Texas Winter 2015-2016

[hriverajr]

At this point those of us in Texas have to hope for a pattern change in February for one potential last shot. We continue to have a lack of 1040+ or above HP's in Canada to deliver cold air. It has been that way the entire winter for whatever reason. I wish it was different.. oh well... Moisture feed is suppressed very far south into southern Mexico. El Nino is not doing much for us moisture wise the last month. In fact areas which normally provide us mid and upper level moisture west of Mexico is showing subsidence and has been doing so for a while now.

[Ntxw]

At this point those of us in Texas have to hope for a pattern change in February for one potential last shot. We continue to have a lack of 1040+ or above HP's in Canada to deliver cold air. It has been that way the entire winter for whatever reason. I wish it was different.. oh well... Moisture feed is suppressed very far south into southern Mexico. El Nino is not doing much for us moisture wise the last month. In fact areas which normally provide us mid and upper level moisture west of Mexico is showing subsidence and has been doing so for a while now.

We need to revert back to the pattern in late December. And all of the other patterns we had during the rain events. Big -PNA trough digging int the southern rockies. That will tug the STJ north. Surprisingly though -PNA or RNA is actually a La Nina signal. The east coast and southeast east trough (+PNA) is too much El Nino climo...this is why the best winters is during moderate events and the big ones really suck



Not this...



I honestly think the +PNA favor-ability over the years was stemmed by mets and advocates along the east coast. And we took it as a good signal here but it's not that great. Eastern Canada cold doesn't move our way.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Why's the Thursday system not catching anyone's attention?

[Ntxw]

Why's the Thursday system not catching anyone's attention?

It's been trending further south yes. And it's mostly the NAM. Biggest caveat is not so cold surface temperatures. But yes, it would be a miracle (same system that's going to cause the Mid-Atlantic blizzard)

[Brent]

I wish the Thursday storm would become something but I just don't see it. We can't win we either have the cold air and no moisture or moisture and no cold air.

[TheProfessor]

Welp All my hope has been put into the NAM, that's not a good thing. I'm hoping it scores a Coup though. According to guys on other Forums the NAM is one of the models that seems to see a NW shift first and is the model that usually screw Oh out of big snows to the North. The snow is south so I'm hoping for it to happen again. But it's the NAM

[Ntxw]

Welp All my hope has been put into the NAM, that's not a good thing. I'm hoping it scores a Coup though. According to guys on other Forums the NAM is one of the models that seems to see a NW shift first and is the model that usually screw Oh out of big snows to the North. The snow is south so I'm hoping for it to happen again. But it's the NAM

GFS will be running soon. System is actually crashing into the Pacific NW now so tonight's run should be telling for you. The Euro shift south and ENS was discouraging for the Ohio Valley but good for the Tenn Valley. This is a cut off low though so really it could go anywhere...

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

00Z RGEM looks very similar to the 00Z NAM. Precipitation wraps onto the backside of the low with cold 850mb temperatures overhead.

[Ntxw]

00Z RGEM looks very similar to the 00Z NAM. Precipitation wraps onto the backside of the low with cold 850mb temperatures overhead.

It would need to be a good 10F colder at the surface. Right now both models are dropping temps into the mid 40s as the precip intensifies. Both are putting a good inch of QPF, so if it's 10F colder maybe heavy sleet? Small shot though atm

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

00Z RGEM looks very similar to the 00Z NAM. Precipitation wraps onto the backside of the low with cold 850mb temperatures overhead.

It would need to be a good 10F colder at the surface. Right now both models are dropping temps into the mid 40s as the precip intensifies. Both are putting a good inch of QPF, so if it's 10F colder maybe heavy sleet? Small shot though atm

Yeah, who knows? 4KM NAM shows temperatures ranging from 38-43 across north Texas during that time frame.

[TheProfessor]

00Z RGEM looks very similar to the 00Z NAM. Precipitation wraps onto the backside of the low with cold 850mb temperatures overhead.

It would need to be a good 10F colder at the surface. Right now both models are dropping temps into the mid 40s as the precip intensifies. Both are putting a good inch of QPF, so if it's 10F colder maybe heavy sleet? Small shot though atm

I've been seeing that a more Amplified Trough would send the Low further North as it gets further east. (though they said it's unlikely to happen) this would help you guys too right? wouldn't it allow for colder air to reach you guys as the more amplified trough would initially send it further south?

[Ntxw]

I've been seeing that a more Amplified Trough would send the Low further North as it gets further east. (though they said it's unlikely to happen) this would help you guys too right? wouldn't it allow for colder air to reach you guys as the more amplified trough would initially send it further south?

Yeah, like the APPS runner tracks. It would have to go negative tilt earlier here, which his good for us too. It would avoid being a coastal and inland storm instead.

[weatherdude1108]

At this point those of us in Texas have to hope for a pattern change in February for one potential last shot. We continue to have a lack of 1040+ or above HP's in Canada to deliver cold air. It has been that way the entire winter for whatever reason. I wish it was different.. oh well... Moisture feed is suppressed very far south into southern Mexico. El Nino is not doing much for us moisture wise the last month. In fact areas which normally provide us mid and upper level moisture west of Mexico is showing subsidence and has been doing so for a while now.

We need to revert back to the pattern in late December. And all of the other patterns we had during the rain events. Big -PNA trough digging int the southern rockies. That will tug the STJ north. Surprisingly though -PNA or RNA is actually a La Nina signal. The east coast and southeast east trough (+PNA) is too much El Nino climo...this is why the best winters is during moderate events and the big ones really suck



Not this...



I honestly think the +PNA favor-ability over the years was stemmed by mets and advocates along the east coast. And we took it as a good signal here but it's not that great. Eastern Canada cold doesn't move our way.

Why is the STJ so far south this month compared to the last few?

[Ntxw]

Why is the STJ so far south this month compared to the last few?

Not certain but it is January. Furthest south position of the jets according to climo as the NHEM cools. January's are not notorious for heavy precipitation events. It is technically a dry month compared to the others. Plus our heavy rain events from the previous months were tied to EPAC activity. There's no activity going on there, as the season has ended (winter).

We have to be careful comparing things to the past year in terms of rainfall, that was an extreme anomaly and not the norm. 2015 was a 2-3 Sigma event rain for many annually. Something you will probably not see again anytime soon. Majority of the very biggest El Nino's reverted back to near normal rainfall the second year. 1973 being the exception however 1972 was rather dry.

[Ntxw]

Euro just had an interesting run for Thursday night. For the first time it has some frozen precip in parts N and NE Texas, even out near Shreveport, LA. It looks like the NAM with much heavy QPF and maybe even colder (mid 30s) surface temps. It's been going south all day today, the storm is being sampled now by the upper air network.

850 temps on the Euro is -4 to -6C. That is very cold aloft while very heavy QPF is falling.

[Brent]

Euro just had an interesting run for Thursday night. For the first time it has some frozen precip in parts N and NE Texas, even out near Shreveport, LA. It looks like the NAM with much heavy QPF and maybe even colder (mid 30s) surface temps. It's been going south all day today, the storm is being sampled now by the upper air network.

850 temps on the Euro is -4 to -6C. That is very cold aloft while very heavy QPF is falling.

Just noticed that when someone was posting a clown map for the EC lol

[Ntxw]

Euro just had an interesting run for Thursday night. For the first time it has some frozen precip in parts N and NE Texas, even out near Shreveport, LA. It looks like the NAM with much heavy QPF and maybe even colder (mid 30s) surface temps. It's been going south all day today, the storm is being sampled now by the upper air network.

850 temps on the Euro is -4 to -6C. That is very cold aloft while very heavy QPF is falling.

Just noticed that when someone was posting a clown map for the EC lol

If it's that's cold at 850 it's going to be snowing underneath that deformation band. If this monster storm slows down a little, it's going to surprise a lot of people. On Sunday the models had this thing snowing in Missouri and Kansas. Zilch coming that way. Now all of the QPF is south of the Red River. That's an almost 500 miles jog...

[TheProfessor]

Well I'm hoping this low Goes Neg tilt over you guys, it will give you snow and it would help strengthen the low preventing a really fast Southeast Transfer that leaves me without any snow.

[wxman57]

My brother lives and DC. He sent a text yesterday how they were expecting 1-2 feet of snow this weekend, and if we wanted to come visit. I may say yes at this point.

Get a plane ticket right now! This may be the snow storm of your life. Don't miss it. Guidance still indicates 20-25 inches of snow starting during the day on Friday. By Friday evening, the airports may be shutting down. Plan to stay a few extra days, though, as the airlines will be really backed up after this storm (for days).

[wxman57]

Finally, a few inches of snow for the Dallas-Ft. Worth area next Tuesday. Only 6-7 days out. Is the GFS just taunting you Metroplexers again? Euro says yes...

Oh, and forget tomorrow night.