Texas Winter 2015-2016

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

"LONGER RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW AN ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAK FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AFTER JANUARY 12TH. THE CENTER OF
THE COLD AIR SEEMS HEADED TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BUT WE
COULD STILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE AIR MASS AND HAVE MUCH COLDER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES."

EWX seems to be looking at the 6z GFS....

Our friend Portastorm can confirm, NWS EWX can be like Jekyll and Hyde in regard to model hugging. One AFD they are calling for any outdoor work get done this week and the next one we might as well get out the shorts and cut off sleeves.

[wxman57]

Whoa! Models are indicating a light freeze for Houston next week. I better make sure I have at least a 3-day supply of food/water just in case my wife and mother are trapped at the house while I'm enjoying the non-freezing weather at the AMS meeting in New Orleans.

12Z ECMWF indicates little in the way of snowfall over the next 10 days. Some light snow Sun-Mon across the Panhandle east to about Abilene. 2-meter temps down to the mid 20s for Dallas-Ft. Worth by next Wednesday. Nothing too exciting.

Long-range GFS (which can always be fully-trusted) is indicating a switch (briefly?) to cross-Polar flow after the 15th. But the flow pattern across the U.S. is not one that would typically drive the coldest air southward to Texas.

[Stormnut]

I'm in NYC- it's 22 right now.
Been here for a week for New Years... Not a single snowflake for this South Louisiana boy

[Ntxw]

Little news from the Nino. ONI (official records) for OND came in at 2.3C. 2015's is the strongest Nino event on record by this accord. It may rise a little more as adjustments are made or if NDJ comes in a little stronger.

[wxman57]

Little news from the Nino. ONI (official records) for OND came in at 2.3C. 2015's is the strongest Nino event on record by this accord. It may rise a little more as adjustments are made or if NDJ comes in a little stronger.

Looks like it tied or is slightly less warm than the 1997 El Nino on the link below. Both hit +2.3C for a 3-month average, though 1997's was warmer in the months leading up to the Oct-Dec period.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

[Ntxw]

Little news from the Nino. ONI (official records) for OND came in at 2.3C. 2015's is the strongest Nino event on record by this accord. It may rise a little more as adjustments are made or if NDJ comes in a little stronger.

Looks like it tied or is slightly less warm than the 1997 El Nino on the link below. Both hit +2.3C for a 3-month average, though 1997's was warmer in the months leading up to the Oct-Dec period.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

Each update has been to increase the previous trimonthly ONI values. SON was previously 1.7C and recently adjusted to 1.8C. Ersstv4 has been undervaluing it. Errstv3 is a jawdropping 2.5C compared to 2.4C in 1997

In totality the real sst's not anomalies are greater than 1997 as the climo has changed.

[Brent]

FWD still hinting at weekend mischief:

THERE
ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THAT IT WILL BE MAINLY A COLD RAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY THOUGH AS THE CANADIAN AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE GFS...DO SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AS THE
COLUMN COOLS SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EITHER
WAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK COLD.

The 18z GFS does have a brief period of light snow overnight Saturday Night/predawn Sunday:



and again next Monday evening:

[hriverajr]

GFS must be on drugs

[Brent]

GFS must be on drugs

Maybe... but I'm not writing off next week's potential.

[hriverajr]

GFS must be on drugs

Maybe... but I'm not writing off next week's potential.

I'm referring to the total flip flop on surface features between 12 and 18z

[Brent]

GFS must be on drugs

Maybe... but I'm not writing off next week's potential.

I'm referring to the total flip flop on surface features between 12 and 18z

LOL seriously

[Portastorm]

GFS must be on drugs

Maybe... but I'm not writing off next week's potential.

I'm referring to the total flip flop on surface features between 12 and 18z

The GFS is clearly struggling with the upcoming pattern change. Given the widespread changes we have seen in the 500mb flow in the last 4-5 runs alone is enough to tell you that it's having "issues." However that is usually a good signal that some kind of big change may be coming. I noticed the 0z and 12 runs for example at the 500mb level started to really diverge after about 180 hours. This is one of those periods where comparing ensembles is advisable instead of comparing operational runs.

[Ralph's Weather]

GFS must be on drugs

Maybe... but I'm not writing off next week's potential.

Me either, looks like a general longwave trough overhead with some SW flow mixed in to give some moisture boosts for any passing impulses. Don't expect more than an inch or two of snow from any one impulse though. Also have to remember that temps will likely be colder than modeled as is usually the case. It does not take near as much moisture for light snow to fall when temps are in the teens and twenties vs 30s just have to have some kind of disturbance in the atmosphere to kick it off.

[Brent]

Pete Delkus just mentioned the snow word a few times in the weather teaser...

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Oh GFS... Single digits in the HGX area during the last 100 hours of its run. 540 line off the coast...

[Portastorm]

I was kind of partial myself to this image from that run:

[EnnisTx]

Looking more likely that we get some Cold and a little fun stuff!

[EnnisTx]

:uarrow:

I was kind of partial myself to this image from that run:

I'm kinda fond of it too!!

[hriverajr]

:uarrow:

I was kind of partial myself to this image from that run:

Me too

[Tireman4]

Holy Moly Mother of Pearl...gee if it were only one week out...