Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

Mslp is anomalous positive into week 2 of February (they are slightly positive next week). +Mslp in winter means cold air all over the place in North America. The Pacific is going to get blocked, and flow will come from the far North. If the EPO wants it cold, it will find cold.

[Tireman4]

Ahh man...not liking this Spring thaw this weekend...ughh

[wxman57]

Beautiful February weather today. Sunny and near 70. Heading out shortly on a long bike ride. Still a bit cold, but warm enough to ditch the thermal long-sleeve jersey and leg warmers. Unfortunately, tomorrow should be pretty cloudy. Though it may be warmer, it won't feel as warm as today without the sun.

12Z GFS has us getting down to the mid 30s next Thu/Fri, but back up into the 60s next weekend. Not as warm as this weekend.

[Ntxw]

Fab Feb Y'all. Cold and Snow, classic

[Ntxw]

Wouldn't be any fun without the Subtropical jet merging with the Polar jet now would it?

[Texas Snowman]

Ooohhh, look at all of the pretty colors!!!

[Portastorm]

More and more higher profile pro mets jumping on board the "Big Time Cold is Coming in February" train.

https://twitter.com/MarkVogan/status/693481316105506816

Michael Ventrice from WSI was also tweeting about it this morning.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Like the look even if its ten days out, its at least consistent. Euro has shown that same block consistently. For us in SE Tx, the dynamics have to be so perfect so iim remaining optimistic. Is it time to start looking at temps around the poles yet?

[Ntxw]

Like the look even if its ten days out, its at least consistent. Euro has shown that same block consistently. For us in SE Tx, the dynamics have to be so perfect so iim remaining optimistic. Is it time to start looking at temps around the poles yet?

ENS have keyed in on the higher heights for some time. OP sees it as it draws closer. This is a very robust wave 1 pushing the stratosphere. We like to see the AO tank with stratospheric warming but we forget that wave 1 comes from the Pacific, translating into strong ridging below it. Pacific is leading the way. Your hadley cell high pressure is moving north and east!

Canadian is identical to the GFS for that time frame. If we can lock that pattern for about 2 weeks Katy bar the door

[Ralph's Weather]

It seems like the Arctic will be unleashed next week. That kind of setup during a strong El Nino has to yeild winter fun you would think. Hope itnis not just apure NW flow. Though even with that light snow is possible. If the STJ joins the party things will get very interesting with 850s well below freezing. Maybe we can get a 6 year anniversary storm almost to the day.

[gpsnowman]

Is it time to get excited? I do not want to get my hopes up only to be kicked in the crotch.

[Brent]

Not bad

[orangeblood]

Is it time to get excited? I do not want to get my hopes up only to be kicked in the crotch.

Not quite yet, 12Z GFS Ens are backing off on the cold in the 10-15...breaking the Pacific ridge down after the storm around Feb 8-9th. Still too early for high confidence in a longer term pattern change....Canadian is on board, lets see what the Euro comes up with.

[orangeblood]

The Major Strat Warming Event isn't forecast to start until 4-5 days from now....its a top down warming event that will start at the 10mb level over Siberia and works it way east and down into the lower stratosphere in the week 2 time frame...still have a few days until the models can nail this warming event down and its implications for the long term synoptic pattern.

Reason GFS backed off on extreme cold seems to be because it doesn't split the PV like it did yesterday.

[JDawg512]

I could care less about the cold, I just want the rain to return.

[weatherdude1108]

I could care less about the cold, I just want the rain to return.

AMEN!

Depressing.

[gpsnowman]

I could care less about the cold, I just want the rain to return.

I am with you to some extent. Rain is always welcome for it has rained in my area once since the tornado outbreak December 26th. Winter rules at the moment so a cold rain or frozen precip would be nice. The lack of rain is a little disturbing thus far for the year. Expected more across the state during an El Nino. But I have been chewing on Nicarette gum for to long, I want the real deal. No more teases, winter or bust!!!! No artificial replacements like the "cool fronts" we have witnessed in DFW this winter.

Seriously, I am trying to quit smoking. Again.

[orangeblood]

All models are all, surprisingly, very similar with a winter storm across the southern plains around Feb. 8-9th. Wouldn't be surprised if they lose the storm over the next couple of days but get it back in the 5-7 day time frame.

For all those complaining about no rain...I hope you all realize we just came off the wettest year IN RECORDED HISTORY, please keep in mind....we don't live in The Amazon!!

[Brent]

2nd run in a row:

[gpsnowman]

2nd run in a row:

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ ... snowsc.png

Looks like a bit more snowfall for DFW but the main purple blobs are retreating eastward from the previous post. Either way, it looks good.