Next Potential Area

Steve H. · #1 Postby **Steve H.** » Mon Sep 22, 2003 7:05 am

Watch the Yucatan Channel this weekend for signs of development. Both the AVN (GFS) and NOGAPS show low pressure in this are, and with the front hanging up or washing out to the north, something could pop there. Future model runs should trend toward development in this area. Cheers!!

#2 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Sep 22, 2003 7:53 am

WooHoo!!! Just what we need!!!! NOT!!!!!

With fronts starting to come through regularly, at least for now, it appears the West GOM are will be "immune"(I wish!!!), shall we say less likely to recieve anything developing in that area. Not that we are immune to tropical moisture. Hurricane Marty, now over the Southern Baja is sending us plenty of that right now. I've had 11" at my house this month with 2" of that coming yesterday.

We'll be watching that area with interest to say the least.

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 22, 2003 7:55 am

I saw the nogaps. It Will be interesting to see if they continue to show this area and if it develops where it would go :o

Guest · #4 Postby **Guest** » Mon Sep 22, 2003 1:34 pm

Can someone post a link to the NOGAPS progs?

Thanks,
Patricia

#5 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Sep 22, 2003 1:36 pm

Its been too quite the past few days.

Rainband · #6 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 22, 2003 1:54 pm

ticka1 wrote:Can someone post a link to the NOGAPS progs?

Thanks,
Patricia

use public no password required. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ then go to tropical atlantic nogaps or gfs :wink:

#7 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 22, 2003 3:03 pm

I use this link:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WXMAP/index.html

Stormsfury · #8 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Sep 22, 2003 7:58 pm

For closer to home...I use this for NOGAPS...

Scroll 2/3rd down the page.
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Models/Models.html

Steve H. · #9 Postby **Steve H.** » Tue Sep 23, 2003 3:49 pm

This may cause the action in the NW Caribbean. Models not really developing anything of significance here, but pressures are low, and the models hint of something. Next day or twoo some solutions should show development somewhere in the Caribbean or GOM.

AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE LOW LVL EASTERLIES ALONG 58W AND S OF
15N WILL MOVE ALONG 61W/62W BY 24 HRS...64W/65W BY 36 HRS...
68W/69W BY 48 HRS...71W/72W BY 60 HRS...75W/76W BY 72 HRS. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SRN WINDWARD ISLES/
NERN VENEZUELA (ORINOCO RIVER DELTA) BY 24 HRS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 60 HRS AS THE WAVE INDUCES THE NORTHWARD MODULATION OF
THE ITCZ...TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 05-15MM/DAY AND
ISLD RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. AS IT MOVES ALONG NRN
VENEZUELA EXPECT ISLD CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE...WITH LIGHT
RAINFALL TO AFFECT THE ABC ISLES BY THE END OF THE CYCLE.
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR AN MCC/MCS TO
FORM OVER LAKE MARACAIBO BETWEEN 48-60 HRS...WITH RAINFALL
MAXIMA TO CONCENTRATE BETWEEN APURE-MARACAIBO.

Next Potential Area

Next Potential Area

NOGAPS

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