Texas Winter 2015-2016

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Portastorm
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Re:

#1921 Postby Portastorm » Fri Jan 08, 2016 11:15 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Wxman you beat me to the punch. While this may be very very far out, i think this storm will result in some winter weather for someone in Texas. The AO around this time will have fallen off the table, consensus is clear about that, so this low is something to keep an eye on. Its so far out, yes, but the Jan 15-22nd time frame i think we need to keep an eye on.

Also, for whatever reason, the air currently in the arctic isnt brutally cold. Maue posted a map that shows a massive high coming into Siberia @168 hrs. The cold basically sticks around in that region till the end of the run. Maybe, we can tap into this cold in the future.


Have you looked at the current temperartures in Canada? Pretty much the entire central, northern, and northwestern parts of the country are currently at or below zero (F). That's pretty darn cold. And that's right now. By later this next week and with some cross-polar flow possibly developing those will drop further.
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Re: Re:

#1922 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Jan 08, 2016 11:21 am

Portastorm wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Wxman you beat me to the punch. While this may be very very far out, i think this storm will result in some winter weather for someone in Texas. The AO around this time will have fallen off the table, consensus is clear about that, so this low is something to keep an eye on. Its so far out, yes, but the Jan 15-22nd time frame i think we need to keep an eye on.

Also, for whatever reason, the air currently in the arctic isnt brutally cold. Maue posted a map that shows a massive high coming into Siberia @168 hrs. The cold basically sticks around in that region till the end of the run. Maybe, we can tap into this cold in the future.


Have you looked at the current temperartures in Canada? Pretty much the entire central, northern, and northwestern parts of the country are currently at or below zero (F). That's pretty darn cold. And that's right now. By later this next week and with some cross-polar flow possibly developing those will drop further.


That is pretty cold, youre right, but i think colder temps would really help us drive more cold air into the south. Much of the arctic is currently above normal, would love for there to be some below normal temps that we can tap into at some point this season. You have always said though, we dont need the brutally cold temps for snow, so my fingers are crossed!
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Re:

#1923 Postby hriverajr » Fri Jan 08, 2016 11:38 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Wxman you beat me to the punch. While this may be very very far out, i think this storm will result in some winter weather for someone in Texas. The AO around this time will have fallen off the table, consensus is clear about that, so this low is something to keep an eye on. Its so far out, yes, but the Jan 15-22nd time frame i think we need to keep an eye on.

Also, for whatever reason, the air currently in the arctic isnt brutally cold. Maue posted a map that shows a massive high coming into Siberia @168 hrs. The cold basically sticks around in that region till the end of the run. Maybe, we can tap into this cold in the future.


Hey i drew attention to this yesterday :P
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#1924 Postby SouthernMet » Fri Jan 08, 2016 11:44 am

FWIW... RGEM has been showing some backside precip tomorrow morning, but surface temps would be in the mid 30's. Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#1925 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Jan 08, 2016 11:50 am

Image
Came across this map for between tonight and tomorrow morning on fb. Not sure how reliable it is, just thought I would share. Thoughts?
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#1926 Postby GRAYSONCO.WX » Fri Jan 08, 2016 11:51 am

SouthernMet wrote:FWIW... RGEM has been showing some backside precip tomorrow morning, but surface temps would be in the mid 30's. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... scus_8.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... scus_9.png


HRRR (the experimental one that goes out 24 hours) is showing the same thing. Showing snow for the northern two rows of Counties in north Texas.
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#1927 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Jan 08, 2016 12:17 pm

6z GFS was super fun for me in Ohio with 20 inches of snow, 12z GFS not as much, but it does look like the Alberta clippers could occur often over the next few weeks, unfortunately I don't have full access to the Euro to see what it's saying.
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#1928 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Jan 08, 2016 12:25 pm

If you guys thought the 0z Thursday CFS looked like fun, the 0z Friday looks even better with 60 inches of snow poking into Eastern Ohio and a foot of snow making it all the way down to Porta! :D Note: this isn't happening all at once and it could be an inch of snow that melts and that is repeated 12 times.

Image
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Though a lot of this snow occurs in 450 hours or earlier, I don't know how trustful this model is. This model is pretty much all fantasy land. :( But it sure is fun to look at!
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Re:

#1929 Postby SouthernMet » Fri Jan 08, 2016 12:27 pm

TheProfessor wrote:6z GFS was super fun for me in Ohio with 20 inches of snow, 12z GFS not as much, but it does look like the Alberta clippers could occur often over the next few weeks, unfortunately I don't have full access to the Euro to see what it's saying.


This is the texas thread.

Here is the Ohio thread :wink: viewtopic.php?f=22&t=117772
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Re: Re:

#1930 Postby GRAYSONCO.WX » Fri Jan 08, 2016 12:31 pm

SouthernMet wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:6z GFS was super fun for me in Ohio with 20 inches of snow, 12z GFS not as much, but it does look like the Alberta clippers could occur often over the next few weeks, unfortunately I don't have full access to the Euro to see what it's saying.


This is the texas thread.

Here is the Ohio thread :wink: viewtopic.php?f=22&t=117772

No lies detected ;)
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#1931 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 08, 2016 12:52 pm

TheProfessor is a true Texan at heart :wink:
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#1932 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Jan 08, 2016 12:53 pm

RGEM still showing wrap around rain/snow Sat morning for N and NE TX accumulations look to be confined to areas west of I-35 as surface temps look to be too warm further east for it to stick. This model can hit sometimes but typically it is too wet, its temps usually seem decent though. It is going to be cold aloft so I the idea is not too far out there. Could be similar to what Del Rio saw recently with snow mixing in with temps in the mid to upper 30s. Areas NW of the cities could get a lucky inch though with temps closer to freezing.
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Re: Re:

#1933 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 08, 2016 12:55 pm

SouthernMet wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:6z GFS was super fun for me in Ohio with 20 inches of snow, 12z GFS not as much, but it does look like the Alberta clippers could occur often over the next few weeks, unfortunately I don't have full access to the Euro to see what it's saying.


This is the texas thread.

Here is the Ohio thread :wink: viewtopic.php?f=22&t=117772


:roflmao:
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#1934 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Jan 08, 2016 12:56 pm

I'll take that CFS model run :lol: . At the very least it looks like we could have a shot of something wintry over the next two weeks.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#1935 Postby Portastorm » Fri Jan 08, 2016 1:33 pm

:uarrow:

Kudos to TheProfessor for brightening my day! :D

Meanwhile, I just saw on Twitter than WSI Energy mentioning North Atlantic blocking episode starting next week and progged to last several weeks. Strongest in at least three years according to them. Will have consequences backstream.
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#1936 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Jan 08, 2016 1:41 pm

The high today is suppose to be around the mid 50s, it's currently 43 under mostly cloudy skies and a NE wind at 12 mph. Unless something changes I don't see it getting to the forecasted high or even to 50 today.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#1937 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Jan 08, 2016 1:54 pm

WOWW euro run for next weekend is colddddddddddddddd
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#1938 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Fri Jan 08, 2016 2:05 pm

Forecast high for this time of day was supposed to be around 65 and it's 54..doesn't seem like it will get much warmer and it feels downright damp and chilly. Grapevine/Southlake area.
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#1939 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 08, 2016 2:09 pm

Euro took a page out of the Gfs crazy book
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#1940 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Jan 08, 2016 2:10 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Image
Came across this map for between tonight and tomorrow morning on fb. Not sure how reliable it is, just thought I would share. Thoughts?

He is usually pretty good.
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