Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Big O]

One of members on another site, with a locale similar to ours, has always stated the following regarding chances for wintry precipitation: "The best combo for us is -EPO (-AO is also helpful), combined with a west based +PNA." Recently, he added as follows: "To get that cold air south, we need the W Coast ridge to build, usually from the SW to the NE into Canada to tap into the frigid air and send it south directly. That is, go from a -PNA to a +PNA. The overall period PNA is near neutral or slightly positive. A very strong +PNA would probably send the cold air to the SE CONUS."

In summary, it appears that we need a -EPO and the PNA must go from negative to slightly positive (if the PNA is highly positive, most of the cold goes towards the SE CONUS). Moreover, the "slightly positive" PNA must be west-based.

Anyone have any thoughts on a "west based +PNA" and this view of the needed teleconnections for wintry precipitation in our area?

[Ntxw]

A PNA ridge just off the west coast, almost slightly -PNA. That digs a system into the southwest. Too strong PNA the ridge pokes out into the Rockies and mean trof position is east coast, we get glancing blows, and warm up quickly once ridge progresses out.

Just go back to the past several days of runs and you will see clear the relationship of cold runs = ridge off the coast, milder runs = ridge into the west.

[Big O]

Agreed. At the time you were posting, I reviewed this individual's earlier post on another forum and edited my post.

Thanks for the response.

[Ntxw]

How on earth can the heights and pattern show what the GFS is showing and the HP isnt even over 1040? Lol.

Lack of surface cold, low level. -10s and -20s is not too bitter cold for Canada. We need large areas of -30s and -40s or colder. This was a big problem in 1982-1983 and 1997-1998. If you reanalyze those years at 500mb you see a lot of blocking and favorability, but the reality was at the surface there was little cold. Big HP domes deepen over bitter cold.

[dhweather]

How will he feel when the GFS/Euro has us in the 80's on the next run?

[aggiecutter]

[wxman57]

The cold air continues to fade away in the 12Z GFS run. Coldest of about 27 in the D-FW area on the 10th with 31 in Houston. It does have some snow in the western Hill Country on the 6th, but has surface temps above freezing. Very suspicious. Colder air is shunted even more to the north and east.

[srainhoutx]

Cold pocket aloft Saturday/early Sunday may produce an isolated sleet pellet or two near SE Texas via the Euro. Nothing to write home about though.

[Brent]

The cold air continues to fade away in the 12Z GFS run. Coldest of about 27 in the D-FW area on the 10th with 31 in Houston. It does have some snow in the western Hill Country on the 6th, but has surface temps above freezing. Very suspicious. Colder air is shunted even more to the north and east.

At least there's a fantasy rain event at 300+ hours...

Where did this winter go so wrong? January finished not only warmer but drier than normal up here...

[hriverajr]

The cold air continues to fade away in the 12Z GFS run. Coldest of about 27 in the D-FW area on the 10th with 31 in Houston. It does have some snow in the western Hill Country on the 6th, but has surface temps above freezing. Very suspicious. Colder air is shunted even more to the north and east.

I hope it rains every bike ride day in the spring and summer. Your just enjoying this too much

[wxman57]

At least there's a fantasy rain event at 300+ hours...

Where did this winter go so wrong? January finished not only warmer but drier than normal up here...

I wouldn't believe any model beyond 3-4 days at this point (unless it's forecasting hot weather).

It's just hard to get really cold air across Texas, given the active southern storm track and lack of phasing between the northern flow across Canada and the flow across the southern U.S. It's a good pattern to take the cold air SE across Hudson Bay to the Great lakes/NE U.S. but not to Texas.

[texas1836]

Guess I'll start planting my garden the last week of February. Should be 83' by then.

[Brent]

8th driest January at Waco... now I always knew the cold was gonna be a crapshoot with the raging el nino... but for it to not to be even somewhat wet especially after the fall we had is pretty shocking.,

[wxman57]

I hope it rains every bike ride day in the spring and summer. Your just enjoying this too much

It doesn't have to rain. Highs in the low 50s next Sat/Sun will definitely keep me off the bike, even if it wasn't also raining. That's miserable riding weather. Following weekend looks nice (upper 60s to 70), though I don't believe the models that far out.

I measured nearly 4" of rain in January, by the way.

[weatherdude1108]

The cold air continues to fade away in the 12Z GFS run. Coldest of about 27 in the D-FW area on the 10th with 31 in Houston. It does have some snow in the western Hill Country on the 6th, but has surface temps above freezing. Very suspicious. Colder air is shunted even more to the north and east.

At least there's a fantasy rain event at 300+ hours...

Where did this winter go so wrong? January finished not only warmer but drier than normal up here...

Same here. We can (or most of us in Texas) can call January the "month without a Winter" and lots of Winter teases.

[hriverajr]

The cold air continues to fade away in the 12Z GFS run. Coldest of about 27 in the D-FW area on the 10th with 31 in Houston. It does have some snow in the western Hill Country on the 6th, but has surface temps above freezing. Very suspicious. Colder air is shunted even more to the north and east.

At least there's a fantasy rain event at 300+ hours...

Where did this winter go so wrong? January finished not only warmer but drier than normal up here...

Same here. We can (or most of us in Texas) can call January the "month without a Winter" and lots of Winter teases.

I almost bought into the hype, but honestly this winter has been pretty consistent . We need a big high for any real shot.

[weatherdude1108]

I hope it rains every bike ride day in the spring and summer. Your just enjoying this too much

It doesn't have to rain. Highs in the low 50s next Sat/Sun will definitely keep me off the bike, even if it wasn't also raining. That's miserable riding weather. Following weekend looks nice (upper 60s to 70), though I don't believe the models that far out.

I measured nearly 4" of rain in January, by the way.

Yay for you!

Seriously, glad you got in on some beneficial waters. Could you send some this way?

[weatherdude1108]

At least there's a fantasy rain event at 300+ hours...

Where did this winter go so wrong? January finished not only warmer but drier than normal up here...

Same here. We can (or most of us in Texas) can call January the "month without a Winter" and lots of Winter teases.

I almost bought into the hype, but honestly this winter has been pretty consistent . We need a big high for any real shot.

Yeah, I guess yesterday is what stuck out for me this month (86 degrees at Camp Mabry). It shattered the record of 83 back in 1911 according to the news outlets. It is fresh on the mind. But you're right, it has been pretty consistent overall, although on the drier side of a normal January, even for dry January standards. Slightly above for temperatures.


STATION: AUSTIN CAMP MABRY
MONTH: JANUARY
YEAR: 2016
LATITUDE: 30 17 N
LONGITUDE: 97 42 W

[TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA]

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 51.9 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 0.34
DPTR FM NORMAL: 0.4 DPTR FM NORMAL: -1.88
HIGHEST: 86 ON 31 GRTST 24HR 0.20 ON 2- 2
LOWEST: 31 ON 23


STATION: AUSTIN BERGSTROM
MONTH: JANUARY
YEAR: 2016
LATITUDE: 30 13 N
LONGITUDE: 97 40 W

[TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA]

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 49.3 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 1.04
DPTR FM NORMAL: 0.1 DPTR FM NORMAL: -1.16
HIGHEST: 80 ON 31 GRTST 24HR 0.64 ON 6- 6
LOWEST: 25 ON 23

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=ewx

[wxman57]

With the slightly more active southern storm track over the next few weeks I'd expect another 2-3 west Gulf lows to form. Typically, the greatest moisture is confined to coastal counties, though. It's often hard to get much precip in Austin and/or Dallas from such a low, though Austin may get a good bit more precip than Dallas over the coming weeks.

[gboudx]

Looking for the silver lining, all I can find is the utility bills shouldn't be too terrible for January. Didn't need the A/C and the heater didn't run excessively. However, I have a large stash of firewood that I may not get the use. I wish more of it was pecan than oak and ash. At least I could cut up the pecan and use it in my Big Green Egg.