Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA REMAINS OVER OR NEAR PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND DRIFTS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AFTER THAT.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS REMAIN PARCHED
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN
HUMIDITIES REACH 25 PERCENT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BE
REPLACED BY A SLIGHTLY STRONGER HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
AND CAUSE IT TO SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BY MID AFTERNOON A FEW SPRINKLES HAD DEVELOPED OVER
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AROUND JAYUYA...OROCOVIS AND
VILLALBA...OTHERWISE SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. A BAND OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN IN THE SATELLITE PICTURE ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO BY 8
AM AST...13/12Z WEDNESDAY. WE ARE CARRYING NO MORE THAN SCATTERED
SHOWER FOR THERE AND AMOUNTS...WHERE RAIN FALLS...WILL BE SLIGHT.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SET TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVES
EASTWARD...AREAS OF MOISTURE...WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AND BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY TO AREAS OF EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN
CAN BE SEEN UNTIL MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A SHIFT
IN THE WIND DIRECTION FROM EAST NORTHEAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WITH
AN ATTENDANT SHIFT IN AREAS DAMPENED BY SHALLOW PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ISO/SCT PASSING SHOWERS COULD REACH THE
LEEWARD/USVI AND EASTERN PR TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT THE SFC...BCMG E-NE AFTER 13Z AT 10-12 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REACHED ALMOST 14 FEET OVERNIGHT AT 41043 AND JUST
OVER 10 FEET AT 41053. THIS PRODUCED A MAXIMUM WAVE AT SAN JUAN OF
15 FEET. VERY MINOR INTRUSIONS OF SEA WATER WERE NOTED IN SOME
PLACES ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF SAN JUAN. MODELS AND BUOYS NOW
INDICATE THAT WAVES AND SWELL ARE DIMINISHING AND WILL DO SO
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS AT THIS TIME SEAS
MAY REMAIN AT OR VERY NEAR 7 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE OUTER
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE MOST SEAS WILL
HAVE DIMINISHED BY THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 84 / 40 40 40 20
STT 73 83 72 84 / 20 10 40 30

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
641 AM AST WED JAN 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THRU AT LEAST NEXT WEEK. WEAK SFC HIGH NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WILL BE REPLACED BY A STRONGER ONE BY LATE THURSDAY AS IT
MOVES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL
MOVE AND REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE
NOTED OVER BOTH ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS
WERE DETECTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PR. FOR
TODAY...FCST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING THAT A
DRIER AIR MASS AND LOW PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.00 INCH WILL MOVE BY
NOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW. HOWEVER...A FEW CLOUDS AND BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR THIS AFTERNOON...DUE
TO THE AVAILABLE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS AT SFC AND ALOFT HOLDS THRU THE FCST
PERIOD...SIMILAR FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY AND
NIGHT AT LEAST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS NEW SFC HIGH ESTABLISHES
NORTH OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL TURN MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE END
OF THE WEEK...AND AFTERNOON SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE INTERIOR AND NW QUADRANT OF PR.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS UNTIL 13/14Z...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO
ABOUT 10KT FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. BRIEF MOMENTS
WITH VCSH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT TJPS AND TJMZ AS SHRA DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTH AND WEST PR.


&&

.MARINE...A SECOND PULSE OF THE LONG PERIOD NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL
IS FORECAST TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY NOON TODAY. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF PR AND
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE USVI AND CULEBRA. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING FOR
ALL NORTH AND EAST FACING BEACHES OF PR/CULEBRA AND THE USVI.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE (CFWSJU) AND
SURF ZONE FORECAST(SRFSJU) FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE SWELL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THRU THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...LIFE THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 73 / 20 10 20 10
STT 84 72 83 72 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST WED JAN 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WESTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. MID LEVELS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BE
REPLACED BY A SLIGHTLY STRONGER HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL LEAVE A RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT IS
NOT LIKELY TO PASS THROUGH. SHALLOW PATCHY MOISTURE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW MOSTLY THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...BUT ONLY MINOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RESULT DUE TO
DESCENDING AIR AROUND THE HIGHS AND LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE ABOVE
THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY. A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED
OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON WHILE NEARLY ALL THE
OTHER ACTIVITY...WHICH WAS MOSTLY OVER LOCAL WATERS...DISSIPATED.
A DRIER PATTERN IS EVOLVING IN MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE. CURRENTLY
THERE IS A LARGE PATCH OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY TO
THE WINDWARD SLOPES IN THE EARLY MORNINGS AND THE OPPOSITE CORNER
OF PUERTO RICO IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOONS EACH DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SEEN IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THESE DAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE EVEN LESS
AFTER THE WEEKEND WHEN EVEN SOME OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
ERODES. TRADE WIND FLOW IS MOSTLY JUST NORTH OF EAST AND WILL VEER
A LITTLE TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND RETURN
LATER NEXT WEEK TO JUST NORTH OF EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT THE
SFC...BCMG E-NE AFTER 14/13Z AT 10-14 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEASTERLY SWELL IS SLOWLY SUBSIDING AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE UNTIL MONDAY. EXPECT THE LAST OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES TO COME DOWN FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC
WATERS. THE NEXT SWELL EVENT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM A
STRONG LOW MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEYOND TONIGHT...BUT
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE TAKEN DOWN AT 8 AM AST OR
SOONER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 84 / 10 20 10 10
STT 72 83 72 83 / 10 20 20 20

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
428 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EMERGING FROM NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL INDUCE A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION AT IT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY FEW LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.
NOT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.
THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE
SPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NOT
CHANGES TO THE PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN ARE EXPECTED IN THE FORESEE
FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SFC UNTIL 14/13Z...BCMG E-NE
AT 10-12 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...RECENT BUOY DATA FROM THE LOCAL NETWORK SUGGEST SEAS UP
TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO. HOWEVER...A TREND TO DIMINISH WAS OBSERVED ACROSS BOTH SJ
AND RINCON BUOY. HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTH FACING BEACHES OF THE U.S.V.I. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION GO TO THE MARINE AND COASTAL PRODUCTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 72 / 10 10 10 10
STT 85 73 84 73 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL INDUCE A
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TRADES
WILL TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED TODAY ACROSS
ALL LOCAL ISLANDS. A FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...NO RAINFALL WAS DETECTED
OVER LAND AREAS AS OF 2 PM AST. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINTAINING DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE CAP UNTIL AT
LEAST NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY A FEW LIGHT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PR IN THE AFTERNOON. AS RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD OVER THE CARIBBEAN...POLAR TROFS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLD SHRA DVLPG BTWN 19-22Z WRN INTERIOR PR WITH LCL MTN
OBSCURATIONS UNTIL ARND 15/02Z. EASTERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KT...HIGHEST
ON THE COAST WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES. WINDS ALF BCM
WESTERLY ABV FL230. MAX WIND UP TO 50 KT AT FL400-450.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BETWEEN 5-7 FEET ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN
EFFECT FOR THOSE WATERS. NE SWELL IS SLOWLY SUBSIDING BUT STILL
WILL CREATE DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE OF ALL LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 72 86 / 10 10 10 20
STT 73 84 73 83 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE INDUCE A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA BY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TRADES WILL TRANSPORT SMALL PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH FEW OF THEM
AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCE ONLY A TRACE OF
PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS MORNING. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH A
DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS ONLY A LIGHT TRADE PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NO
CHANGES TO THE PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN ARE EXPECTED IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. PLEASANT WINTER SEASON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS...WITH MINIMUM COASTAL
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE MID TO LOW 70S AND AROUND LOW 60S AND MID
50S IN MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY AREAS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SFC UNTIL 15/13Z...BCMG E-NE
AT AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY EXPIRED LAST EVENING AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY. HOWEVER THE
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE HIGH AT LEAST UNTIL TONIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 87 75 / 10 10 20 20
STT 83 73 83 74 / 10 20 20 30

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
218 PM AST FRI JAN 15 2016

SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING TRADES
MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE AREA ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE
TRADES WILL TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED TODAY ACROSS
ALL ISLANDS. A FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH A FEW REACHING COASTAL
AREAS BUT RAINFALL WAS MINIMAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS FORMED ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGES
OF PR AND SOME AREAS RECEIVED ISOLATED BUT MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS
AT LEAST BEFORE 2 PM AST.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MAINTAINING DRY AIR ALOFT AND
SUBSIDENCE CAP UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY A LIGHT TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON. AS RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE CARIBBEAN...POLAR TROFS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.


.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS EXCEPT ARND TNCM AND TKPK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN ISOLD SHRA.
WINDS EAST AT 10-15 KTS TIL 15/22Z AND AFT 16/14Z WITH SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES AND OCNL GUSTS. WINDS LESS THAN 6 KT IN LAND BREEZES ARND
PR AND EAST 6 TO 10 KT USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. WINDS WESTERLY ARND
40 KT BTWN FL400-500. WINDS VEERING FROM WEST TO NORTHERLY BTWN
FL150-180 BTWN 16/12 AND 17/00Z.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS UP TO 6
FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND LOCAL
PASSAGES. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH
SHORE OF PR...CULEBRA AND BEACHES OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE USVI. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 87 73 86 / 20 20 20 20
STT 77 84 77 83 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
410 AM AST SAT JAN 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS....A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING TRADES
MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
AFFECTED THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND LOCAL
ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THESE SAME AREAS
THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MAINTAINING DRY AIR ALOFT AND
SUBSIDENCE CAP UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

EXPECT LIGHT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON. AS RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD OVER THE CARIBBEAN...POLAR TROFS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH
OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LIGHT WINDS UNTIL 16/12Z...THEN EAST WINDS AT AROUND 10-15KT
EXPECTED. BKN CLD LAYER AT AROUND FL050-FL060 UNTIL AROUND 16/22Z
ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS. -SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MAY
CAUSE BRIEF VCSH. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS UP TO 6
FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND LOCAL
PASSAGES. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH
SHORE OF PR...CULEBRA AND BEACHES OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE USVI. EAST WINDS WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST COMPONENT WILL
CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 73 86 74 / 20 20 20 10
STT 84 77 83 73 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST SAT JAN 16 2016

SYNOPSIS... MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING TRADES
MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS PERSISTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND
AREAS WITH LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION AS PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECT THE REGION.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE
IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERAL DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...INDUCING BRIEF
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. NOT CHANGES EXPECTED
TO THE PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FROM THE EAST
TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15KT. BKN CLD LAYER AT AROUND FL050-
FL060 UNTIL AROUND 16/22Z ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS. -SHRA ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA MAY CAUSE BRIEF VCSH. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS MOMENT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 86 74 86 / 20 20 10 20
STT 77 83 73 84 / 30 30 30 30

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 AM AST SUN JAN 17 2016


.SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT FARTHER EAST INTO INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN LIGHT OT MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORCEAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS
MOVE ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO
THE LOCAL ISLAND OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
EXPERIENCED BRIEFED PASSING SHOWERS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS.

CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS ANOTHER BATCH OF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ANEGADA PACKAGE THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

LIMITED SHOWERS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS A HIGH PRESSURE IN COMBINATION WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...AREAS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME...INDUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
NOT CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... TEMPO BKN CLD LAYERS AROUND FL030-060
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY OF THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 17/14Z AND 17/21Z
...SPREADING FROM THE LEEWARD TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING INTO THE
USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS BY MID MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
UNTIL 17/13Z...BECOMING EASTERLY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT
AROUND 10KT THEREAFTER UNTIL 17/23Z. VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS
ALL LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 5 FEET OR LESS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL AN OVERALL HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NORTH
FACING BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE ISLAND OF SAINT
CROIX.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 20 20 20 30
STT 83 76 84 74 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
240 PM AST SUN JAN 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL RREGION THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONGER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE EASTERN U.S. BY MID
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AT
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDED IN THE TRADE
WIND FLOW AFFECTED THE LOCAL REGION TODAY. MOST OF THE AREA
REMAINED CLOUDY WITH NO RAINFALL OBSERVED. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONGER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE EASTERN U.S. BY MID WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. AREAS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME...INDUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
NOT CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...TEMPO BKN CLD LAYERS
AROUND FL030-060 ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME OF THE TERMINALS BETWEEN
TONIGHT. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 32K FEET...BECOMING
WESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT. VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 75 86 / 20 20 30 30
STT 76 84 74 84 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST MON JAN 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL ISLANDS
MOST OF THE WEEK. A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME INTERRUPTIONS AS BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS PASS BY. A SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
WHEN MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SHEAR LINE CROSSING THE ISLANDS. THEN...
DRIER AIR WILL RETURN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS MOST OF THE
WEEK. A BRIEF SURGE OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHEARLINE CROSSES THE ISLANDS. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF PR AND USVI. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY
BY DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES. THEREFORE...
SHALLOW CONVECTION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER SOME AREAS OF WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON. OVERALL...MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BETWEEN 18-23Z...VCSH POSSIBLE AT
JPS/JMZ DUE TO -SHRA DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN
PR. WINDS FM THE EAST AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFTER 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-5 FT AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OF AROUND 10
KT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES ON THURSDAY...BUILDING THE SEAS TO 5-6 FT. SEAS WILL RETURN
TO 3-5 FT DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER NORTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 73 85 76 / 20 20 30 40
STT 85 78 84 79 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
227 PM AST MON JAN 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS PRODUCING A GENERALLY
DRY AND STABLE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SLIGHTLY
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT
DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED
SMALL AREAS OF LOW LEVEL SHALLOW CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER ONLY FEW
LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. NOT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND
AREAS. A PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EXIT
THE EASTERN U.S. BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A WEEK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY
INCREASING THE CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...NOT SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES CLOSE TO THE
REGION BY THE END OF WORK WEEK...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE. THIS IN TURN...WILL INCREASE THE AREAS OF SHALLOW
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...INDUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS. NOT CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN IN
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY VCSH POSSIBLE. -SHRA
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SHEAR LINE
APPROACHES THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST
AT 10-15 KNOTS DECREASING OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OF AROUND
10 KT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES ON THURSDAY...BUILDING THE SEAS TO 4-6 FT. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 76 86 / 20 30 40 40
STT 78 84 79 84 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST TUE JAN 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE LOCAL ISLANDS MOST OF THE WEEK. A GENERALLY DRY AND
STABLE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN AREA OF
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE INDUCES THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THEN...DRIER AND
SUBSIDENCE AIR MASS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THE SECOND
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE ISLANDS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TODAY. LIGHT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS VERY
STRONG RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS FOOTHOLD OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
REGION. A QUIET PATTERN IS FORECAST THE REST OF THE WEEK. VERY DRY
AND SUBSIDENCE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL AT MID LEVELS...LIMITING THE
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN
PRIMARILY BY DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES. WITH
LIGHT WINDS DOMINATING...SHALLOW CONVECTION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
AS SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ISLAND WILL
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
PR EACH AFTERNOON. OVERALL... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER...EXPECT SCT-BKN CLD LYRS FL025...FL050 AND
FEW CU TOPS FL100...DUE TO SHRA EN ROUTE FM NRN LEEWARD TERMINALS
INTO EASTERN PR. AFTERNOON SHRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MTN
RANGES OF PR...IMPACTING MAINLY JPS/JMZ AND THE VCTY OF JSJ. LOW
LEVEL WINDS FROM THE E-ENE AT 5-15 KNOTS...WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFT 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 2-4 FT AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OF AROUND 10
KT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUILDING THE SEAS TO 4-6 FT.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER NORTHERLY SWELL
IS FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 30 30 20 20
STT 84 74 84 74 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
213 PM AST TUE JAN 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...INDUCING A
GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AN AREA OF TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON DEPICTED SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL SHALLOW CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE IN THE TRADE WIND...MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PART OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

A PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SHALLOW PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
TIME TO TIME DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING AND SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOONS. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE CHANGES OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS PERIOD. HOWEVER...EXPECT
VICINITY SHRA ACROSS TJSJ...TJPS...TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL AT LEAST
19/23Z AS A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE TRADES MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAINS FROM THE EAST TO EAST
NORTHEAST AT 5-15 KNOTS...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER
19/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET AND
WINDS UP TO 1O KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
TONIGHT. A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUILDING
THE SEAS TO 4-6 FT...SUBSIDING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ANOTHER NORTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 75 87 / 30 20 20 20
STT 74 84 74 84 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST WED JAN 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD AT LEAST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORT WAVE TROF
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE
FCST AREA BY MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES...WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE WEEKEND AS SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW PUSHED A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS
OF NORTHERN PR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
WERE REPORTED WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS...PASSING SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF PR. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED
TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

DRIER AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO
INDUCE AFTERNOON SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER THE MTN RANGES AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR. ELSEWHERE...PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT MAINLY ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERS. AS NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSE TO THE
AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCT-BKN CLDS LAYERS AT FL022 AND FL050 WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THRU AT LEAST 20/12Z.
THEN...FEW-SCT CLDS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE MORNING. SOME SHRA
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE W INTERIOR AND SW OF PR BTW 20/17Z-22Z...
HOWEVER ONLY VCSH EXPECTED AT TJPS AND TJMZ. WNDS FM E AT 10 KT
BELOW FL100.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT AS A LONG PERIOD
NORTHERLY SWELL BETWEEN 4 TO 6 FEET REACH THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE
WATERS. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
TONIGHT. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CREATE LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE OF THE
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 20 10 20 20
STT 84 73 84 73 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
316 PM AST WED JAN 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD AT LEAST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORT WAVE TROF
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE
FCST AREA BY MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES...WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE WEEKEND AS SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER A PERSISTENT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH CONTINUED TO PRODUCE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUED ACROSS THE REGION. THESE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY.

FOR THIS WEEKEND...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY
CLOSE OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THE BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION...AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATED OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME SHRA ARE EXPECTED OVER THE W INTERIOR AND
SW OF PR BTW 20/18Z-22Z...BUT EXPECT JUST VCSH AT TJPS/TJMZ AND
SCT-BKN CEILINGS BTWN FL022 AND FL050. A FEW-SCT CLDS WITH
PASSING -SHRA/SHRA WILL MOVE FROM TIME TO TIME IN ROUTE BETWEEN
THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AFTER 20/23Z. SURFACE WNDS FM ENE
AT 6 TO 12 KT...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND GUSTY IN/NEAR SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN SEAS
UP TO 6 FEET AT BUOY 41043...AND NEAR 5 FEET IN 41053 IN SAN
JUAN. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS A
NORTHWEST SWELLS INVADE THE LOCAL REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE ISSUED LATER DUE TO
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT. REFER TO LATEST COASTAL HAZARDOUS MESSAGE
PRODUCTS FOR LATEST INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 75 88 / 10 20 20 20
STT 73 84 73 83 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
553 AM AST THU JAN 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD THRU AT LEAST SATURDAY. UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE
FCST AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY THRU MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES...WINDS
SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW EXITS
THE U.S. ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY
OVER THE WATERS...WITH A FEW OF THEM MOVING OVER THE USVI AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF EASTERN PR INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.
HOWEVER...ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS WERE DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS AS OF 5
AM AST. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY OVER THE WATERS...WITH ONLY A FEW REACHING COASTAL AREAS OF
THE USVI/EASTERN PR. IN THE AFTERNOON...BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR. PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

AS RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS THRU THE WEEKEND AND WINDS SHIFT MORE FROM
THE SOUTH...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FILL ACROSS THE AREA
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS SHOULD FOCUS MORE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THEN...AS UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT
REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MORE CLOUDINESS AND
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
LOCAL ISLANDS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST OF PR BTW
21/17Z-22Z...HOWEVER ONLY VCSH EXPECTED AT TJMZ. WINDS FM E AT 10-15
KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY. LOCAL
BUOYS ARE INDICATING THE SWELL AT 4-6 FEET AROUND 11-12 SECONDS.
THIS WILL CREATE ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH FACING BEACHES OF PR AND THE NORTHERN
USVI. ALSO...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY BETWEEN 6 TO 8
FEET AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE CFWSJU FOR MORE INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 86 73 / 20 10 10 10
STT 83 73 83 74 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST THU JAN 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE
WILL COLLAPSE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP POLAR TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. PASSING SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO EARLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS WERE ALSO OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN
PR. WINDS OVER LAND WERE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY... AS A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE EACH DAY FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

AS THE RIDGE COLLAPSES EARLY NEXT WEEK...ASSOCIATED CAP INVERSION
WILL RELAX AND AN INVERTED/ PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN FACT A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH
DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE INVERTED/ PREFRONTAL TROUGH FORMS ACROSS
THE AREA.THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK WITH
THE PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE/SURFACE FRONT REACHING THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THEREFORE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SCT AND BKN CEILINGS BTWN FL030/FL050 ARE
EXPECTED OVER TJMZ WITH PASSING SHRA FROM TIME TO TIME BTWN 21
/18Z-22Z. AFTER SUNSET ANOTHER PATCH OF DRY AIR WILL INVADE THE
REGION CREATING -SHRA TO NO ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME BRIEF VCSH ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS/TJSJ/TIST/TISX OVERNIGHT. MAINLY
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AND HIGHER GUSTS...THEN AFTER 21/23Z CALM-LIGHT/VRB.

&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET AND OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 10 FEET. SWELLS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT. ANOTHER PULSE OF NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 73 89 / 10 10 20 20
STT 73 83 74 82 / 20 20 30 30

[arizona_sooner]

Hey I thought I would post a validation of the weather down here in the south-eastern Caribbean.

http://imgur.com/ja062fN

Maracas Bay, Trinidad from last Wednesday... Big waves and good weather!