Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Portastorm]

Hey now ... look at who is giving us some hope!

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

Hey now ... look at who is giving us some hope!

Yeah, and it's only 360 hrs out!

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow:

Hey now ... look at who is giving us some hope!

Yeah, and it's only 360 hrs out!

He's just teasing us again. It's supposed to be 82 degrees on Sunday in Austin! Woohoo! Time for the Summer thread!

[Portastorm]

I've just started a Texas Spring 2016 item in the US & Caribbean weather thread. Why not? It'll be here before we know it.

[TheProfessor]

That first system will be very important, if rising heights can be subdued then the first system (which might be stronger than modeled) could lay a baroclinic zone that allows for the main system to dig further south than modeled. It also seems that if the storm goes neg tilt too fast it will cut Northeast before it can fully dig.

It happens over and over again and again. We see this so many times in winter. The models place the surface low in the wrong area. Coastal Texas loves to draw in surface lows. Period. Especially if the base of troughs dig near the US/Mexican border. I can't tell you how many times Kansas has been robbed of snowstorms because of this. In the fall and spring it's different the jet mean doesn't dip into old Mexico so that would be valid for a Colorado low genesis.

If a coastal low were to form (though wxman says it's unlikely) how would that affect me in Ohio?

[Yukon Cornelius]

If I remember correctly it was really warm this time last year with temps in the low 80s. I do know we had at least one good ice storm sometime in February and 2-3 decent to good snowstorms in March. There's definitely still hope. I wouldn't give up on winter on January 28. We still have all of February and March.

[Ralph's Weather]

If I remember correctly it was really warm this time last year with temps in the low 80s. I do know we had at least one good ice storm sometime in February and 2-3 decent to good snowstorms in March. There's definitely still hope. I wouldn't give up on winter on January 28. We still have all of February and March.

Agree, January usually has warm spells and little snow around here. Our snow usually comes in Feb and early March and sometimes early in winter. Look for the STJ to shift back north and when that combines with some combo of -EPO and or -PNA we will get our next shot for snow.

[Tireman4]

Yeah, it is not usually the January thaw....or am I missing something..

[Texas Snowman]

Portastorm,

He's pulled you over to the dark side.

Starting the spring thread...in January?!? Oh where did our fearless leader go?

I feel like Han Solo did in that last moment as he was trying to rescue his son in the new Star Wars movie!

[wxman57]

Come over here, Texas Lack-of-Snow Man, I have something for you....

Forgot to mention, the 2016 forecast has started (Conroe is this month's city) and I'm in the lead going into the final days of the month. I went warm, again, with my forecast. I'll take my hand off the thermostat for a few days after the 31st, but then I'll regain control late next week.

[Texas Snowman]

(In my best joking manner and with a cyber-smile upon my face):

"Ahem, like so many of the heavy breathing Star Wars villains that have made their way across the big screen, you sir, are only full of hot air.

Hands on the thermostat? Pffffftttt. You controlling the weather? Puh-leaze. The Force simply isn't THAT strong with you.

After all, this is Texas. It was often mild during the winter months long before you came on the scene. And it will be mild during the winter months long after you and I are gone. It's the nature of where we live.

But once every so often, the Jedi forces of nature stir themselves once again and find a way to elude the grasp of those would-be Death Star emperors who hug the daily model output.

One day, my dear Wxman57, whether it is this year or next, we the rebels will have something for you once again, a shot of cold air plunging south from Canada and a big dumping of North, Central and South Texas sneaux (in honor of Mardi Gras for our friends over in Louisiana).

As I recall, you were crowing mightily at this time last year, only to eat some humble sneaux-pie by winter's end.

It will happen again, kind sir, it will happen again.

It's only a matter of time.

A matter of time before the winter good that lies within you comes back to the surface and you take off that silly heat miser helmet and start breathing normally again.

Until then, we, the Texas wintertime rebels, will NEVER give in!

And you can build a sneauxman with that! "

[wxman57]

Boy, is it ever dead in here. Plotted meteograms for Houston & D-FW (below) from the 12z GFS.

How fitting! When I went to upload the DFW meteogram at tinypic.com, the code I had to enter (to prove I wasn't a robot) was "Tissue Box".

[Ralph's Weather]

The second week of Feb still looks interesting on the 12Z GFS ensembles. Only a few members have the ingredients all meeting up though as of now.

[orangeblood]

Ensembles are honing in on a pattern change in the 7-10 day range...classic Arctic Outbreak setup!!!

[Ralph's Weather]

Next Thursday morning is looking cold. GEM has DFW at 20 and GFS upper 20s.

[Portastorm]

I like your spirit orangeblood!

Over? Over? Nothing's over until WE say it's over.

Bring on the Arctic air.

[Brent]

If I remember correctly it was really warm this time last year with temps in the low 80s. I do know we had at least one good ice storm sometime in February and 2-3 decent to good snowstorms in March. There's definitely still hope. I wouldn't give up on winter on January 28. We still have all of February and March.

Yep this date last year Dallas hit 81 degrees because I have a memory on Facebook today of it... And we all know how last year turned out so there's always hope.

[orangeblood]

I like your spirit orangeblood!

Over? Over? Nothing's over until WE say it's over.

Bring on the Arctic air.

haha, I see no reason to believe this winter is over by any stretch....just look at that image above, you can't ask for a better west coast ridge location for delivering the goods in our part of the world. We need the southeast ridge to make an appearance to allow Shortwaves to dig into the southwest US, bringing up Pacific moisture - you can see hints of that on the Euro/Canadian ensembles as well!!

[Ralph's Weather]

I like your spirit orangeblood!

Over? Over? Nothing's over until WE say it's over.

Bring on the Arctic air.

haha, I see no reason to believe this winter is over by any stretch....just look at that image above, you can't ask for a better west coast ridge location for delivering the goods in our part of the world. We need the southeast ridge to make an appearance to allow Shortwaves to dig into the southwest US, bringing up Pacific moisture - you can see hints of that on the Euro/Canadian ensembles as well!!

February is setting up pretty well. Maybe no bitter cold, but we do not really want that anyway. Snow is definitely on the table at least. And there is no early end to winter in sight, El Ninos have long winters and this one does not look to deviate from that.

Update: 18Z GFS sees the storm I am watching for. It will likely disappear and reappear a number of times over the next couple weeks from the models as it is a long ways out. Hopefully the pendulum swings our way with it though.

[srainhoutx]

Never trust the models beyond 5 days when the Hemispheric pattern is in flux...

A lot of day to day volatility even with the ECMWF-EPS. Mike Ventrice sent out this tweet early this afternoon.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice
ECMWF EPS really struggling with the 11-15 day pattern. Yesterday's 12Z temperature changes compared to today's run.

Yesterday:


Today: