Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z EC ensembles are in. The Gulf of Alaska ridge never builds much north of Alaska. There's a deep Hudson Bay low, but the cold air is driven out of northern Canada across the Great Lakes & Ohio Valley vs. south down the Plains.

Desperation sets in - going with single GFS ensemble members now?

That was just the best single event. There are plenty other members that show winter fun. And the mean does too. It also fits what we expected for this winter so I am going with it until it becomes clear it will not happen.

[wxman57]

12Z EC ensembles are in. The Gulf of Alaska ridge never builds much north of Alaska. There's a deep Hudson Bay low, but the cold air is driven out of northern Canada across the Great Lakes & Ohio Valley vs. south down the Plains.

Desperation sets in - going with single GFS ensemble members now?

That was just the best single event. There are plenty other members that show winter fun. And the mean does too. It also fits what we expected for this winter so I am going with it until it becomes clear it will not happen.

I certainly expected more winter weather across Texas than has occurred. I was thinking 2-3 snow episodes in Houston before winter's end. Was, that is...

[weatherdude1108]

The warmth is a nice respite from the chilliness, but the dry is ridiculous, especially during a Nino Winter. I'm gunna have to turn on my sprinkler system just to keep the subsoil moist. Top soil has dried out in my yard (after a month with no soaking rains). You'd think we were in a La Nina. Faucet essentially shut off here right after Christmas.



093
FXUS64 KEWX 292055
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 PM CST FRI JAN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE AREA WITH A TIGHTENING AFTERNOON PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING
IN SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ALONG AND WEST OF THE I35
CORRIDOR. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND SOME OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WERE SEEING A FEW CLOUDS
IN THE SKY.

MOISTURE IN THE VERTICAL COLUMN CONTINUES TO BE ALMOST NON
EXISTENT AS 850 MB WINDS OUT OF THE WEST PROHIBIT ANY MOISTURE
RETURN. THIS DOESNT APPEAR TO BE CHANGING EITHER AS WINDS REMAIN
WESTERLY IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE MOST NOTABLE ASPECTS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE THE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS
AND FIRE WEATHER CONSIDERATIONS POST FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY.

PERTAINING TO THE HIGHS...CLOSELY INTERROGATING ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN PERFORMING THE BEST IN THIS
ABNORMALLY WARM AIR MASS AND IT IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN ITS
GFS COUNTERPART. WITH CONTINUED WEST WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...WOULD THINK THAT THE UPPER BOUND OF THE
ENSEMBLES IS POSSIBLE. ONLY POTENTIAL COMPLICATING FACTOR IS SOME
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE MONDAY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA RESULTING IN CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...OUT WEST ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND FLIRTING WITH 90 ARE
POSSIBLE.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING WILL CONSIDERABLY COOL THE
REGION BACK DOWN TO MORE NORMAL SEASON TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...MORE IMPORTANTLY THE VERY DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS WEST OF I35. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING POTENTIALLY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO A SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN REGARDS TO RH AND WIND IS
CONCERNED. FUELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONSIDERABLY DRY AND MAY HELP
TO LIMIT FIRE POTENTIAL BUT THERE ARE STILL 3 DAYS OF ABNORMALLY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST BEFORE
TUESDAY SO FUELS MAY BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

[Ralph's Weather]

I certainly expected more winter weather across Texas than has occurred. I was thinking 2-3 snow episodes in Houston before winter's end. Was, that is...

SE TX is running out of time. Y'all need to get something by mid month. Northern Texas still has 4-6 weeks left in the typical snow season.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

3 runs in a row the Euro is showing that high in the GOA at 240

[orangeblood]

12Z EC ensembles are in. The Gulf of Alaska ridge never builds much north of Alaska. There's a deep Hudson Bay low, but the cold air is driven out of northern Canada across the Great Lakes & Ohio Valley vs. south down the Plains.

Desperation sets in - going with single GFS ensemble members now?

Sorry Heat miser but your reign is over, Arctic Cold is about to overwhelm this pattern....

[orangeblood]

12Z EC ensembles are in. The Gulf of Alaska ridge never builds much north of Alaska. There's a deep Hudson Bay low, but the cold air is driven out of northern Canada across the Great Lakes & Ohio Valley vs. south down the Plains.

Desperation sets in - going with single GFS ensemble members now?

Sorry Heat miser but your reign is over, Arctic Cold is about to overwhelm this pattern....

576 DM into Northwest Canada with flow directly out of the Arctic Circle into the lower 48...

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi: Major arctic outbreak will engulf much of nation between rockies and Appalachians Feb 5-20. Likely coldest 2 weeks of winter

[TheProfessor]

I will enjoy the Texas Warmth before this arctic outbreak hits.

[Portastorm]

And here is wxman57 desperately clinging on to his final hopes that he can squash an entire winter for snow-loving members of this forum. Poor fella ... he's running out of time. Now the models say so as well.

[hriverajr]

I'm still in 57's camp

[Ntxw]

Poking the bear are we? I'm glad there is ensemble support for the +PNA ridge moves to off the west coast. Regardless of origin, good things happen when you have a NE Pacific ridge. The current Alaskan ridge will send the storm and cold associated early next week. If we can poke the new ridge up and set up deeper -EPO looks good.

February begins Monday. Snow and cold mongerers fear not this is our time, our month, our vengeance . Just the resonance of that word February sounds of snow!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

With the look of the 18z, would love for the STJ to surprise us. Only 2.27 inches of rain in january at TPB weather center. Crazy low for a Jan during a super nino

[Ntxw]

This is good, and closer range. This will at least build some sizable high pressure systems and some anomalous cold. 564dm up into NW NA is a lot better than the 540s we've had so far up there this year.

[Brent]

GFS has some snow just over in Oklahoma on Super Bowl Sunday, something to maybe watch there...

Flizzard alert at 360 hours!

[orangeblood]

Starting in 8-10 days, the Arctic Circle flood gates will be wide open.....

[Ntxw]

Starting in 8-10 days, the Arctic Circle flood gates will be wide open.....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... hem_45.png

If even it doesn't pan out, at least we are seeing 564dm heights up there with 1050+ HP's modeled. That hasn't even been modeled on any kind of consistent basis for more than a run this year. EPO open for business

[Ralph's Weather]

GFS is cold and a fair portion of the ensembles lean that way also. Below normal after early next wee through end of run with some days having highs near freezing. Not much snow with the NW flow, if we get some snow to lead off the really cold period then temps will be even colder.

[wxman57]

@BigJoeBastardi: Major arctic outbreak will engulf much of nation between rockies and Appalachians Feb 5-20. Likely coldest 2 weeks of winter

I agree with Joe, there. February 3-15 will likely be the coldest period of the winter here in Texas. The Dallas area may see low 20s, possibly upper teens, while Houston could see a sub-30 low. That would be my first freeze of the winter. Not much to be excited about. The pattern won't be good for precip in the cold air, though.

[Portastorm]

@BigJoeBastardi: Major arctic outbreak will engulf much of nation between rockies and Appalachians Feb 5-20. Likely coldest 2 weeks of winter

I agree with Joe, there. February 3-15 will likely be the coldest period of the winter here in Texas. The Dallas area may see low 20s, possibly upper teens, while Houston could see a sub-30 low. That would be my first freeze of the winter. Not much to be excited about. The pattern won't be good for precip in the cold air, though.

One step at a time, my warm weather loving friend, one step at a time. Just days ago we were lamenting nothing showing in the models. Now we have this. Better get plenty of bike rides in this weekend.