SECONDS.
THEREFORE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN USVI.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 73 85 / 50 50 20 20
STT 74 84 74 83 / 40 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST MON JAN 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT TO HOLD IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS TO THEN SLIGHTLY
ERODE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A POLAR TROUGH WILL MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE TRADE WIND ARE TO THEN BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY
EARLY FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACCOMPANYING AREA
OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS DRIFTING SOUTHWARDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR...MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE HAS HOWEVER CONTINUED TO DIMINISH
AS THIS FEATURE DRIFTED SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS...AND DRIER
AND STABLE AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. SOME SHOWERS WERE ALSO
NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

DURING THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SKIES ARE TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER LAND...WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. BY EARLY MORNING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
REACH PARTS OF THE COASTAL AREAS...BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE OF
SHORT DURATION. FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS AND
COASTAL WATERS AS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PREVAIL. STILL HOWEVER EXPECT SOME EARLY MORNING PASSING
SHOWERS TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS OF SOME THE ISLANDS
AND COASTAL WATERS EACH DAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER SKIES ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH 12/18Z. ISOLD SHWRS COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS...EXCEPT FOR
VCSH AT TJBQ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY FROM NE BELOW
15KTS...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF SEA BREEZE AT TJPS AND TJMZ DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...RECENT BUOY DATA FROM 41043 NE OF PUERTO RIO SUGGEST
SEAS OF 11 FEET AT 16 SECS...AS NE SWELLS CONTINUED TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND SPREAD THROUGH THE LOCAL PASSAGES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC WATERS AND
LOCAL PASSAGES...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS CULEBRA...
VIEQUES...THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS AND CRAMER PARK IN SAINT
CROIX.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ...MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGES FOR ADDITIONAL AND UPDATED
INFORMATIONS ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 84 / 20 20 10 20
STT 73 85 73 83 / 20 20 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
717 AM AST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA REMAINS OVER OR NEAR PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND DRIFTS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AFTER THAT.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS REMAIN PARCHED
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN
HUMIDITIES APPROACH 30 PERCENT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BE
REPLACED BY A SLIGHTLY STRONGER HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
AND CAUSE IT TO SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER SOME HEAVY RAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO...SHOWERS MOVED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NIGHT AND HAVE NOW LEFT THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING ONLY SMALL LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS. OVER THE AREA. THE
GFS SHOWS AREAS OF MOISTURE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE FIRST SURGE APPEARS TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING LAND TODAY...BUT THE SECOND IS SHOWN TO
BE MOVING ONSHORE WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF RAINFALL LATER
TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIR RESIDES ABOVE THIS MOISTURE AT HEIGHTS NO
GREATER THAN 5 TO 7 THOUSAND FEET. A WEAK LAYER OF MOISTURE AT
AROUND 9 TO 10 KFT SHOWING UP AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN ALTOCUMULUS
SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED. BEGINNING TONIGHT THE INFLUENCE OF
WESTERLY WINDS THAT EXTEND FROM ABOVE 50 KFT DOWN TO AROUND 15
KFT...WILL SLOWLY PENETRATE DOWNWARD UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN
WESTERLIES ARE AS LOW AS 10 KFT. ALSO...IN A SITUATION THAT HAS
BEEN ATYPICAL UP TO NOW...BUT RELATED TO THE WINDS JUST
MENTIONED...PARCELS ARE NOW CAPPED AND NO LONGER HAVE SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY TO PENETRATE BEYOND ABOUT 10 KFT. SO LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH 12/18Z. ISOLD SHWRS COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...EXPECT VCSH AT TJBQ. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...BCMG MOSTLY FROM NE AFT 12/14Z...BELOW 15 KTS
...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF SEA BREEZE AT TJPS AND TJMZ DURING AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS...THE
WAVE WATCH MODEL HAS DONE A HORRIFIC JOB WITH WAVE HEIGHTS...AS
SWELL FROM PASSING LOW PRESSURES NORTH OF US ROLL IN. FOR SEVERAL
HOURS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SEAS HAVE BEEN AS MUCH AS
150 PERCENT...5 FEET...HIGHER AT THE BUOYS THAN FORECAST. USERS
SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO SERIOUS SAFETY ISSUES IF
TAKEN AT FACE VALUE. FORTUNATELY SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE...BUT THEY WILL COME DOWN SLOWLY AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AT
LEAST 7 FEET IN SOME AREAS OF THE ATLANTIC AND PASSAGES THROUGH
FRIDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS AND SURF FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND THE SURF ZONE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 74 / 10 10 20 10
STT 84 73 83 72 / 20 10 20 10