Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

It's actually not a horrible look. Workable. In truth the heights will begin to rise over Alaska. We're going to warm up a lot before the -EPO kicks in by crashing that storm out west, that's the reason we warm up so much this week. Once passage of that storm perhaps we can tap into better cold air. Height rises in Alaska in winter is always a good thing...

Rest of this week though will be boring.

I'm going to go out on a limb and call for the -EPO to show up in February. The Aleutian low should retrograde enough to allow enough ridging to happen. Plus it's February it loves -EPO. Rock and lock. A little hopeful? Yes, but Nino's love February all of them. You'll be hard pressed to find a Nino Feb without snow here.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Thats the spirit!

[1900hurricane]

Winter is nice and all (unless it's cold), but my attention is to the February 1st system. The ECMWF/EPS is really carving out a beautiful trough. Moisture return is the question, but I think chances are decent enough at this point that we could see some severe weather along the coastal plain.

[Brent]

The GFS is really dumping the cold in the long range(though the brunt is east based) and perhaps more importantly building up a nice snowpack to our northwest going forward...

[Ntxw]

The GFS is really dumping the cold in the long range(though the brunt is east based) and perhaps more importantly building up a nice snowpack to our northwest going forward...

Another thing to take note (on all guidance) is the gradual retrograding of the Aleutian low (NPAC low). This will slow down the jet and allow amplification of the -EPO ridge if it comes true.

[Yukon Cornelius]

From the weather channel

[wxman57]

From the weather channel
http://i63.tinypic.com/zlol80.jpg

Looking at that map, note that the temps are much above normal to our north. Below normal for the deep south means that the highs will likely be lower than normal due to increased clouds and a general lack of return flow off the Gulf. With such relatively warm air over the northern U.S. it's hard to get the air down here cold enough for snow.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Euro at 240 hrs showing a great blocking signal around the poles. Right now, my high pressure is located east of Hawaii which we are not a fan of. Good news is that the Euro shows it weakening and retreating west of hawaii. This will position the Low near alaska in a much favorable part of the NPAC for us. GFS looks promising in the LR too. Ill go out on a bit of a limb and say Houston will have 3 freezes in Feb. I think were in for a pattern change that many of us winter lovers enjoy.

#NeverGiveUp

[weatherdude1108]

This really has been the "January thaw."

[Ntxw]

That's a huge trough being dug behind the blizzard to start February after this week's warmth. Entrance of the system has been up and down the plains run to run, no doubt about it very powerful system to kick off February.

[Yukon Cornelius]

From the weather channel
http://i63.tinypic.com/zlol80.jpg

Looking at that map, note that the temps are much above normal to our north. Below normal for the deep south means that the highs will likely be lower than normal due to increased clouds and a general lack of return flow off the Gulf. With such relatively warm air over the northern U.S. it's hard to get the air down here cold enough for snow.

That's what I was afraid of. With not much cold up north it would be hard to get the really cold air down here, especially with probable lack of snow cover.

[srainhoutx]

Plenty of snow on the ground across the North Hemisphere including North America.

[JDawg512]

Despite all the other models showing today's disturbance being too dry for anything more than a few light showers, the Euro was the lone wolf giving us better rain chances. Looks like the Euro has won out as we are seeing thunderstorms developing just southwest of San Antonio moving north/northeast up the I-35 coridoor. Just spoke with a friend down there and he is reporting darkening skies and rumbles of thunder.

[Ntxw]

Pfft it can be warmer than normal up there in March and April. We just need February to have anomalous cold for a few weeks . It's going to be a cold spring though. Nearly all El Nino's of every kind features a chilly spring.

Calling it, coldest air of the season behind that big blizzard early Feb.

[hriverajr]

"FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THOUGH."

Told you i had an eye on this system. even if just a bit.

[Ntxw]

Also angular momentum is dropping fast (first time in what seems like a year). we may actually deviate from the El Nino climo. In February low angular momentum (La Nina) builds big cold in Western Canada. It promotes NPAC anticyclones (-EPO).

The Nino has really begun to take a hit on it's strength. You can see the significant weakening of the eastern equatorial Pacific in recent weeks

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/s ... .week.html

[Portastorm]

Despite all the other models showing today's disturbance being too dry for anything more than a few light showers, the Euro was the lone wolf giving us better rain chances. Looks like the Euro has won out as we are seeing thunderstorms developing just southwest of San Antonio moving north/northeast up the I-35 coridoor. Just spoke with a friend down there and he is reporting darkening skies and rumbles of thunder.

That is a good point. I recall yesterday morning's AFD out of EWX talked about how the Euro was the outlier in being the "wetter" model. King Euro wins out once again. Radar is active at lunchtime over south central Texas.

[Portastorm]

"FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THOUGH."

Told you i had an eye on this system. even if just a bit.

No, no ... you said winter was over. Remember?!

[hriverajr]

I said maybe after this system.. hahahh look at my posts Seriously its unlikely, but a flurry would be nice.

[Ntxw]

I said maybe after this system.. hahahh look at my posts Seriously its unlikely, but a flurry would be nice.

I like the pattern after this warm up. It's actually quite good for the western half of the state too. -EPO is going to manifest Around Feb 1st-2nd. I think we will feel the fruits of it shortly thereafter. The blizzard is going to trend south. All of them do of this nature. another howler for Lubbock and Amarillo