Texas Winter 2015-2016

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well of course with the atmosphere, alot of things are at work that i cant fully understand. For instance under the polar vortex which had extreme cold in 2014, the Bar pressure wasnt very high at all. One of the factors could be winds just above the surface sheering some of the core colder air east not allowing the HP's to gain density. All of this is speculation on my part but i wonder the same question. Alot of factors at work.

[Ntxw]

-AO usually more bleeding cold than the EPO blasts.

[srainhoutx]

Just some quick thoughts regarding the Teleconnection Indices and the MJO progression. I have noticed that the guidance tends to rush these transitioning Hemispheric patterns over the years. Give the 500/200mb pattern evolution some time. Perhaps as much as 7 to 10 days. That would put us in the mid to late January timeframe. That's when the upper air pattern may support a legitimate change. Until then, I see nothing more than modified Canadian air and an active Pacific flow with an occasional cold core upper low tracking across our Region.

[Ntxw]

Why are we only getting a 1025-1030 mb high out of the early week Arctic blast? I know the -EPO is not super strong, but I would have expected around 1030-1035 mb. Either way with cloud cover and some precip temps will not likely get much above freezing on Monday over northern Texas.

Exactly what i was saying earlier.

I think I have heard that El Nino may dampen the highs some but not sure how that works. It is not a massive -EPO, but around -1 or 2 I would expect it to give us some decent Arctic air especially coupled with a -3 AO. That strongly negative AO will continue to crash into -4 to maybe as low as -6 by late next week. NAO is also going negative next week and the PNA is falling to near neutral. All of these are good signs for cold and snow in Texas.

EL Nino favors +EPO because the Aleutian low is stronger than normal. Often it will flex its influence through Alaska with deep trofs

This is just broadbrushing it. If El Nino is central pacific oriented then the convection in the tropics can pull back the aleutian low and raise heights over Alaska thus modoki is often colder

[Ralph's Weather]

EL Nino favors +EPO because the Aleutian low is stronger than normal. Often it will flex its influence through Alaska with deep trofs

This is just broadbrushing it. If El Nino is central pacific oriented then the convection in the tropics can pull back the aleutian low and raise heights over Alaska thus modoki is often colder

Thanks for that, that makes sense.

[Ralph's Weather]

Just some quick thoughts regarding the Teleconnection Indices and the MJO progression. I have noticed that the guidance tends to rush these transitioning Hemispheric patterns over the years. Give the 500/200mb pattern evolution some time. Perhaps as much as 7 to 10 days. That would put us in the mid to late January timeframe. That's when the upper air pattern may support a legitimate change. Until then, I see nothing more than modified Canadian air and an active Pacific flow with an occasional cold core upper low tracking across our Region.

We are rushing things a bit as I recall a month ago we were looking at the 15th to 20th of Jan being the period to expect the big flip to occur.

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing any signs of a major flip in the pattern. We got a touch of cross-Polar flow presently, but that won't last very long. Not any really cold air moving south to Texas over the next couple of weeks. Cold enough for a little snow on Monday, though. Possibly some in the D-FW area, though the 12Z EC backed off on any snow that far east.

[Brent]

Just in from FWD:

THE MORE INTERESTING SCENARIO TAKES PLACE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SPECIFICALLY ON MONDAY AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE
TRAIN OF UPPER DISTURBANCES SWINGS THROUGH. COLD AIR WILL ALREADY
BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN BEHIND A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE
UPPER PATTERN IS NOT TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...AS THE PRIMARY PROBLEM IS
GETTING AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION IN THE STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE HANDLING OF THE ACTUAL
DISTURBANCE THAT SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SPREAD GREATLY WITH THE POSITION OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS DIGS THE SHORTWAVE
FARTHEST SOUTH AND IT IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION BY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS ALLOWS A GOOD FETCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD RAPIDLY...AND IT IS CONSEQUENTLY THE MOST
BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. IT IS ALSO THE WARMEST
SOLUTION GIVEN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION...ALTHOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE
OTHER GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THEREFORE COLD BUT DRIER.

A LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH CAN
SOMETIMES HELP WITH ASSESSING OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A PARTICULAR
SOLUTION OFFERED LITTLE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR ONE SCENARIO OVER
ANOTHER. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT WILL BE COLD...AND
COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. BUT...THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
GENERALLY OFFERED ONLY A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR ANY APPRECIABLE WINTER
PRECIPITATION. ALL THAT BEING SAID...GIVEN THAT THE PATTERN IS
GENERALLY NOT A VERY FAVORABLE ONE...THINK THE OVERALL CHANCES FOR
A SIGNIFICANT WINTRY EVENT ARE LOW AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ON MONDAY SO IF THERE IS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE THERMAL PROFILE. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA FOR
MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Brent]

GFS is now showing some snow in the metroplex:



The storm at 300 hours is also back... kind of:

[gpsnowman]

Well fart. Too warm it seems for anything significant. Maybe Monday morning we can wake up to a flizzard. And temps will rebound towards 50 by Wednesday. Yuck. Hoping the latter part of February and early March will deliver some magic just like it has the last two years. Weird winter going on right now, not just in Texas but the nation as a whole.

[Brent]

Well fart. Too warm it seems for anything significant. Maybe Monday morning we can wake up to a flizzard. And temps will rebound towards 50 by Wednesday. Yuck. Hoping the latter part of February and early March will deliver some magic just like it has the last two years. Weird winter going on right now, not just in Texas but the nation as a whole.

January's rarely a good snow month here anyway, the climo is clear on that...

[hriverajr]

Looking at some of the models...

Up to 10 days....

(1) Both the GFS and The European have significant differences in the upper air configuration over Canada.
(2) They both indicate a series of 500 mb disturbances moving through the Northern and Northeastern part of the US (Bastardi seems to really like 12Z European )
(3) A couple of distinct disturbances for Texas, one the beginning of this week and perhaps a stronger one anywhere from 9-15 days from now depending on model and model run.
(4) It won't be called warm here in Texas, at times could be a bit cold. Precipitation looks somewhat limited.

After 10 days...

GFS for what it's worth returns back to the pattern we saw in December.

Canadian... run to run issues.

Will see what the models show tomorrow.

[Ntxw]

Well fart. Too warm it seems for anything significant. Maybe Monday morning we can wake up to a flizzard. And temps will rebound towards 50 by Wednesday. Yuck. Hoping the latter part of February and early March will deliver some magic just like it has the last two years. Weird winter going on right now, not just in Texas but the nation as a whole.

Don't give up quite yet, it's still not within 100 hours. It may not be a two feet blizzard but beggars can't be choosers

[gpsnowman]

Well fart. Too warm it seems for anything significant. Maybe Monday morning we can wake up to a flizzard. And temps will rebound towards 50 by Wednesday. Yuck. Hoping the latter part of February and early March will deliver some magic just like it has the last two years. Weird winter going on right now, not just in Texas but the nation as a whole.

January's rarely a good snow month here anyway, the climo is clear on that...

Very true. The last couple of years, here, and around the nation the "January thaw" would be being discussed. None of that this year. Not sure what to call what is happening nationwide. Parts of the country are finally getting cold but not much winter precipitation to speak of. Winter might be a late bloomer this season, and I believe it will. I know the Western portion of the USA has been receiving rain and snow. Lord knows they deserve it. Could be their turn this season, for the population really needs it. If other areas of the country, mainly the West, can get plentiful moisture in spite of other areas that have had plentiful rain, I am all for it. Not to be greedy, but I want a majestic snowfall this season and I want it now!!

[gpsnowman]

Well fart. Too warm it seems for anything significant. Maybe Monday morning we can wake up to a flizzard. And temps will rebound towards 50 by Wednesday. Yuck. Hoping the latter part of February and early March will deliver some magic just like it has the last two years. Weird winter going on right now, not just in Texas but the nation as a whole.

Don't give up quite yet, it's still not within 100 hours. It may not be a two feet blizzard but beggars can't be choosers

I am not giving up yet at all. Just to see some snow fall would be awesome. Other opportunities will happen this winter. Just hungry.

[Ntxw]

It will be interesting to see what comes of the teleconnections the coming weeks. The severe -AO and -NAO we have not seen much of the past two winters. Driven mostly by the EPO. But this is tanking via the Atlantic/Arctic side. Been since 09-10. It's not going to blast, but quiet and stealth cold. Look at the clogged up pattern

It's pouring rain outside as I say this

[Ntxw]

AO forecast is now off the chart.... beginning to trend into 2009-10 range

The last time it was that low in winter

[Ralph's Weather]

I cannot ever recall a time when major Atlantic blocking did not deliver. Watch for the mid month storm to be a significant one. That Feb 2010 chart looks similar to what is modeled for mid Jan this year. And if I recall correctly the other teles were similar to what is modeled for this year.

[orangeblood]

Rehashing Feb 2010


And the Euro Ensemble forecast for day 10....AND THE PLOT THICKENS!!!

[Brent]

Rehashing Feb 2010


And the Euro Ensemble forecast for day 10....AND THE PLOT THICKENS!!!

That definitely thickened the plot...