Texas Winter 2015-2016

[orangeblood]

Euro took a page out of the Gfs crazy book

They're going to have a very difficult time handling the blocking over the pole, all the shortwaves moving in from the Pacific....we know it's going to get cold, just how cold ? any precip ?
Probably won't have a clue until the 1st of next week....

[weatherdude1108]

6z GFS was super fun for me in Ohio with 20 inches of snow, 12z GFS not as much, but it does look like the Alberta clippers could occur often over the next few weeks, unfortunately I don't have full access to the Euro to see what it's saying.

This is the texas thread.

Here is the Ohio thread viewtopic.php?f=22&t=117772

That is what I was thinking. But like Ntxw said, he is a Texan at heart.

[gatorcane]

Euro took a page out of the Gfs crazy book

Looks like an epic arctic blast to me maybe even freezing most of Florida if this run went out a little further. I hope this Euro is wrong

[ThunderSleetDreams]

That Euro looks amazing. Want!!!

[Brent]

Sign me up and that's the same time as that storm system that is has been strongly signaled

[stormlover2013]

don't sign me up yet, still long ways to go.....models seem to always disappoint us and leave us heart broken lol, now if it shows this come monday then ill be pumped but not getting excited right now

[srainhoutx]

The ECMWF EPS supports the OP 12Z Euro. Looking chilly and unsettled across the Gulf Coastal States.

[Tireman4]

This could be an interesting set of weeks coming up

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Alright Euro, thats what im talking about! 9 days or not, that time period looks like a wonderful time for some action based on the teleconnections.

1052 crossing into Canada, 1039 High when it makes it deep into Texas. Now we need good timing.

Also, even thoguh you dont get this much from the Euro, you have to think it wont be sooo cold and the low wont dig as far south when these models get past 7 days. So so far, i like the look of it.

[northjaxpro]

This could be an interesting set of weeks coming up

Agree! If we have the subtropical jet become very active, which the models for the most part have consistently been showing in the extended 10 day outlook, things really could get interesting if the timing of these cold spells interact with southern stream systems. This pertains to Texas and even the Deep South and possibly the Gulf Coast region with regards to possible wintry precip potential next 10-14 days.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Maue said it best...

"Who had Brownsville, TX getting snow before Washington DC?"

[TeamPlayersBlue]

We need to see this again for another run then we can put more weight into it. This is the first real run with this kind of cold.

[Stormcenter]

Can someone please post an image? Thanks!

Euro took a page out of the Gfs crazy book

[KatDaddy]

While we wait for much colder weather we have Spring tonight for SE TX. We win first Severe Thunderstorm Watch of 2016!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS running now is stickin to its guns on the arctic outbreak for the lower 48 and into Texas...

[Ralph's Weather]

We need to see this again for another run then we can put more weight into it. This is the first real run with this kind of cold.

Agreed, but at least it is not something out of the blue as with the teles modeled a significant cold blast would be expected. And it sounds like the 18Z GFS continues with the cold.

[gatorcane]

228 hours as the arctic blast sags south:

[Ralph's Weather]

For tonight and tomorrow's storm looks like snow for NW TX and storms for SE TX. For North and NE TX we look to be in between with not much precip tonight though E TX could get in on a few storms and likely too warm for any snowflakes to reach the ground though a few may survive tomorrow.

For Monday it is still looking too dry for much of anything and temps will be borderline anyway. All eyes on next weekend after tonight's SE TX storms and Plains snow.

[wxman57]

Well, I'm off to New Orleans tomorrow for the annual AMS meeting. Was hoping to find some nice warm air there, but no such luck. Going pack another coat in my bag.

Have a lunch date with Phil Klotzach on Monday. Will see what he thinks about 2016 hurricane season analogs.

[1900hurricane]

Supercells everywhere! It almost looks like a tornado outbreak, but with a crap boundary layer, they're all elevated.