Texas Winter 2015-2016

[BigB0882]

If it shows 60 degrees at nearly 400 hours and we know how wrong it is then I think it is safe to assume there will actually be frigid cold and the entire country will be below freezing with snow for everyone! yay!!

[Brent]

Not terrible up in N TX

[1900hurricane]

Was in the heights during one of the cells yesterday and had dime sized hail easily. Was very nervous when i saw how the storms looked when they popped up.

Ryan - when you say bad boundary layer, what do you mean? I get elevated, as in they popped up over a certain layer in the atmosphere. Is that what you mean?

Those storms really exploded on us.

Sorry, just now saw this. In any case, it looks like Portastorm was there to cover for me. Thanks!

:uarrow:

Per NWS:

Boundary Layer
In general, a layer of air adjacent to a bounding surface. Specifically, the term most often refers to the planetary boundary layer, which is the layer within which the effects of friction are significant. For the earth, this layer is considered to be roughly the lowest one or two kilometers of the atmosphere. It is within this layer that temperatures are most strongly affected by daytime insolation and nighttime radiational cooling, and winds are affected by friction with the earth's surface. The effects of friction die out gradually with increasing height, so the "top" of this layer cannot be defined exactly.

There is a thin layer immediately above the earth's surface known as the surface boundary layer (or simply the surface layer). This layer is only a portion of the planetary boundary layer, and represents the layer within which friction effects are more or less constant throughout (as opposed to decreasing with height, as they do above it). The surface boundary layer is roughly 10 meters thick (from the surface up to 10 m above the ground), but again the exact depth is indeterminate. Like friction, the effects of insolation and radiational cooling are strongest within this layer.


Here is a decent explanation of the difference between surface-based and elevated storms:
http://www.iowachase.com/elevated-surface-based-storms-what-does-it-mean/

[Brent]

0z Euro also has some light snow around N TX at the end of the run, granted, it's 10 days out basically

[TheProfessor]

My eyes will have to adjust to the brightness, but I'm digging the new look.

[gpsnowman]

Whoa! I forgot the update was happening. Took me a few seconds to realize what was going on. Yeah, it will take a while to acclimate.

Brent, I noticed you are nearing your 30,000th post. What say we celebrate with a huge snowstorm.

[EnnisTx]

Y'all bring the snow I'll buy the beer!

[Wntrwthrguy]

I really thought with an El Niño we would have a lot more rain. In Austin we are behind for the month so far and this next week looks dry.

[Portastorm]

I really thought with an El Niño we would have a lot more rain. In Austin we are behind for the month so far and this next week looks dry.

While we may be "dry" early in January, don't forget that we (Austin) ended 2015 as the second wettest year on record with a lot of that coming in the last few months. El Nino has certainly delivered the goods thus far.

[CaptinCrunch]

From this morning FTW AFD

THE FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE COMPLICATED DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES AND LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CONSISTENT TRENDS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL HAVE DIFFERENT POSITIONAL TRACKS AND TIMING WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. DESPITE THEIR VARIED HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM...THEIR INDIVIDUAL TRACKS AND TIMING KEEP THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUTSIDE OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUS HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND KEEP THE CHANCES CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN THIRD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH OF A THUNDER OR SEVERE THREAT IN OUR AREA.

ALL OF THE MODELS DO INDICATE ANOTHER TROUGH OR POSSIBLY TWO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND...ONE POSSIBLY ON FRIDAY AND THEN THE NEXT ONE POTENTIALLY SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY AND HAVE LOW RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS...THE SURFACE PATTERNS ARE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT AS WELL BUT THEY HAVE SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD AIR PLUNGE WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AND BOTH MODELS HINT AT A POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS BUT KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EVEN NEXT WEEK.

So we have something to watch over the coming week.

[orangeblood]

GFS has finally come more in line with the other models....has the gulf low forming with Arctic Air in place (8-9 day range)

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has lots of snow for central TX the 18th/19th. Even snow for South Louisiana.

[Brent]

[wxman57]

Still not much snow for the D-FW area - it's all to the south!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

And I'm going to win the 1.5 billion dollar powerball next Wednesday. Realistically probably a better chance of that happening than the gfs verifying

[Brent]

The 12z Euro has a big storm out around 200 hours again

8-10" falls north of Austin on the clown map with several inches even in DFW

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro also shows snow across central TX in about 8-9 days. Austin and College Station would get 4-6 inches if the Euro verified.

[srainhoutx]

12z Euro also shows snow across central TX in about 8-9 days. Austin and College Station would get 4-6 inches if the Euro verified.

Coastal low begins to organize near Brownsville a week from today after the cold air is established over Texas. The guidance is trending toward a possible phase of the Northern and Southern jet which is what will need to be monitored as we get closer.

[Ntxw]

Hoping Euro verifies for Portastorm. That is a lot of Texas real estate covered in snow. Closed for business

[wxman57]

12z Euro also shows snow across central TX in about 8-9 days. Austin and College Station would get 4-6 inches if the Euro verified.

At 240hrs, the Euro has a bullseye of over 12" of snow in central Texas. Looks like it's centered very near Austin.