Texas Winter 2015-2016

[JDawg512]

For all those complaining about no rain...I hope you all realize we just came off the wettest year IN RECORDED HISTORY, please keep in mind....we don't live in The Amazon!!

That doesn't negate the fact that the topsoil is drying out now or the fact that despite 2015 being the wettest on record, we still ended up having wildfires. It does us no good long term when we get one month of 5 to 10 inches then a month or two with less than an inch. Rainfall needs to be more consistent. We get way too much all at once then we have these extended dry spells in between. I'm simply hoping for a better pattern where we get manageable amounts of rain more frequently.

[dhweather]

For all those complaining about no rain...I hope you all realize we just came off the wettest year IN RECORDED HISTORY, please keep in mind....we don't live in The Amazon!!

That doesn't negate the fact that the topsoil is drying out now or the fact that despite 2015 being the wettest on record, we still ended up having wildfires. It does us no good long term when we get one month of 5 to 10 inches then a month or two with less than an inch. Rainfall needs to be more consistent. We get way too much all at once then we have these extended dry spells in between. I'm simply hoping for a better pattern where we get manageable amounts of rain more frequently.

AMEN!

0.83" of rain in Heath for January TOTAL. Second driest January in 6 years.

2011 1.82"
2012 6.35"
2013 3.12"
2014 0.60"
2015 3.44"
2016 0.83"

[hriverajr]

On the Bastardi Index.. He is not happy about the east coast... Favorable for us I would say :p

Are you still on wxman57's side.

I'm starting to leave it.

[Ntxw]

On the Bastardi Index.. He is not happy about the east coast... Favorable for us I would say :p

Are you still on wxman57's side.

I'm starting to leave it.

Welcome back to the good side! Working on the thermostat with some real cold availability in Canada. Euro pops heights up to the Canadian/Alaskan border with deep cold spilling south . Wind flow coming out of the Arctic

[orangeblood]

For all those complaining about no rain...I hope you all realize we just came off the wettest year IN RECORDED HISTORY, please keep in mind....we don't live in The Amazon!!

That doesn't negate the fact that the topsoil is drying out now or the fact that despite 2015 being the wettest on record, we still ended up having wildfires. It does us no good long term when we get one month of 5 to 10 inches then a month or two with less than an inch. Rainfall needs to be more consistent. We get way too much all at once then we have these extended dry spells in between. I'm simply hoping for a better pattern where we get manageable amounts of rain more frequently.

AMEN!

0.83" of rain in Heath for January TOTAL. Second driest January in 6 years.

2011 1.82"
2012 6.35"
2013 3.12"
2014 0.60"
2015 3.44"
2016 0.83"

Too wet, too dry, too cold, too warm....with it comes to the weather on this planet, there will ALWAYS be something to complain about.

[orangeblood]

Are you still on wxman57's side.

I'm starting to leave it.

Welcome back to the good side! Working on the thermostat with some real cold availability in Canada. Euro pops heights up to the Canadian/Alaskan border with deep cold spilling south

Strat Warming vs. the MJO...which one will win the day over the next few weeks ???? Euro and Canadian say SW, GFS is going with the MJO. Considering the GFS's track record with the MJO this season, it's an easy answer on which one to side with.

[dhweather]

the 12Z GFS has no freezes for Mesquite - lowest temp through 384 hours is 33. No rain through 10 days, 0.63" through 16 days.

[Ntxw]

Strat Warming vs. the MJO...which one will win the day over the next few weeks ???? Euro and Canadian say SW, GFS is going with the MJO. Considering the GFS's track record with the MJO this season, it's an easy answer on which one to side with.

If it was a standing MJO and non-moving in those phases I'd be more worried. 3/4 if stuck is no good, but it is a moving amplified MJO. Phases 5-6 is not terrible. Pacific convection can really pump up ridging to the right.

As for rain, I'd love for there to be some but it's winter. I'd rather have it in the spring and fall when in matters. The 1-2 inches of on and off spritzes does very little. Droughts starts and ends in the Spring. That's when you know the effects are more dramatic. To be honest I am hoping for a more subdued rain year, came with it last year was the one of the most deadly flooding and tornado year's for North Texas.

Majority of the tornado deaths of 2015 occured in NWS FW forecasting area, also the epicenter of the flooding rains against normals in the nation.

[srainhoutx]

On the Bastardi Index.. He is not happy about the east coast... Favorable for us I would say :p

Are you still on wxman57's side.

I'm starting to leave it.

Nice cold shortwave next weekend with a Coastal low developing via the Euro with a secondary shortwave arriving around the 8th/9th. Brrr...

[Ntxw]

Are you still on wxman57's side.

I'm starting to leave it.

Nice cold shortwave next weekend with a Coastal low developing via the Euro with a secondary shortwave arriving around the 8th/9th. Brrr...

That storm both the Euro and CMC is the leading edge of the amplified pattern.

[JDawg512]

Strat Warming vs. the MJO...which one will win the day over the next few weeks ???? Euro and Canadian say SW, GFS is going with the MJO. Considering the GFS's track record with the MJO this season, it's an easy answer on which one to side with.

As for rain, I'd love for there to be some but it's winter. I'd rather have it in the spring and fall when in matters. The 1-2 inches of on and off spritzes does very little. Droughts starts and ends in the Spring. That's when you know the effects are more dramatic. To be honest I am hoping for a more subdued rain year, came with it last year was the one of the most deadly flooding and tornado year's for North Texas.

Majority of the tornado deaths of 2015 occured in NWS FW forecasting area, also the epicenter of the flooding rains against normals in the nation.

Oh I agree with you about the most important time being Spring. My biggest concern though is when it finally gets below freezing here in my immediate area (which has yet to do so this winter), I'd like the soil to have enough moisture so my plants don't end up with root damage. At this point I'm hand watering daily the more sensitive ones and every couple of days for the others and hope that's enough. Winter can be almost as bad as summer in terms of evaporation especially when you have a succession of dry fronts.

[Portastorm]

All I know is this ... wxman57 is running today's weather in Austin. We just hit 86 degrees at Camp Mabry (KATT), especially setting a new high temp record for today. Previous was 83 in 1911. 86 freakin' degrees on January 31st!! Good grief ...

[Brent]

the 12Z GFS has no freezes for Mesquite - lowest temp through 384 hours is 33. No rain through 10 days, 0.63" through 16 days.

Lol it really abandoned the cold and snow I see...

Find it hard to believe there'd be no freezes...

[Ntxw]

18z GFS is a lot stronger and further north with the ridge and near 1050mb high coming down the Canadian prairies. One run that far out doesn't mean much but what it tells us is that it's not fixed on a solution and waffling more than the other globals.

[Rgv20]

All I know is this ... wxman57 is running today's weather in Austin. We just hit 86 degrees at Camp Mabry (KATT), especially setting a new high temp record for today. Previous was 83 in 1911. 86 freakin' degrees on January 31st!! Good grief ...

Had a high of 94!!! With the dewpoint in the low 40s it felt kind of nice outside.....ok back to winter!

[gpsnowman]

A bit off topic, but what has happened to Saskatchewan Screamer? Haven't heard from her in a while.

[wxman57]

All I know is this ... wxman57 is running today's weather in Austin. We just hit 86 degrees at Camp Mabry (KATT), especially setting a new high temp record for today. Previous was 83 in 1911. 86 freakin' degrees on January 31st!! Good grief ...

Sorry about that, Portastorm. I left the thermostat on "hot" when we left for our bike ride at 11:45am. Had a nice 40-mile ride across the city. It was a tad cool. The tailwind felt good the initial 20 miles to Beck's Prime. It didn't feel as good in our faces on the way back.

12Z Euro has a bit of snow in the northern Hill Country to the Panhandle on the 6th, but has the area above freezing the whole time. Nothing on the 9th-10th now. GFS says "no significant cold through the next couple of weeks", not even a light freeze for Houston or Dallas. I wouldn't be too optimistic about snow in the Austin or Dallas area over the next 10 days.

Today's route:
http://www.mapmyride.com/workout/1330040827

[wxman57]

Had a high of 94!!! With the dewpoint in the low 40s it felt kind of nice outside.....ok back to winter!

Quit bragging! Some people have all the luck...

[orangeblood]

18z GFS is a lot stronger and further north with the ridge and near 1050mb high coming down the Canadian prairies. One run that far out doesn't mean much but what it tells us is that it's not fixed on a solution and waffling more than the other globals.

There's almost no doubt we'll get a - EPO/-AO combo out of this but how strong will the PNA become ?

All models do eventually crash the Big North Pole Arctic HP into the lower 48 towards the end of week 2

[hriverajr]

Had a high of 94!!! With the dewpoint in the low 40s it felt kind of nice outside.....ok back to winter!

Quit bragging! Some people have all the luck...

He won't be bragging in the summer when Temps are in the upper 90s with dew points in the mid 70s