SPAC: VICTOR - Post-Tropical

[jaguarjace]

98P INVEST 160114 0600 12.5S 164.1W SHEM 25 1004


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 140724 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 164.4W
AT 140600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR IMAGERY. DEPRESSION
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS TRYING TO
WRAP AROUND LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.25 WRAP
YEILDS DT=2.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING
T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTHWARD
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 14.3S 164.6W MOV SSW AT 04KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 14.9S 164.7W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 15.5S 164.9W MOV SSW AT 05KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 16.2S 164.9W MOV SSE AT 05KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD08F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
141400 UTC.

[1900hurricane]

It took quite a while for this to consolidate, but it appears to finally be doing so.

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 142020 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 164.6W
AT 141800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR IMAGERY. DEPRESSION
SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS TRYING TO
WRAP AROUND LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED PAST 12 HOURS. OUTFLOW
GOOD. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.55 WRAP YEILDS DT=2.5, MET AND PT AGREE.
FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 14.4S 165.0W MOV SW AT 03KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 14.8S 165.3W MOV SW AT 03KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 15.2S 165.5W MOV SSW AT 03KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 15.9S 165.5W MOV SSW AT 03KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD08F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
150200 UTC.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTPS51 PGTW 142100
WARNING ATCG MIL 07P SWP 160114194300
2016011418 07P SEVEN 001 01 215 05 SATL 050
T000 140S 1652W 035
T012 145S 1657W 045 R034 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 149S 1662W 065 R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 152S 1666W 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 159S 1666W 090 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 110 SE QD 095 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 184S 1661W 100 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 120 SE QD 105 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 199S 1657W 090
T120 210S 1654W 075
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
<rest omitted to comments>
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 165.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPENING WITHIN THE CURVED BANDING THAT IS
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
141815Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE BROAD LLCC IN THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON
THE IMPROVED OVERALL STRUCTURE AND IS SUPPORTED BY A T2.5 (35 KNOT)
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM NFFN AND PGTW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
SLOWLY POLEWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THIS STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTERWARDS, THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE DUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASING SSTS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU 72. IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, VWS WILL INCREASE AS SSTS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF,
BEGINNING A WEAKENING TREND. LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
BIFURCATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. NAVGEM AND HWRF SHOW THE
SYSTEM ROUNDING THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND ACCELERATING
SOUTHEASTWARD. GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICT A STR BUILDING
IN SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE CREATING QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. DUE TO
LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IN POOR AGREEMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 141021ZJAN16 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
141030).//

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 150207 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 165.0W
AT 150000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR IMAGERY. DEPRESSION
MOVING SOUTH AT 5 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS TRYING TO
WRAP AROUND LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN PAST 6
HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.55 WRAP YEILDS DT=2.5, MET
AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 15.6S 165.6W MOV SW AT 04KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 16.0S 166.1W MOV SW AT 03KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 16.4S 166.4W MOV SW AT 03KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 17.3S 166.3W MOV SSW AT 03KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD08F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
150800 UTC.

[stormwise]

POLYNESIAN ISLANDS groups should watch this closely.

[jaguarjace]

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone VICTOR

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 1 issued 0707 UTC Friday 15 January 2016



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 150730 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.7S 166.3W AT 150600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 08 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,

WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD.
SST AROUND 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.65 WRAP YEILDS DT=3.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 15.2S 167.0W MOV SW AT 04KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 15.4S 167.6W MOV WSW AT 04KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 16.0S 167.7W MOV SW AT 03KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 17.2S 167.4W MOV SS AT 06KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON VICTOR WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 151400 UTC.

[supercane]

WTPS51 PGTW 150900
WARNING ATCG MIL 07P SWP 160115075453
2016011506 07P VICTOR 002 01 255 07 SATL 060
T000 145S 1662W 040 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 147S 1665W 055 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 152S 1667W 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 157S 1668W 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 169S 1667W 090 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 195S 1659W 085 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 210S 1651W 075
T120 213S 1647W 065
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 002
<rest omitted to comments>
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 166.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM EAST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 150517Z CORIOLIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING NEARLY WRAPPING COMPLETELY
AROUND THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE BROAD LLCC IN
THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED OVERALL STRUCTURE AND IS
SUPPORTED BY A T2.5 (35 KNOT) DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW
AND KNES AND A T3.0 (45 KNOT) DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PHFO. THE SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE TOP OF THE LLCC, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR 30 DEG CELSIUS AND (SSTS) AND VERY HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
SLOWLY POLEWARD, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU 72. IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, TC 07P WILL BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS AND OHC. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TRACK
THROUGH TAU 36 AND THEN A PRONOUNCED SPREADING BEYOND TAU 36. NAVGEM
AND GFDN TAKE A WEAKER SYSTEM FURTHER WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING
SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A STR BUILDING IN SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE
CREATING QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT BY TAU 120. AVNO AND HWRF
INDICATE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IN THE INITIAL TAUS BEFORE RAPIDLY
MOVING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST AFTER TAU 72. DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE DYNAMIC MODEL FIELDS, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 151321 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.4S 166.2W AT 151200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,

WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.95 WRAP YEILDS DT=3.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 14.6S 166.6W MOV WSW AT 02KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 15.1S 166.9W MOV SW AT 02KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 15.9S 166.9W MOV S AT 04KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 17.1S 166.7W MOV S AT 06KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON VICTOR WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 152000 UTC.

[supercane]

Big jump upwards in JTWC intensity of Victor, to 65kt at 18Z from 40kt at 6Z for a 25kt increase in 12hr. Further strengthening anticipated with peak of 115kt in 36hr.

WTPS51 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 07P SWP 160115193231
2016011518 07P VICTOR 003 01 270 02 SATL 030
T000 146S 1663W 065 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 105 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 148S 1666W 090 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 115 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 151S 1668W 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 115 SE QD 110 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 157S 1670W 115 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 115 SE QD 110 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 167S 1670W 115 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 194S 1667W 110 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 206S 1668W 090
T120 212S 1673W 085
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 003
<rest omitted>
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 166.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 256 NM EAST OF
PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONSOLIDATION OF
BANDING, DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN ALL QUADRANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC). DVORAK ESTIMATES AND RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA
INDICATE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ARE FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING TC 07P THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT (OHC) VALUES WILL REMAIN POSITIVE NORTH OF 20 DEGREES SOUTH
AND WILL ENHANCEMENT THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL POINT
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE LLCC
AND IS CREATING AMPLE OUTFLOW FOR THE SYSTEM. THIS DIVERGENT PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE 96 TO 120 TIMEFRAME. AS SSTS AND OHC DECREASE
AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WEAKENS, BEYOND TAU 96, THE OVERALL INTENSITY
WILL DECREASE, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL
CYCLONE. TC 07P HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, CAUSING A SOUTHWARD TURN WITH MARGINAL
ACCELERATION THROUGH TAU 72. A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST IS EXPECTED AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF
TC VICTOR. MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
LEADING TO IMPROVED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE TRACK HAS
BEEN KEPT SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CONSENSUS AS IT HAS BEEN SLOWLY
SHIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND
162100Z.//
0716011318 121S1651W 25
0716011400 126S1649W 25
0716011406 131S1648W 25
0716011412 136S1649W 30
0716011418 140S1652W 35
0716011500 143S1655W 40
0716011506 145S1658W 40
0716011512 146S1661W 55
0716011518 146S1663W 65

[Exalt]

It took quite a while for this to consolidate, but it appears to finally be doing so.

Those are some cold cloud tops if I've ever seen them. Seems like it'll be a strong one.

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 160156 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 980HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.8S 165.9W AT 160000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,

WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS TIGHTLY WRAPPING
AROUND LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH
RAGGED EYE DISCERNIBLE. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE
IN MG SURR WITHOUT EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDS DT=4.5. MET=4.0, PAT=4.0. DT
NOT CLEAR CUT, FT BASED ON MET. THUS YIELDING T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 15.3S 166.1W MOV SSW AT 02KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 16.1S 166.1W MOV S AT 03KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 17.2S 166.0W MOV S AT 04KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 18.6S 165.8W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON VICTOR WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 160800 UTC.

[mrbagyo]

ugly looking raged eye for now, lets see if it can contract that into a more well defined eye...

[euro6208]

Up to 75 knots and look at that bend long range...


REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 166.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM EAST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH THE
FORMATION OF A RAGGED EYE FEATURE BECOMING CLOUD-FILLED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A 160556Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD
MICROWAVE EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS). THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
EXTREMELY FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS AND HIGH OHC VALUES WILL ALSO AID IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM DURING THIS PERIOD. TC 07P IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWARD BY
A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 48 CAUSING TC VICTOR TO RECURVE TO
THE WEST AROUND TAU 72 AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FROM TAU 72
THROUGH 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, WITH SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE SOLUTIONS
IN LATER TAUS. THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SUPPORTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 161345 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.1S 166.5W AT 161200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 03 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,

WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED IN THE PAST 6 TO 9 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS TIGHTLY WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A
LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE
PATTERN, LLCC EMBEDDED IN MG WITH A BANDING FEATURE YIELDS DT=4.5.
MET=4.5, PT=4.5. FT BASED ON MET. THUS YIELDING T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 15.9S 166.6W MOV S AT 04KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 17.0S 166.4W MOV S AT 06KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 18.4S 166.4W MOV S AT 07KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 19.7S 166.2W MOV S AT 07KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON VICTOR WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 162000 UTC.

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 161957 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.3S 166.8W AT 161800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 02 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,

WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED IN THE PAST 9 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS TIGHTLY WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A
LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 250HPA. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN, LLCC EMBEDDED IN MG WITH A
BANDING FEATURE YIELDS DT=4.5. MET=4.5, PT=4.5. FT BASED ON MET. THUS
YIELDING T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 16.1S 166.8W MOV S AT 04KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 17.1S 166.7W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 18.1S 166.5W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 19.0S 166.3W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON VICTOR WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 170200 UTC.

[supercane]

WTPS51 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 07P SWP 160116192508
2016011618 07P VICTOR 005 01 270 03 SATL 060
T000 150S 1667W 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 161S 1669W 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 170S 1668W 100 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 178S 1667W 110 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 190S 1665W 105 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 200S 1668W 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 202S 1678W 085
T120 198S 1692W 080
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 005
<rest omitted>
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 166.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM EAST OF
PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 07P HAS
BEEN UNDERGOING A PERIOD OF CYCLIC DEVELOPMENT AND WEAKENING WITH A
WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE OBSERVED ONLY TO DEGENERATE AND BECOME
CLOUD-FILLED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE T4.0/4.5 DVORAKS FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH AN
OLDER RSCAT PASS SHOWING A DIRECT PASS OVER THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM,
HELPING TO DEFINE THE WIND FIELD. A RECENT 1346Z SSMIS 37H MICROWAVE
IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS THE EYE REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS OBSCURED THE EYE IN THE EIR IMAGERY.
SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) IN THE 27 TO 28 CELSIUS RANGE, AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT AVAILABLE TO THE NORTH OF 20 DEGREES SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE EAST
OF TC 07P IS SUPPORTING A VERY FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW PATTERN,
WITH ONLY LOW TO MEDIUM LEVELS (10 TO 15 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION, LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF TC 07P, TO BUILD SOUTHWARD STEERING TC VICTOR TO THE
SOUTH IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC 07P BEYOND TAU 48, TURNING THE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LESS FAVORABLE SSTS AROUND 20
DEGREES SOUTH WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE INTENSITY, BUT
OVERALL THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE STEERING
RIDGE DEVELOPMENT AND THE CURRENT QUASI-STATIONARY POSITIONING OF TC
07P, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN LOWERED TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.//

[jaguarjace]

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone VICTOR

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 81 issued 2003 UTC Saturday 16 January 2016

[stormwise]

Maybe a close call for NIUE Island, if the the cyclone recurves west as some of the better models are suggesting.http://i64.tinypic.com/33uwsb7.png




http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... mm=0&hur=0

[supercane]

WTPS51 PGTW 170900
WARNING ATCG MIL 07P SWP 160117083416
2016011706 07P VICTOR 006 01 180 07 SATL 040
T000 162S 1664W 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 175S 1662W 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 186S 1661W 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 198S 1661W 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 206S 1665W 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 214S 1677W 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 218S 1691W 070
T120 217S 1706W 065
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 006
<rest omitted to comments>
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 166.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 170627Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS WITHIN THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC VICTOR WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG AN AREA OF WARM SST (27 TO 28
DEGREE CELSIUS) OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD AID IN THE
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TRACKING OVER COOLER WATER LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING. TC
07P IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWARD BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU
36 CAUSING TC VICTOR TO TRACK WESTWARD AROUND TAU 48. FROM TAU 72
THROUGH 120, A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW IN
FORWARD SPEED. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL FORECAST TRACK, THEREFORE THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A17 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 171347 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.8S 166.5W AT 171200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 04 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN EAST
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN WEST
SEMICIRCLE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,

WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
AROUND LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION
AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 250HPA.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.0 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.5, MET=4.0 AND PT=4.0.
FT BASED ON MET. THUS YIELDING T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 18.0S 166.4W MOV S AT 06KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 19.2S 166.3W MOV S AT 06KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC 20.0S 166.4W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC 20.9S 166.6W MOV SSW AT 04KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON VICTOR WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 172000 UTC.

[1900hurricane]

That's quite a large diameter eyewall.

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A18 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 171940 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 166.4W AT 171800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 06 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN EAST
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN WEST
SEMICIRCLE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,

WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
AROUND LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION
AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 250HPA.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.0 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.5, MET=4.0 AND PT=4.0.
FT BASED ON MET. THUS YIELDING T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 18.6S 166.4W MOV S AT 06KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 19.6S 166.5W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC 20.3S 166.8W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 191800 UTC 20.8S 167.4W MOV SSW AT 04KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TC VICTOR WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 180200 UTC.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTPS51 PGTW 172100
WARNING ATCG MIL 07P SWP 160117201613
2016011718 07P VICTOR 007 01 180 06 SATL 060
T000 174S 1664W 065 R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 186S 1664W 075 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 110 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 185 SE QD 110 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 199S 1665W 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 105 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 208S 1669W 075 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 165 SE QD 105 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 211S 1677W 070 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 135 SE QD 140 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 214S 1695W 065 R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 085 NW QD
T096 216S 1717W 060
T120 228S 1740W 055
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 007
<rest omitted>
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 166.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTHEAST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING FEATURES HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN THE
DEEP LAYERED BANDING CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE OF TC 07P. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 65 KNOTS TO REFLECT THIS LOSS OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN THE BANDING FEATURES. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN
STEADY AT T4.0 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND SUPPORT THIS RECENT DROP IN
INTENSITY. TC 07P IS TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A
DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION. MODEL GUIDANCE INDI-
CATES THE STR WILL BUILD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC VICTOR IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SHIFTING THE TRACK TO THE WEST THROUGH TAU 96.
AFTER WHICH, TC 07P WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THIS STR EXTENSION. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS, SUGGESTING A MORE STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) DECREASING BELOW 27 DEGREES
CELSIUS POLEWARD OF 20 DEGREES SOUTH AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
SLOWLY INCREASES AFTER TAU 24. THE FORECASTS PEAK INTENSITY OF 80
KNOTS AT TAU 24 IS BASED ON THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT PERSISTING WITH
THE AN OBSERVED INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO
A MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. EVENTUALLY THE DECREASING SSTS AND THE
STEADY INCREASE IN VWS WILL CREATE A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK, THEREFORE THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.//