Texas Winter 2015-2016

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TexasStorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2161 Postby TexasStorm » Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:38 am

Average January rainfall is 2.59in. If we continue at the rate we are now, we will be starting the year with a deficit. Currently only 0.89in for 2016.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2162 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:46 am

now just 2 days ago GFS was way off, Euro just yesterday flipped, so I am thinking tomorrow is crucial it looks colder, the models having trouble with the pattern it seems like
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2163 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:53 am

Canadian has the light to moderate precip breaking out on Sat, 850s and up cold so snow up there but surface too warm
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2164 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:02 pm

maybe the trend will start showing more moisture in the next 2 days, also monday could be interesting also!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2165 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:09 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:maybe the trend will start showing more moisture in the next 2 days


Gfs is how we want at 5h slow, very strong and neutral-neg tilt as incoming vorticity can do a partial phase. Canadian is neutral tilt slightly weaker, and euro squashes it positive tilt. Also height falls is important too in bringing some surface cooling which GFS is doing more of than the others.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2166 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:21 pm

Ntxw wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:maybe the trend will start showing more moisture in the next 2 days


Gfs is how we want at 5h slow, very strong and neutral-neg tilt as incoming vorticity can do a partial phase. Canadian is neutral tilt slightly weaker, and euro squashes it positive tilt. Also height falls is important too in bringing some surface cooling which GFS is doing more of than the others.


I understand what you're getting at but how are we going to get enough cold advection for this to stick ? IMO, if we want to see anything on the ground over the next week, it's going to have to come from that 2nd system on Monday (much stronger HP in place across the central plains)...which by the way, the Canadian doesn't even have us getting above freezing all day on Monday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2167 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:25 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:maybe the trend will start showing more moisture in the next 2 days


Gfs is how we want at 5h slow, very strong and neutral-neg tilt as incoming vorticity can do a partial phase. Canadian is neutral tilt slightly weaker, and euro squashes it positive tilt. Also height falls is important too in bringing some surface cooling which GFS is doing more of than the others.


I understand what you're getting at but how are we going to get enough cold advection for this to stick ? IMO, if we want to see anything on the ground over the next week, it's going to have to come from that 2nd system on Monday (much stronger HP in place across the central plains)...which by the way, the Canadian doesn't even have us getting above freezing all day on Monday.


I haven't bought into anything sticking. The potential for snowfall on Saturday is there. It could fail, but the odds are not zero, it is a possibility.

And yes I do see the potential Monday but models are performing poorly with disturbances. Sat is a closer window atm
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2168 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:27 pm

What an Increase in temps I'm going to see! Today's high is 19 degrees (I'm not sure if we will even reach that it's 10 degrees at 12:30 and we still have a snow pack) and tomorrow it's supposed to be 40! Then we have another drop into the teens this weekend.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2169 Postby dhweather » Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:46 pm

Looking at the 12Z GFS I'm sure wxman57 is delighted to see temps nearing 70 ....... in about two weeks.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2170 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:03 pm

dhweather wrote:Looking at the 12Z GFS I'm sure wxman57 is delighted to see temps nearing 70 ....... in about two weeks.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_52.png


70s in winter are always good. 80s are better...

Still looks iffy for any significant snow in the D-FW area, and if it falls it may not hang around long. Not even a hint at winter precip in SE TX through January. We still haven't even seen a freeze across most of Houston.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2171 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:16 pm

Euro sticking to its no show idea. The 5h look between it and the GFS are pretty drastic. Euro sends the lower branch jet all the way to Northern Mexico and squashes it in the gulf with little northern jet interaction vs the GFS partial phase.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2172 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:20 pm

Ntxw wrote:Euro sticking to its no show idea. The 5h look between it and the GFS are pretty drastic. Euro sends the lower branch jet all the way to Northern Mexico and squashes it in the gulf with little northern jet interaction vs the GFS partial phase.


The Euro shifted even farther south in the Gulf this run. Not a good trend if you want snow in north Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2173 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:21 pm

dhweather wrote:Looking at the 12Z GFS I'm sure wxman57 is delighted to see temps nearing 70 ....... in about two weeks.

Image



LMAO...we know this isn't going to happen either. Your odds of winning tonight's Powerball are greater than any model run 2 weeks out being accurate. :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2174 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:23 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Euro sticking to its no show idea. The 5h look between it and the GFS are pretty drastic. Euro sends the lower branch jet all the way to Northern Mexico and squashes it in the gulf with little northern jet interaction vs the GFS partial phase.


The Euro shifted even farther south in the Gulf this run. Not a good trend if you want snow in north Texas.


The differences are drastic. Not talking about a little movement here and there its wild. Youre also talking about noreaster coastal up the eastern seaboard vs a puff of air over Cuba
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2175 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:25 pm

wxman57 wrote:
dhweather wrote:Looking at the 12Z GFS I'm sure wxman57 is delighted to see temps nearing 70 ....... in about two weeks.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_52.png


70s in winter are always good. 80s are better...

Still looks iffy for any significant snow in the D-FW area, and if it falls it may not hang around long. Not even a hint at winter precip in SE TX through January. We still haven't even seen a freeze across most of Houston.
I think we got down to 29 at my house once in December(I don't track them) but since then(if it did happen)we have not had another freeze at my house. We were at 32.7 the day IAH hit freezing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2176 Postby dhweather » Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:25 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:
LMAO...we know this isn't going to happen either. Your odds of winning tonight's Powerball are greater than any model run 2 weeks out being accurate. :ggreen:



:lol: :lol: :lol: Now that's funny!
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2177 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:07 pm

dhweather wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:
LMAO...we know this isn't going to happen either. Your odds of winning tonight's Powerball are greater than any model run 2 weeks out being accurate. :ggreen:



:lol: :lol: :lol: Now that's funny!


HAHA! :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2178 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:18 pm

The Ukmet as far as 72 hrs (limited data) that I can see looks more like the GFS except warmer 2m temps and ends up with an eastern seaboard system, but further east out that way
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2179 Postby AggieSpirit » Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:36 pm

Let's just cancel winter and move on to spring...
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2180 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Jan 13, 2016 3:32 pm

AggieSpirit wrote:Let's just cancel winter and move on to spring...

That's how it feels today.
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