Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ralph's Weather]

The early next week trough is shown consistently on all models it seems. Still too far out to resolve surface features though. I like our chances with a stronger Arctic high than this past storm and a similar Gulf portion.

[Portastorm]

12Z GFS kills the snow for central and southeast texas. Stil shows a rather potent trough moving through.

Wow! I never expected that. Big snow event for the East Coast Friday/Saturday, though.

You better hope nothing happens early next week ... because if it does ... we're going to be merciless with you!

[Brent]

12Z GFS kills the snow for central and southeast texas. Stil shows a rather potent trough moving through.

Wow! I never expected that. Big snow event for the East Coast Friday/Saturday, though.

But the DFW snow next Monday Night is still there... hey it's just over a week away.

[hriverajr]

12Z GFS kills the snow for central and southeast texas. Stil shows a rather potent trough moving through.

Wow! I never expected that. Big snow event for the East Coast Friday/Saturday, though.

Yep, that storm is looking more certain...

[TheProfessor]

That 48 inches of snow the Euro dumped on the Mid-Atlantic would be a dream come true. Is it too much to ask for a NW Shift?

[Ntxw]

Euro is pretty blase for Texas, most of the cold locked up in far N Canada

[Portastorm]

King Euro hasn't been much better than the GFS as of late. Today I was supposed to get 2-3" of snow per several runs of the ECMWF last week. Sunny and 56 right now at the PWC. So much for that.

[hriverajr]

King Euro hasn't been much better than the GFS as of late. Today I was supposed to get 2-3" of snow per several runs of the ECMWF last week. Sunny and 56 right now at the PWC. So much for that.

I was about to say.. had a south texas snow storm, and then central texas snow.. has not been good either around these parts.

[Ntxw]

To point out again not all is bad. As mentioned the -AO is struggling to go positive and models are potential tank again. Feb will be -AO but lets hope for some cold air to make use of it

[wxman57]

The Euro has been MUCH better than the GFS in recent weeks/months as far as the snow areas. 12z EC has the snow staying WELL north of the Red River early next week. I wouldn't say that snow is certain for D-FW. GFS has a couple of inches in the Metroplex next week, but the trend is for the snow to fall farther north. I'd trust the EC over the GFS at this point.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Mid to upper 60s as highs for the extended forecast sure looks discouraging.

[Ralph's Weather]

The Euro has been MUCH better than the GFS in recent weeks/months as far as the snow areas. 12z EC has the snow staying WELL north of the Red River early next week. I wouldn't say that snow is certain for D-FW. GFS has a couple of inches in the Metroplex next week, but the trend is for the snow to fall farther north. I'd trust the EC over the GFS at this point.

The GFS seemed to have the best handle on the last storm. All models have been pretty scattered here lately. At 500 mb all three global models have shown a deep trough crossing Texas around next Tuesday for at least the last day.

[Ralph's Weather]

Mid to upper 60s as highs for the extended forecast sure looks discouraging.

The 12Z GFS had only one day (300 hour) that looked warm and that was just compressional heating ahead of a cold blast. I doubt we see much warmth anytime soon as high latitude blocking is entrenched for the rest of winter it looks. Though with little cold building in Canada I doubt we see much bitter cold either. Lots of highs between 35 and 60 for northern Texas for the remainder of winter.

[hriverajr]

18Z GFS has an intensifying trough moving through Texas next week, with really chilly 850T values. Have to see if its consistent.

[Brent]

GFS has 76 degrees at DFW on January 31st...

fortunately, it is 324 hours out and nothing ever verifies then.

[Wntrwthrguy]

I saw something today about "plant effect snow" in Hutchinson county in the Texas panhandle last night that dropped 1-2 inches of snow. Has anyone ever heard of this before? What conditions does it take to occur?

[TarrantWx]

I saw something today about "plant effect snow" in Hutchinson county in the Texas panhandle last night that dropped 1-2 inches of snow. Has anyone ever heard of this before? What conditions does it take to occur?

NWS Amarillo has an excellent write up on it here
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/ama/even ... ummary.pdf

[Brent]

Zzzz... come on, cross the Red River!

[Ntxw]

So far in January DFW is +0.3F or near normal. Austin is -0.8F which is near normal to slightly below. Wxman57's backyard (IAH) is the big winner at -2.4F


I like the Euro weeklies. I don't know how much faith to put into them but -PNA southern rockies trough is always interesting for us.

[wxman57]

No snow for NE TX in the overnight models (GFS, EC, CMC). Snow stays up in Oklahoma next week. No big surprise. Models don't indicate any significant cold or any significant warmth for much of Texas over the next 2 weeks, only more of this in-between cold weather.