CPAC: PALI - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN41 PHFO 071154
TCSNP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1155 UTC THU JAN 07 2016

A. Tropical disturbance 90C.

B. 07/1130Z.

C. 3.4°N.

D. 171.2°W.

E. Goes-15/himawari-8.

F. T1.5/1.5/d1.5/24 hours.

G. Ir/eir.

H. Remarks: Shear pattern with center much less than 45 nm from EIR bd dg gives a DT of 3.5. MET is 1.5. PT is 2.5. Final T based on met.

I. Addl positions none.

[Yellow Evan]

3rd 1.5 from SAB in a row:

07/1130 UTC 3.9N 171.1W T1.5/1.5 90C -- Central Pacific

[talkon]

We have TD One-C.

01C ONE 160107 1200 3.7N 171.3W CPAC 30 1004

This is the earliest forming system in the EPAC/CPAC, and I believe also the second-lowest forming TC in EPAC/CPAC behind 09C.

[jaguarjace]

WTPA31 PHFO 071434
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
500 AM HST THU JAN 07 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C FORMS FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...4.0N 171.4W
ABOUT 1500 MI...2410 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 171.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[Alyono]

Best looking "depression" I have ever seen. This is probably a storm

[1900hurricane]

It certainly is taking up quite a bit of real estate.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
500 AM HST THU JAN 07 2016

THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY HAVE PERSISTED SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO CLASSIFY THE
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS LOW-LATITUDE OUT-OF-SEASON SYSTEM
HAS TAPPED INTO SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF THE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS...WITH AN EL-NINO RELATED WESTERLY WIND BURST SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM...AND PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO THE NORTH PROVIDING
THE LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 1.5/25 KT FROM PHFO/SAB TO
2.0/30 KT FROM PGTW...AND THE INTENSITY FOR THIS INITIAL ADVISORY IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT.

THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW...HAS BEEN
DRIFTING GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 350/04 KT. TRACK
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO FAIRLY DISTINCT CAMPS...WITH THE
DIFFERENCES MOST SIGNIFICANT AFTER 72 HOURS. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHWEST. AFTER THIS TIME...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE
RIDGE IS WHERE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
TROUGH FIRST INDUCES A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED...AND THEN AN EAST
TO SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IN THE GFS/HWRF/GFDL/TVCN SOLUTIONS. THE
ECMWF/NAVGEM/CMC ON THE OTHER HAND DEPICT A WEAKER TROUGH...AND
MAINTAIN A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE CYCLONE IS
STEERED BY THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE
TO THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE AND TVCN CONSENSUS THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND THEN FAVORS THE SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE
GFS/HWRF/GFDL/TVCN...FORECASTING A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS IVCN AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...
ANTICIPATING A RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL DAYS 4 AND 5. DESPITE THE
SEASON...SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO
SUPPORT A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS EXPECTED
TO BE INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THE DEVELOPING TROUGH ALOFT IN WHICH THE
CYCLONE MAY BECOME EMBEDDED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 4.0N 171.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 4.8N 171.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 5.7N 172.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 6.6N 172.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 7.0N 173.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 7.5N 173.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 7.5N 172.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 7.0N 171.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[Kingarabian]

Would've went straight to a TS.

[Alyono]

Just ran an ADT on this using an irregular CDO pattern. Got a value of 3.0

[1900hurricane]

RSCAT shows tropical storm winds.

[Alyono]

SSD now at 2.5, CPHC at 3.0

[Alyono]

very well could have a hurricane by this time tomorrow

[1900hurricane]

I was also thinking that could be a possibility. The latest microwave pass certainly shows a good starting structure. Dry air does lurk to the north, but conditions are good in the near future if 01C avoids ingesting any.

[Alyono]

CPHC has 30 kts in their best track, against ALL evidence

[stormwise]

The area of thunderstorms in the central pacific did get upgraded to Tropical Depression interesting development.

[NotoSans]

We now have TS PALI.

Tropical Storm Pali Advisory Number 002
Issued at 1100 AM HST THU JAN 07 2016
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location: 4.7N 171.2W
ABOUT 1450 MI...2335 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
Maximum sustained winds: 50 MPH...85 KM/H
Present movement: NNW or 342 degrees AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[RL3AO]

CPHC has 30 kts in their best track, against ALL evidence

Maybe they heard you. 45 knots in advisory.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA21 PHFO 072035
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM PALI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
2100 UTC THU JAN 07 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 4.7N 171.2W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 342 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 90SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 4.7N 171.2W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 171.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 5.7N 171.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 55SE 80SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 6.8N 172.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 65NE 50SE 65SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 7.3N 173.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 35SE 50SW 55NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 7.3N 173.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 35SE 50SW 55NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 7.2N 173.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 35SE 45SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 7.0N 173.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 6.8N 173.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 4.7N 171.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[Yellow Evan]

The way this is going 45 knots may be conservative. While wind shear will prevent a potent hurricane most likely, given the nice structure and solid outflow, don't see a reason, unless shear increases, why we won't have a minimal hurricane within the next 12-24 hours.

[northjaxpro]

I agree. Pali I believe will be able to attain hurricane status, probably within 24 hours. Pali has an excellent moisture envelope and overall good structure, and ssts are still rather warm in the area the storm is in to support additional development.