Florida Weather

[psyclone]

what will become our squall line with a severe weather risk overnight is currently organizing off the Texas coast. it is remarkable to think this will only take about 12 hours to traverse the Gulf. We should have a somewhat higher risk of svr wx with this round compared to the last as warmer/more humid air is already in place and is advecting in as we speak. I think eventual tornado watches will cover central and south florida as this event unfolds. Also of note is the gradient wind. we frequently go an entire winter with no gale warnings in the nearshore marine legs for NWS tampa bay and we've now had two in the past 3 days. this is the active el nino amped weather we've been expecting..

[psyclone]

I am surprised this thread is dead considering the squall line approaching us. mesoscale discussion from the SPC seems impressive as well. tornado watch likely coming soon.

[Sanibel]

A rain preview showed up early with a weird propagation north. The main storm is yet to come later tonight.


The general pattern is a weird mix of a colder winter alternating with a strong nino. Cold fronts, rain, and warm.

[psyclone]

tornado watch for central & southern fl with moderate probabilities

[chaser1]

Low looks like its really cranking; lowest pressure over Florida with this low? I'm going to guess 996mb

[MetroMike]

May be a Sleepless night for people concerned and caring about the possible Tornado threat for Central/ South Florida. Including myself.

[chaser1]

More often than not, those squall lines that come through here end up "lining out" and pass with little fanfair. This one however appears to be co-located with a low that'll be deepening and NOT flying off to the Northeast, thus causing our prefrontal activity to lose its support. Not gonna be the case here. I think there's going to be a pretty widespread area of straight-line wind damage caused by 40-60mph gusts. Perhaps a broad area of reported scattered power outages, tree limb damage, and some associated roof damage caused by tree impacts

[Sanibel]

Pretty good wind here right now and the front is still well out in the Gulf.

Check out the shortwave loop. That sucker is crankin, moving, and getting deeper. We're going to get hammered with rain in a few hours.

[psyclone]

probably the best tornado threat will be with any discrete cells that pop in front of the squall line. the long range radar seems to show some of that coming into view. the squall line itself probably has the greater straight line wind potential. lightning data shows the squall line is most intense from the latitude of about tampa bay and points south. it's moving very fast so a high rate of forward motion in conjunction with very strong winds aloft would imply a decent wind threat...and the gradient gales after frontal passage (as per buoy obs) are quite impressive.

[psyclone]

sounds like some possible tornado damage in the Sarasota area.

[northjaxpro]

The Low Pressure area is now down to 997 mb approaching thr Big Bend area of Florida. The Low is tracking right over North Central Florida and is dumping heavy rainfall across the region. I just checked a few moments ago and just under an inch of rain has been measured ad a whole lot more still to move through before ending late morning. The Low will track just south of Jax this morning and will intensify off the SE U.S. and move northeast later today. Heavy rain willcontinue for Jax area, but the best ins t sbility will besouth of the Low track. Best chance of elevated thunderstorms ot possibly strong to severe storms will be across the central and southern peninsula. The threat will end about after 9-10 a.m. this morning down there as the Low pulls away.

Will be back later to discuss the first real arctic airmass of this winter to be felt across Jax and North Florida. Looks like a freeze for Monday night and a good likelihood of a hard freeze across North Florida Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Latest MOS is indicating mid-upper 20s for much of North Florida on Wednesday morning.

[AdamFirst]

As it makes its approach

[northjaxpro]

The 996 mb Gale center, just off the NE Florida and SE GA coast at this hour this morning, is producing winds to gale and storm force this morning. I just measured a north wind gust to 43 mph the last ten minutes, and winds are frquently bern sustainef in the 25-35 mph range the hour or so. The Low is intensifying offshore and this looks to be an impressive storm system off the East Coast through the next couple of days.

Total rainfall measufed from this departing storm at my locale ended up being 1.75 inches. Quite impressive for this time of the year for sure. We are definitely now into the cool, stormy pattetn we typically see with El Nino for certain now.We will see more of this Low Pressure systems riding along the subtropical jet in the days to come.

[Sanibel]

Full flood level in pond. Strong cold front wind from NW.

2 killed in mobile home in Manatee. Tornado blew it apart at 3:30am. House blown apart by F-2 tornado Siesta Key. Woman rescued from debris.

[NDG]

This El Nino is living up to its name, our winters in central and south FL are usually so non-eventfull.
Incredible wind reports when the line of storms blew through down in SW FL outside the tornadoes.

Code: Select all

Tornado Reports (CSV) (Raw Tornado CSV)(?)
Time      Location   County   State   Lat   Lon   Comments
0810      5 S SARASOTA   SARASOTA   FL   2726   8255   STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND DAMAGE TO SEVERAL CONDOS IN THE 6200 BLOCK OF MIDNIGHT PASS ROAD ON SIESTA KEY. (TBW)
0811      5 S SARASOTA   SARASOTA   FL   2726   8255   STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO HOUSES ON SHELBURNE LANE. (TBW)
0815      5 S SARASOTA   SARASOTA   FL   2726   8255   TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES AND SIGNS DOWN WITH BUILDING DAMAGE AT HWY 41 AND CLARK ROAD. ESTIMATED WINDS 70 MPH. (TBW)
0845      3 N DUETTE   MANATEE   FL   2763   8213   *** 1 INJ *** MANATEE COUNTY 911 REPORTS STRUCTURE COLLAPSE IN DUETTE WITH AN UNKNOWN NUMBER OF INJURIES OF VARYING DEGREES. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (TBW)
Hail Reports (CSV) (Raw Hail CSV)(?)
No reports received
Wind Reports (CSV) (Raw Wind CSV)(?)
Time   Speed   Location   County   State   Lat   Lon   Comments
0930   58   5 SE MANASOTA KEY   CHARLOTTE   FL   2687   8232   HOME WEATHER STATION MEASURED 58 MPH ON DON PEDRO ISLAND. (TBW)
0935   UNK   BOKEELIA   LEE   FL   2670   8217   SEVERAL POWER POLES AND LINES KNOCKED DOWN ALONG TROPICAL LANE. TIME BASED ON RADAR. (TBW)
0955   UNK   3 NNE ARCADIA   DESOTO   FL   2726   8185   MULTIPLE TREES REPORTED DOWN ALONG HAMMOCK ROAD. TIME BASED ON RADAR. (TBW)
0955   UNK   5 ESE WAUCHULA   HARDEE   FL   2752   8173   *** 1 INJ *** HARDEE COUNTY 911 REPORTED A POWERLINE IS DOWN ON COLIN ROAD AND A RESIDENT CAME IN CONTACT WITH A LIVE WIRE. DEGREE OF INJURY IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. (TBW)
0955   UNK   6 E WAUCHULA   HARDEE   FL   2755   8171   TREES DOWN AND BLOCKING THE ROAD ON CECIL DURRANCE ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (TBW)
1000   UNK   1 NNW FROSTPROOF   POLK   FL   2776   8154   REPORTS FROM HOMEOWNER OF AWNING BLOWN OFF OF HOME. WINDS ESTIMATED 50-60 MPH. (TBW)
1005   UNK   3 NE SUNCOAST ESTATES   LEE   FL   2675   8183   POWER POLES AND LINES KNOCKED DOWN ALONG TAMMY LANE IN NORTH FORT MYERS. TIME BASED ON RADAR. (TBW)
1025   58   2 WSW SOUTH NAPLES   COLLIER   FL   2610   8178   MEASURED BY WEATHERBUG STATION AT HAMILTON HARBOR YACHT CLUB. (MFL)
1025   84   2 ENE NAPLES   COLLIER   FL   2615   8177   AT WEATHERBUG STATION LOCATED AT NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT. (MFL)
1025   82   2 ENE NAPLES   COLLIER   FL   2615   8178   MEASURED AT NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (MFL)
1025   UNK   2 E FORT MYERS SHORES   LEE   FL   2672   8170   LARGE TREES KNOCKED DOWN ALONG WEST COURT PLACE IN BUCKINGHAM. TIME BASED ON RADAR. (TBW)
1027   UNK   1 SSW NAPLES   COLLIER   FL   2613   8181   TRANSFORMERS BLOWN AND POWER LINES DOWN IN NAPLES PIER AREA. STRONG WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT LEAST 60 MPH BY SPOTTER. (MFL)
1030   60   1 E LELY   COLLIER   FL   2611   8170   MEASURED BY WEATHERBUG STATION ON ROOF OF COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER ABOUT 50 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. (MFL)
1030   UNK   1 WNW GOLDEN GATE   COLLIER   FL   2618   8172   LARGE PINE TREES WITH TOPS TORN OFF NEAR CORONADO PKWY. LARGE BRANCHES ON TOP OF CARS. (MFL)
1040   UNK   1 WNW GOLDEN GATE   COLLIER   FL   2619   8172   LARGE TREE SNAPPED AND FELL ON TWO CARS IN DRIVEWAY. ANOTHER TREE ACROSS THE STREET FELL ON HOUSE. LOCATION IS 54 TER SW AND 21 PL SW IN GOLDEN GATE CITY. (MFL)
1040   UNK   2 N GOLDEN GATE   COLLIER   FL   2621   8171   TREES AND LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN IN NAPLES. A NORFOLK PINE TREE HAS BEEN STRIPPED. A TREE IS ALSO DOWN ON A CARPORT. POWERLINES ARE DOWN IN THE AREA AND A LARGE TREE IS (MFL)
1051   79   2 ESE IMMOKALEE   COLLIER   FL   2641   8142   A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 79 MPH AT THE SEMINOLE TRIBE RESERVATION IN IMMOKALEE (MFL)
1122   59   14 NW KEY WEST   GMZ033   FL   2471   8193   A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 51 KNOTS ... 59 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE WEATHERFLOW MESONET OBSERVATION SITE AT SMITH SHOAL LIGHT. (KEY)

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/climo/repo ... erday.html

[NDG]

Another strong storm system will be moving across the deep south by end of the week, the 0z Euro is slower than the GFS giving more time for CAPE values to go up across the Peninsula by Friday afternoon, could see another risk for severe wx Friday afternoon if the Euro is correct.

[Sanibel]

51* here feels cold. Presently it is -4* in Chicago.


There's been a persistent weather border coming over from the Pacific that has stopped the fronts from penetrating past us. It has been keeping us overcast and therefore cooler for the past few weeks. You can see it on the Water Vapor image.

[TheStormExpert]

Enjoy the cool/cold weather while it last, cause according to the latest CPC temperature outlook we will be back to warmer than average temperatures within the next 1-1/2 to 2 weeks.

[psyclone]

Not only that but the 8-14 day shows the entire lower 48 above normal...a very rare configuration that would seem to imply it will take a long time to dislodge the above normal temps from Florida once they get established.

[NDG]

I'm not buying the CPC's 8-14 day range forecast of above average temps for FL. The subtropical jet looks to stay active and the PNA is forecasted to stay positive, the rest of the country might go above average but I doubt we will also with the sypnotic set up. The NAO is now forecasted to stay near average.