Texas Winter 2015-2016

[dhweather]

I just want one hard freeze down to the gulf coast, we need to kill off the bugs before spring!

We've had a couple of hard freezes here this year, I saw a mosquito hawk (or whatever it really is) on the patio yesterday evening. Need a couple more hard freezes I guess.

384 hours ago, the GFS had it in the 70's today here, it's going to be in the 70's today here. THE GFS IS MONEY!

[wxman57]

...snip...

384 hours ago, the GFS had it in the 70's today here, it's going to be in the 70's today here. THE GFS IS MONEY!

I was just talking to my co-worker, the cold-mongerer. We agreed that the GFS is correct out to 15 days every day. The hard part is figuring out which of the 4 runs is the correct one.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS does indicate possible mixed precip (rain/sleet) in the D-FW area on Tuesday the 10th, as a wave/low forms on the front still lying across the northern Gulf at that time. The wave/low on the front may be fair bet, producing the precip, but how cold will the air be over Texas then? And how far north would the moisture get if the low is in the Gulf? Generally, not as far north as Dallas-Ft. Worth. Being 264hrs, the chart below is somewhat interesting but not yet believable.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I would like to have some help from the MJO.

For the record. The 00z snow scenario at 252 hrs is the perfect scenario for us. No way i can believe that.

[dhweather]

I'll believe the GFS 384 hours out, but not 264.

[orangeblood]

Latest Euro run is a classic setup for wintry weather in the southern plains.....flow directly out of Northern Canada/Arctic Circle with S/W energy digging into the southwest US.

[hriverajr]

Now that would be nice... but at this point still in Heat misers camp...

[wxman57]

If you look at the bigger picture, the flow is out of the Gulf of Alaska and western Canada on the 240-hr Euro, not the colder Polar region, which is at the northern border of the map. Note that 850mb temps aren't particularly cold across the Plains south into Texas at that same 240hr time.

The EC does indicate a deep south storm system around the 9th-10th with that big upper low coming across. The question is just how cold the air over Texas will be at that time.

[Ntxw]

585dm ridge in the GOA is much better! Pop that into NW Na and we're in business. None of this tall +PNA junk in the west. Off the coast is preferable.

[wxman57]

585dm ridge in the GOA is much better! Pop that into NW Na and we're in business. None of this tall +PNA junk in the west. Off the coast is preferable.

15-day EC ensembles are coming in now (through 24hrs now). Will see what they do with the GoA ridge beyond 240hrs soon...

[perk]

:uarrow: Now that would be nice... but at this point still in Heat misers camp...

Care to elaborate on why.

[orangeblood]

Odds of a Major Strat Warming event appear to be increasing..... Polar Vortex split occurring on Long Range GFS, somebody correct me if I'm wrong but I don't recall seeing this since maybe 2010 ??

[orangeblood]

Odds of a Major Strat Warming event appear to be increasing..... Polar Vortex split occurring on Long Range GFS, somebody correct me if I'm wrong but I don't recall seeing this since maybe 2010 ??

And for reference, here is the initial

[Ralph's Weather]

The 12Z GFS Ensemble member 18 has the almost an ideal winter scenario for Texas especially E TX. 1050+mb high over Colorado associated with a deep trough digging way into Mexico generating a Gulf low. 6"+ snow over E TX with 850mb Ts in the -10s. That right there would be how to finally get DFW below 10 possibly.
The 12Z GFS Ensemble mean has snow for a good portion of the state and cold temps throughout after this weekend. We look to stay on a pattern of early week storm then cold then warming by weekend then repeat.

[wxman57]

12Z EC ensembles are in. The Gulf of Alaska ridge never builds much north of Alaska. There's a deep Hudson Bay low, but the cold air is driven out of northern Canada across the Great Lakes & Ohio Valley vs. south down the Plains.

Desperation sets in - going with single GFS ensemble members now?

[Brent]

12Z EC ensembles are in. The Gulf of Alaska ridge never builds much north of Alaska. There's a deep Hudson Bay low, but the cold air is driven out of northern Canada across the Great Lakes & Ohio Valley vs. south down the Plains.

Desperation sets in - going with single GFS ensemble members now?

Come on... you've had your way most of the winter. It's our turn now...

[wxman57]

Come on... you've had your way most of the winter. It's our turn now...

Well, OK. Let me enjoy a couple of long bike rides this weekend and I'll let you have some snow after next week.

[lrak]

Didn't know where to post this but I thought I'm a Texan and I'll share it with my fellow Texans.

It's 9 minutes but it is really cool to watch in HD.

https://youtu.be/i4mBYwBNULk

[Brent]

Come on... you've had your way most of the winter. It's our turn now...

Well, OK. Let me enjoy a couple of long bike rides this weekend and I'll let you have some snow after next week.

That was too easy. I'm suspicious and was not born yesterday.

[wxman57]

Come on... you've had your way most of the winter. It's our turn now...

Well, OK. Let me enjoy a couple of long bike rides this weekend and I'll let you have some snow after next week.

That was too easy. I'm suspicious and was not born yesterday.

Rats! Caught me! 50 years from now is "after next week".