CPAC: PALI - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

Pali is dead

[1900hurricane]

One storm managed to refire near the center. Last gasp or start of (another) epic comeback? I'd lean former.

[supercane]

WTPA41 PHFO 142042
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
1100 AM HST THU JAN 14 2016

IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT PALI
IS EVEN A TROPICAL CYCLONE ANYMORE. THE OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES SHOWED THE CIRCULATION BECOMING ELONGATED...APPEARING MORE
LIKE A NNW-TO-SSE ORIENTED TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE RECENT BLOWUP OF
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHAT MIGHT STILL BE A LOW LEVEL
CENTER CASTS ENOUGH DOUBT TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING PALI AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS
FROM HFO...JTWC...AND SAB AS WELL AS THE UNFLAGGED 30 KT WINDS IN
THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS ARE THE BASIS FOR MAINTAINING A 30 KT
INTENSITY. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE OR ITS
REMNANTS TRACK EVEN CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR IN A MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH BURSTS OF CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO FORM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT TROUGH FOR SOME TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 2.0N 172.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 1.8N 173.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[1900hurricane]

I'm about 95% sure Pali has opened up. The last ASCAT a few hours ago only showed a small and weak 10 kt circulation just below 2*N left.

[supercane]

WTPA41 PHFO 150244
TCDCP1

REMNANTS OF PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
500 PM HST THU JAN 14 2016

DATA FROM THE 2117 UTC ASCAT METOP-B PASS...AS WELL AS FROM LAST
NIGHT/S SCATTEROMETER PASSES AND VARIOUS MICROWAVE OVERPASSES
TODAY...SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH PALI HAS BECOME
HIGHLY DISRUPTED AND ELONGATED...AND IT IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE TO
DEFINITIVELY LOCATE A CLOSED CENTER. THUS...THE SYSTEM IS BEING
DECLARED A REMNANT AT THIS TIME. THE ASCAT PASS DID SHOW A FEW
BELIEVABLE 25 KT WIND BARBS LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
PALI AND SO THAT IS BEING USED FOR THE INTENSITY. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR
ANALYSES INDICATE THAT ABOUT 30 KT OF SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
THE MORE RELIABLE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PRESSURE PERTURBATION
ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF PALI DISSIPATING ON THE EQUATOR...
BUT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT PALI
COULD INSTEAD HEAD WESTWARD AND REGENERATE ONCE IT GETS AWAY FROM
THE SHEAR IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY...BUT THE
DISTURBED AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY ON PALI UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 1.7N 173.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[stormwise]

With a cross equatorial flow point along the trough and strong NE trades GFS has the remnant vorticity as a very weak [closed lpa] stradling back across the equator .