Texas Winter 2015-2016

[TeamPlayersBlue]

GFS has 10 straight days of cross polar flow right into the Plains lol. Not sure if i should believe that.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS went all out on the teleconnections, severe -AO, very negative EPO, negative NAO, and negative WPO. Jesus Christ ...maybe those 1966, 1977, 1978 CPC analogs weren't crazy after all


Still though we are entering a period of blocking. Cold push is very real. Snow is all about timing.

[Brent]

I think I just died checking the 18z GFS meteogram...

a 1 degree and 0 degree low at DFW following that storm and it fails to reach 20 degrees for 3 days

[Ntxw]

Yeah it went all out direct flow from Siberia

[Brent]

Oh this got saved lol

[HockeyTx82]

:lol: Yeah it went all out direct flow from Siberia

You never go all out direct flow from Siberia.

Seriously how often do the models do this, this close in timing and be right?

[Ntxw]

You never go all out direct flow from Siberia.

Seriously how often do the models do this, this close in timing and be right?

It's la la land. And the GFS has been flip flopping so no reason to believe it's true moreso now. But the pattern conducive for cold outbreaks. We have a significant intrusion early next week well before that time frame to worry over.

[EnnisTx]

Wow!!!

[EnnisTx]

I think I just died checking the 18z GFS meteogram...

a 1 degree and 0 degree low at DFW following that storm and it fails to reach 20 degrees for 3 days

I seem to remember a 0 degree night in DFW when I was a teen back in the mid 90's

[gpsnowman]

I think I just died checking the 18z GFS meteogram...

a 1 degree and 0 degree low at DFW following that storm and it fails to reach 20 degrees for 3 days

I seem to remember a 0 degree night in DFW when I was a teen back in the mid 90's

The last 0 degree night in DFW that I can recall was during the cold outbreak in December 1989 when the temp got down to -1 on the 23rd if I remember correctly. What you might be thinking of is February of 1996 when it got down to 8 degrees, the last single digit reading at DFW since then. I am going off all memory here so please correct me if I am wrong anyone.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

89 was the last 0 degree reading

[EnnisTx]

I think I just died checking the 18z GFS meteogram...

a 1 degree and 0 degree low at DFW following that storm and it fails to reach 20 degrees for 3 days

I seem to remember a 0 degree night in DFW when I was a teen back in the mid 90's

The last 0 degree night in DFW that I can recall was during the cold outbreak in December 1989 when the temp got down to -1 on the 23rd if I remember correctly. What you might be thinking of is February of 1996 when it got down to 8 degrees, the last single digit reading at DFW since then. I am going off all memory here so please correct me if I am wrong anyone.

89 it was! I was 19 and camping out like an idiot!! It was so cold our breath left 2" ice crystals hanging from the roof of the tent. luckily I had an old mummy bag that my Grandfather gave me from his Military day's

[gpsnowman]

Man, we are overdue for a single digit reading. Don't think it is going to happen this year though. Too much El Nino and cloud cover. Maybe in a future La Nina.

[Snowman67]

I seem to remember a 0 degree night in DFW when I was a teen back in the mid 90's [/quote]
The last 0 degree night in DFW that I can recall was during the cold outbreak in December 1989 when the temp got down to -1 on the 23rd if I remember correctly. What you might be thinking of is February of 1996 when it got down to 8 degrees, the last single digit reading at DFW since then. I am going off all memory here so please correct me if I am wrong anyone.[/quote]


89 it was! I was 19 and camping out like an idiot!! It was so cold our breath left 2" ice crystals hanging from the roof of the tent. luckily I had an old mummy bag that my Grandfather gave me from his Military day's[/quote]

I was a student at Baylor at the time and it got down to -4F on the morning of 12/23/89. My ears were so cold I thought they were going to break off.

[EnnisTx]

I know this is not Winter Weather related, but check out the video I posted on the Facebook site of the Rowlett Tornado.

[gatorcane]

Yeah I'd say this is some seriously frigid weather for Texas if this were to verify.

Question is will the GFS keep showing this solution in future runs?

[orangeblood]

The GFS isn't the only model going to extremes....The 12Z Canadian Control Run is about as extreme of a 2 week stretch I can ever recall seeing on a model run. If the GFS and Canadian AO forecast verify combined with the positive anomalies in ENSO 3.4, we could be looking at a very memorable stretch of winter weather around here.

[Brent]

:uarrow: The GFS isn't the only model going to extremes....The 12Z Canadian Control Run is about as extreme of a 2 week stretch I can ever recall seeing on a model run. If the GFS and Canadian AO forecast verify combined with the positive anomalies in ENSO 3.4, we could be looking at a very memorable stretch of winter weather around here.

Hard to envision topping that stretch last year lol(or the stretch around the 2011 Super Bowl) but some of the stuff I'm seeing would make that look so pathetic...

Uncharted waters for most of the cold snaps of the last 20 years. Taking the GFS verbatim too there's a significant snowstorm to lead off the record cold...

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: The GFS isn't the only model going to extremes....The 12Z Canadian Control Run is about as extreme of a 2 week stretch I can ever recall seeing on a model run. If the GFS and Canadian AO forecast verify combined with the positive anomalies in ENSO 3.4, we could be looking at a very memorable stretch of winter weather around here.

Hard to envision topping that stretch last year lol(or the stretch around the 2011 Super Bowl) but some of the stuff I'm seeing would make that look so pathetic...

Uncharted waters for most of the cold snaps of the last 20 years. Taking the GFS verbatim too there's a significant snowstorm to lead off the record cold...

It's also been a long time since we've had real January cold, and snow. Januaries have been rather snowless of late. I mean it snows more in March here lately than it does January. Since the 1985 blast, DFW's January max snowfall is 1.2" for the whole month in 2002-2003.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yeah I'd say this is some seriously frigid weather for Texas if this were to verify.

Question is will the GFS keep showing this solution in future runs?

Not going to say its impossible for the gfs to actually get something right for once, winter weather wise for the south, but will believe it when I actually see it.