Low pressure in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 90L)

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jan 04, 2016 1:18 pm

ECMWF is at it again near the Bahamas and then shoots NE with a hybrid type system.

72 hours.

96 hours.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jan 05, 2016 4:05 pm

ECMWF keeps showing this hybrid type system. Something or nothing?

#3 Postby **xironman** » Wed Jan 06, 2016 11:37 am

Reverse Cape Verde?

#4 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Jan 06, 2016 9:26 pm

xironman wrote:Reverse Cape Verde?

In January, that actually makes a lot more sense since the flow is west to east even in the mid-tropics. To go east to west would need a track near the equator and bumping into South America.

#5 Postby **xironman** » Thu Jan 07, 2016 4:21 am

It certainly is unusual

#6 Postby **xironman** » Thu Jan 07, 2016 8:15 am

It is going to be a long trip to Portugal.

#7 Postby **northjaxpro** » Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:35 am

xironman wrote:It is going to be a long trip to Portugal.
http://i.imgur.com/xSRrn5D.jpg

Yeah, a long trip indeed. But, this Gale system looks good this morning and is deepening, now analyzed at 997 mb. It has dropped 13 mb in pressure since last night. Very large storm out there in the Atlantic. This Gale system really contributed in tightening the pressure gradient across my region yesterday. Strong High to the north/northeast and the Gale exiting the Bahamas bought about about the squeeze play from the northeast. Northeast wind gusted as high as 34 mph at my locale yesterday as that system was developing yesterday.

#8 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:48 am

This is a pretty neat system. The models show the structure of this disturbance becoming more warm-core in nature over the next few days, but it is definitely being influenced by an upper tropospheric potential vorticity anomaly. Here's a 12-hour forecast from the 06Z GFS showing the tongue of higher PV extending towards the disturbance:

It might evolve into one of those compact-cored systems embedded in a larger synoptic scale disturbance. Subtropical development is certainly possible.

#9 Postby **northjaxpro** » Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:55 am

I would not be surprised SouthDade if it transitioned to that. This unique system really looks good and the visible imagery really shows that small, compact center quite well.

#10 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Jan 07, 2016 2:47 pm

I decided to start a discussion folder on the Bahamas low. It would be crazy if we could get a storm out of it in January...but it happened in 1938, 1951 and 1978.

TheStormExpert · #11 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Thu Jan 07, 2016 2:57 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I decided to start a discussion folder on the Bahamas low. It would be crazy if we could get a storm out of it in January...but it happened in 1938, 1951 and 1978.

Sounds like history could repeat itself again! :wink:

NotoSans · #12 Postby **NotoSans** » Thu Jan 07, 2016 3:35 pm

1. An extratropical low pressure system centered about 425 miles west-
southwest of Bermuda is producing a large area of gale force winds
and maximum winds of 60 to 65 mph. Environmental conditions are not
expected to be conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone
formation through the weekend while the low moves east-northeastward
into the central Atlantic Ocean. However, conditions could become
conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical
characteristics while it moves east-southeastward into the eastern
subtropical Atlantic Ocean by the middle of next week. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by
3 PM EST Friday. For additional information on this system, please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

#13 Postby **xironman** » Thu Jan 07, 2016 5:24 pm

Hey, at least it is a yellow http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

#14 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jan 07, 2016 5:51 pm

I am sure this Godzilla El Nino has something to do with this forming as well. Seems to have thrown weather patterns in this part of the world in a big loop. Looks rather good for sure on SAT imagery!

#15 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Jan 07, 2016 5:53 pm

It should be declared 90L soon at this rate...

#16 Postby **northjaxpro** » Thu Jan 07, 2016 6:15 pm

gatorcane wrote:I am sure this Godzilla El Nino has something to do with this forming as well. Seems to have thrown weather patterns in this part of the world in a big loop. Looks rather good for sure on SAT imagery!

Agreed!

KatDaddy · #17 Postby **KatDaddy** » Thu Jan 07, 2016 6:28 pm

A friendly reminder that the 2016 Hurricane Season is on the way :wink:

Nothing like a SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK in January. Hopefully this is not a sign of the upcoming hurricane but if El Nino goes neutral or a weak La Nina, it could be interesting.

#18 Postby **MGC** » Thu Jan 07, 2016 6:41 pm

Code Yellow! What is the first name on 2016 list?....MGC

#19 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Jan 07, 2016 6:47 pm

MGC wrote:Code Yellow! What is the first name on 2016 list?....MGC

First name is Alex.

stormwise · #20 Postby **stormwise** » Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:34 pm

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/rsca ... MBds19.png

Impressive cyclone , more so than the cpac TS.

Low pressure in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 90L)

Low pressure in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 90L)

Low pressure centered between the east coast and Bermuda

Low pressure centered between the east coast and Bermuda

Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

Low pressure centered between the east coast and Bermuda

Low pressure centered between the east coast and Bermuda

Low pressure centered between the east coast and Bermuda

Low pressure centered between the east coast and Bermuda

Low pressure centered between the east coast and Bermuda

Re: Possible hybrid low near Bahamas

Low pressure centered between the east coast and Bermuda

Re:

Re: Possible hybrid low near Bahamas

Re: Possible hybrid low near Bahamas

Re: Possible hybrid low near Bahamas

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