Next wave to exit
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
chadtm80
Next wave to exit
Looks pretty ragid.. http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/arad/f ... TROPIR.GIF and it aint seen nothing yet.. hehehe
0 likes
You know, I was just about to post a comment about that wave. That's some pretty intense convection but it will probably diminish as it moves into the Atlantic. Climatalogically speaking, if it were late August or even early September I'd be more concerned about it. However, it is still prudent to keep an eye on it.
0 likes
Threats to the U.S. from Cape Verde storms after 9/20 have been very few and far between over the last 152 years. Going back to 1851, records show that only three storms first became at least a T.D. after 9/20 east of 50W and south of 20N and subsequently hit the U.S. with the latest cyclone formation being 9/25:
1) Lili of 2002 which formed on 9/21 and hit LA
2) Inez of 1966 which formed on 9/21 and hit FL
3) Storm #9 of 1893 which formed on 9/25 and hit SC, the latest in the season C.V. storm on record to later hit the U.S.
So, based on 152 years of climo, once 9/25 is reached the chances are next to zero for any additional storms that first form east of 50W and south of 20N to later hit the U.S. That leaves only 4 days for a TD to form out there and subsequently hit the U.S.
Based on the above regarding potential U.S. threats, it is almost time to start focusing much more on T.C.'s that form WEST of 50W and especially the western Caribbean after 10/1.
1) Lili of 2002 which formed on 9/21 and hit LA
2) Inez of 1966 which formed on 9/21 and hit FL
3) Storm #9 of 1893 which formed on 9/25 and hit SC, the latest in the season C.V. storm on record to later hit the U.S.
So, based on 152 years of climo, once 9/25 is reached the chances are next to zero for any additional storms that first form east of 50W and south of 20N to later hit the U.S. That leaves only 4 days for a TD to form out there and subsequently hit the U.S.
Based on the above regarding potential U.S. threats, it is almost time to start focusing much more on T.C.'s that form WEST of 50W and especially the western Caribbean after 10/1.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
AussieMark
- Category 5
- Posts: 5858
- Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
- Location: near Sydney, Australia
It also depends what role the Dry air has but I would say that if it were to develop I would say the southern portion is the more likely.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg
0 likes
-
ColdFront77
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145609
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Time is running out for that area to develop systems as climo turns more to the GOM,caribbean and western atlantic but never say never as every season is different and the CV season lasts a little longer in some seasons than others so let's see what happens.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
WeatherEmperor
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4806
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
- Location: South Florida