Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

Just based on forecasts that I've seen it appears that the moisture is there for Friday night into Saturday but it doesn't appear that the cold really is. I know it usually ends up being colder that models or forecasts show but I really don't know. I guess it's a waiting game.

There is some fresh cold air coming behind it, it's not stagnant old cold. I would be more worried about the moisture return then temps aloft. Models have been trending wetter and more defined system for Saturday. The trend has been your friend the past 2 days from nothing to something better as the timeframe continues to move up.

And I'm not basing this all on GFS voodoo, I've seen the other OP guidance as well as ensemble members

[1900hurricane]

Lots of convection driven by ENSO/MJO across the eastern and central tropical Pacific. Amidst the convection is NH Hurricane Pali and a coherent SH disturbance that guidance suggests could develop a few days down the road. With this magnitude of tropical forcing, the subtropical jet stream should remain active for the upcoming period. Whether it sets up in a favorable location to enhance mid and upper level moisture across Texas remains to be seen (it is a little too far south at the current moment, for what it's worth), especially considering the continued chaotic nature of the N Pacific mid-latitudes.



(Testing new Imgur account; this post may have multiple edits)

[Ntxw]

Here's the Snowmaggedon section of Feb 2010 since I keep saying it . I think those maps look even more marginal than the system this Saturday. Heights were not that impressive with that system. Models kept saying it was going to be too warm, and moisture would be cutoff due to it's position to the coastal regions.

phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106895&start=5640

Side note: Looking back the importance of hosting images instead of hotlinking them. Meaning host them first and not directly linking us because it will change as the data change vs being the same to look back on.

[Brent]

It's trying:

[Ntxw]

Here is the 12z GFS noon saturday Skew T assuming it is correct. Entire column is below 0C, dendritic growth zone (-10/-20C) is saturated for ideal growth. Only flaw is the immedate surface in the mid to upper 30s. It would snow but melt at the surface.

[stormlover2013]

yep has to be colder, which models do struggle on with 4-5 days out

[Ntxw]

And of course the Canadian is bone dry

[stormlover2013]

cmc will come around on Thursday maybe lol

[orangeblood]

And of course the Canadian is bone dry

This jet stream is so fast that I don't think we can discount the Canadian solution

[Ntxw]

And of course the Canadian is bone dry

This jet stream is so fast that I don't think we can discount the Canadian solution

I hope it delivers because it's going to be our best shot with cold air around and a displaced PV anomaly in southern Canada. After the relaxation of the AO Pacific air will likely come back into the pattern for a bit with lowering heights in the GOA so more waiting if it's a swing and miss.

Models are already eyeing a firehose into the Pac NW and northern California.

[stormlover2013]

I am not really looking at moisture right now I am looking to see if its going to be cold enough on these runs today-Thursday...how cold is the CMC?

[Ralph's Weather]

Here is the 12z GFS noon saturday Skew T assuming it is correct. Entire column is below 0C, dendritic growth zone (-10/-20C) is saturated for ideal growth. Only flaw is the immedate surface in the mid to upper 30s. It would snow but melt at the surface.

Wouldn't you expect wet bulbing to get temps down below 35 with that much moisture above with north low level winds?

[orangeblood]

I am not really looking at moisture right now I am looking to see if its going to be cold enough on these runs today-Thursday...how cold is the CMC?

Not cold enough, highs in the low 40's on Monday

[Ntxw]

Here is the 12z GFS noon saturday Skew T assuming it is correct. Entire column is below 0C, dendritic growth zone (-10/-20C) is saturated for ideal growth. Only flaw is the immedate surface in the mid to upper 30s. It would snow but melt at the surface.

Wouldn't you expect wet bulbing to get temps down below 35 with that much moisture above with north low level winds?

Maybe but I'm not interested in the surface temperatures 4 days out. I'm looking for good 5h, and moisture return. If height falls are sufficient surface will cool.

And yes I know this is a marginal thing and it may not align perfectly as we always need around here. But you have to like your trend to at least see something. Not that long ago there was nothing.

[Ralph's Weather]

Maybe but I'm not interested in the surface temperatures 4 days out. I'm looking for good 5h, and moisture return. If height falls are sufficient surface will cool.

Agreed with you on that. The upper level pattern looks good and there is plenty of cold up north.

Here is the 12Z GFS 500mb chart for Friday night


Here is the 500 mb chart for the morning of 2/11/2010


Incredibly similar pattern the current storm is shown to be a bit stronger, but also a bit further north. Most features are very similar across NA to that day though everything is a bit more amplified with the current set up.

[Ntxw]

Maybe but I'm not interested in the surface temperatures 4 days out. I'm looking for good 5h, and moisture return. If height falls are sufficient surface will cool.

Agreed with you on that. The upper level pattern looks good and there is plenty of cold up north.

Here is the 12Z GFS 500mb chart for Friday night
http://i894.photobucket.com/albums/ac147/rbaker1987/GFS_2016-01-12-12Z_2016-01-16-06Z_500mb_TropTid_zpscnme7ile.png

Here is the 500 mb chart for the morning of 2/11/2010
http://i894.photobucket.com/albums/ac147/rbaker1987/2010-02-11-0700_500mbChart_zpsvixtecpj.gif

Incredibly similar pattern the current storm is shown to be a bit stronger, but also a bit further north. Most features are very similar across NA to that day though everything is a bit more amplified with the current set up.

The Hudson block towards Greenland is often a feature you see with our snowfall events.

[tolakram]

I'm going to be experiencing my first ever Alberta Clipper tomorrow! It will be accompanied with 40 mph wind gust so walking to class should be fun tomorrow.

Come visit us in the Ohio Valley thread. I've lucked out down here in Northern KY, 3 inches on the ground now from two small storms. Not a big fan of the 9F temps though.

[Brent]

The 12z Euro appears to have no snow at all anywhere through 0z Sunday

So the GFS is really all alone atm

[Ntxw]

The 12z Euro appears to have no snow at all anywhere through 0z Sunday

So the GFS is really all alone atm

It has the moisture but warmer temps surface and aloft, 850s 0 to 2C

[stormlover2013]

yep euro is with CMC, man these models crazy crazy