Florida Weather

[HURRICANELONNY]

I was going to post the latest AO/NAO/PNA. You beat me to it. It's definitely a sign but they are all models and they tend to flip flop. I'm hoping it's right and some nice cool air can gets down here in S.Fl before the winter is over.

[Sanibel]

Mid 70's down here. Not too bad.

Warmer tomorrow.

[northjaxpro]

It has been an interesting, refreshingly cool, albeit damp and breezy period the past several days here in the Jax area. It has mainly been in the 50s for max temps and generally in the 40s for minimums at my locale since last Sunday. Yesterday was the coldest day of this so called winter season to this point with a max temp of only 50.4 degrees, following a minimum of 36.7 degrees Tuesday morning. The orientation of the High Pressure axis, being well north of the Florida peninsula, did not allow the Jax metro area to get to the freeze mark on Tuesday morning, as the onshore flow from the High settled in over the area. There were some spots in interior North Florida in the Suwanee River Valley and points in interior SE GA that managed to touch the freeze mark yesterday morning being far enough away from the modifying influences of the onshore flow from off the Atlantic Ocean.

The large, 1034mb Polar High, responsible for this recent cool spell across the northern and central FL peninsula, has been anchored across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region the past few days. A strengthening 1010 mb Gale center, moving away from the Bahamas this evening, is combining with the High to the north to bring an impressive pressure gradient out of the northeast down across the Florida peninsula. My weather station recorded a northeast wind gust up to 34 mph earlier this afternoon.





We will squeeze out one more day of cool, brisk northeast wind conditions early in the day on Thursday, as the gale center moving away from the Bahamas will slowly move out to the northeast. The pressure gradient over the region should gradually slacken later in the day, as the Low Pressure area exiting the Bahamas moves farther out to sea. The onshore flow will bring light rain along portions of the Florida East Coast through tomorrow. Temps will begin to modify beginning Friday across the peninsula, with return southerly flow as the models are showing a shortwave trough across the Plains moving northeast this weekend. A surface Low will develop from this disturbance, with a cold front extending from the Low south through the Deep South, and into North Florida by Sunday. Some rain will develop ahead and along the frontal boundary, but the models are showing the best dynamics at this time for the stronger storms will be well north of the peninsula. The front will make its way down into the remainder of the peninsula by late Sunday evening. Temps will be near climo averages for early January this upcoming Sunday into Monday.

Taking a peek into the extended period, things potentially could be shaping up to be rather interesting over the next 10-14 days. The GFS model runs since yesterday have really latched on to the depiction of having a very active Subtropical Jet to really get cranking. GFS shows the potential of a series of Low Pressure systems emerging out of the GOM and potentially impacting the Florida peninsula during this extended period.

Also, it is becoming increasingly apparent to me that a classic split flow pattern will be establishing itself across the CONUS for much of the extended period. This is typical of a strong El Nino winter indeed. The Polar Jet will bring down reinforcing shots of colder airmasses down the Lee side of the Rockies as an upper level ridge looks to get established across the Pacific Northwest and an upper level long wave trough develops over the Eastern CONUS. One of the most critical elements for Florida in the winter, the NAO, remains the key on whether if it can move into the negative phase. As shown above by StormExpert and as I looked over the teleconnections forecasts later this month, both the AO and NAO may go negative, along with the +PNA, which is continued to be forecasted as we get deeper into January. Still, I am at the point in which I have to see it happen to believe it, especially considering how anomalously warm this El Nino has been up until the start of January 2016. Nevertheless, if the forecasts bear out, we have not seen such a favorable teleconnections set-up to bring cold to Florida like this in several years. A big IF still, but should this come anywhere close to fruition, this possibly could help bring these Polar High Pressure domes to build down much farther to the south into the Lower MS Valley and into the Southeast U.S. This would be a much favorable position for these Highs to be orientated in order to bring a decent amount of cold air to drain down toward the Florida peninsula. This current pattern all Fall/Winter season has kept these Polar Highs to be positioned too far north and eventually east of the peninsula, thanks to the positive NAO in large part. This keeps the coldest of the air well north of Florida. Still a BIG IF at this moment, but for the first time this winter, the teleconnections may favorably align later this month just enough to potentially bring FINALLY the first freeze of the season to the Jax area later this month. We shall see!

A caveat to remember: Although there is potential for a series of cold air surges to come down into the Eastern CONUS during the next couple of weeks, one factor to be mindful of is the tremendous lack of snowcover all across the Eastern U.S. I am thinking that although it will be cold, the air masses may modify quickly and the models may go too cold biased. This remains to be seen, but I feel this may lead to tough forecasts temperature wise down the road, especially in the areas like here in Florida in which the ground is still relatively warm, thanks to such an unseasonably warm period this Fall/Winter. (Still no frost yet here at my locale this season)

Also, keep in mind that with the strong STJ, if it verifies to become very active in the extended, may also serve as a saving grace to my friends down in the central and southern peninsula to spare from potential freezes as the upper level moisture and energy riding along the southern jet would potentially keep clouds around in those areas.

As a side interest, I also think with this split flow pattern, watch for a potential of wintry precip over portions of the Deep South, along with the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic as we progress further into this month. As I mentioned just above, these polar air masses may modify quickly and not be as cold as one would think they should be in January due to the lack of a snow pack across the Eastern CONUS. But, it still should be cold enough to support the potential of wintry precip in areas of the Deep South. A lot will depend on the timing of the reinforcing cold shots coming down into the region, and the exact tracks of these potential southern stream systems. But, the right combination/ i.e. set-ups could lead to wintry precip later in the month for the aforementioned areas in this paragraph. It would not shock me in the least and it is something to monitor later this month.

So, I have rambled on enough for now. But, to sum-up, the cool, wet, stormy side of El Nino may be finally setting in across the peninsula in the days and possible weeks to come. Let me put it this way: The unbelievable lucky run of unseasonable, record warmth many folks across Florida and the Eastern CONUS had experienced going back to the beginning of November 2015, all the way to the start of 2016 is now hopefully a distant memory!

[StormingB81]

Northjax you can probably add last year because it didn't really get cold here last year either.

[northjaxpro]

Well Stormie, relatively speaking, we have not had a really cold winter across the peninsula as a whole since 2009-10 season. The NAO really tanked to record levels during that winter season.

Last year was overall warm as well, until mid February, when we finally got a decent cold spell to come in and give a few freezes late in the season here at my locale. As warm as it was last winter season, we did have a cold spell this time exactly one year ago here in Northeast Florida. That cold spell gave me and everyone here in Jax a surprise ocean-effect light snow event exactly one year ago tomorrow, January 8, 2015.

Hopefully, we will have a couple of opportunities to get some decent cold spells to possibly head toward the peninsula in the long range, which I discussed at length in my earlier post above on this page.

[FLCrackerGirl]

Thanks northjaxpro! That was a Great break-down on how conditions maybe changing up.

We finally saw the sun peek out this morning for a bit after 2 full days of constant, drizzly rain with CDO here in Indian River Co. (Central East Coast). Amazing the KRVB station only recorded less than 1.25". It was soooo sloppy & steady.

[northjaxpro]

Thanks FLCracker Girl!! I had a bit of extra time last night to chat on the forum so to speak....

[StormingB81]

Well I was gone and didn't come back until 2014 so that's my excuse haha but yea I'm ready for some cold the severe weather I don't know about as we seen it in 2007 and 1998

[StormingB81]

Well I was gone and didn't come back until 2014 so that's my excuse haha but yea I'm ready for some cold the severe weather I don't know about as we seen it in 2007 and 1998

[psyclone]

fast changing, active weather pattern is establishing itself...we're a million miles from the December heatwave.

[HURRICANELONNY]

With the AO predicted to go extremely negative. What effects does that have in the U.S????

[northjaxpro]

With the AO predicted to go extremely negative. What effects does that have in the U.S????

Basically, a negative Arctic Oscillation phase helps to push down arctic or polar air masses farther south down into the CONUS caused by weakening upper level westerlies. The PV in the Arctic region is also weakened there as well, which also aids in the process to drive polar air south into the U.S. with a - AO. A negative AO is important in helping deliver polar air southward. But, a negative AO doesn't always bring very cold air toward Florida. A combination of a positive PNA (higher pressures west of the Rockies along the U.S. Pacific coast or north to Alaska) with a negative AO can bring the Southeast U.S. and Florida decent cold spells during the winter. However, for Florida during the winter, a negative NAO is critical because a blocking pattern (higher pressures) over Greenland would promote the delivery of very extreme cold, arctic air with the development of very deep upper level low pressure trough, which funnels down south through Eastern North America all the way in extreme cases to Florida. The lower pressure extremes bring down extremely crippling, cold arctic outbreaks and stormy weather in extreme -NAO indexes, as what we saw occur in Florida in December 1989, and most recently during the 2009-10 winter as two of the best examples.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Thats for the explanation northjaxpro. Hopefully the NAO goes extemely negative to.

[northjaxpro]

Well, I want colder weather down here certainly. But, be careful you don't want crippling cold. I remember January 1985 like yesterday. when it got down to 7 degrees here in Jax, the all-time record, and everything froze over from the pipes in my house to car radiators. That was rough... as miserable as it could get. You don't want to go through anything like that I can rest assure you!

I can live with what we had here in December 1989 with the white Christmas though! That was awesome, except for the icy roads lol....

[NDG]

Good chance of 30s making it down to central FL for lows at least Thursday morning of next week but because of cloud cover from the active subtropical jet temps will fall short of the freezing mark, at least along the I-4 corridor, IMO.

[psyclone]

30's will feel absolutely frigid. upper 40's is as cold as I've been so far and that felt cold.

[gatorcane]

The CMC brings low 30s into Central Florida Wed. night...

[Sanibel]

That would translate to the upper 40's for us by the coast and just be an average cold winter night.

[NDG]

The CMC brings low 30s into Central Florida Wed. night...

Lol, good thing is just the crazy uncle.
In another words chances of it verifying are very low.

[gatorcane]

Whoa the latest Euro sends a MASSIVE arctic blast deep into the CONUS headed for Florida....in the long-range but yikes...