Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Yukon Cornelius]

Man, last time I read over the posts it appeared we were finally going to have winter and now it seems like the general consensus is winter is cancelled again. These models/forecasts must be as bipolar as a few ex girlfriends of mine..

[weatherdude1108]

Man, last time I read over the posts it appeared we were finally going to have winter and now it seems like the general consensus is winter is cancelled again. These models/forecasts must be as bipolar as a few ex girlfriends of mine..

[Ntxw]

8th driest January at Waco... now I always knew the cold was gonna be a crapshoot with the raging el nino... but for it to not to be even somewhat wet especially after the fall we had is pretty shocking.,

From about August of last year till now, cold has been very lackluster, most months have been above normal #1982 #1997

[wxman57]

I thought we might have a great chance of several snow/ice events in Houston this winter, but I gave up on that several weeks ago. It's quite surprising, given the strong El Nino. Perhaps the southern stream became TOO strong this winter? The Arctic air can't penetrate the deep south. Coldest temps in Houston the next 10 days according to the GFS is 31 across north Houston on the 10th. The Euro has 41F for that same date.

Well, on the bright side, the temperature just reached 90F in the lower valley and along the Rio Grande. If we're not going to have winter, it might as well be summer...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I was going to ask, why isnt the cold air pooling up north? Is it moving around too quickly? Transient? Last few years we had no problem building those highs. Were the hp's that came down the last few years much slower as they came down into the lower 48? If we had this setup two years ago we woud be talking about big time cold. Not sure why its so 'warm' in the arcitic. Need those HP's to build!

[Brent]

I really do think the el nino is TOO strong... a weaker el nino would have likely had more cold build up, more winter storms, more rain, etc..

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS has my area reaching 29 around the 10th. If that's the best we can do at a hard freeze this winter it might as well be spring. I'm starting to get the gardening itch after the spring weather this past weekend.

[gpsnowman]

I really do think the el nino is TOO strong... a weaker el nino would have likely had more cold build up, more winter storms, more rain, etc..

The difference between the 09-10 Nino and the one currently is night and day. That winter was the 8th coldest on record, I believe. A good portion of that winter was under almost daily cloud cover with reinforcing fronts every few days. And of course the precipitation amounts were much higher. I saw seven different snowfall episodes ranging from a dusting to the greatest snowfall in DFW history. We still have some time but hope is fading fast for anything this season.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

09-10 Nino the center of the cold was focussed more in the middle of the Pacific.

[Lagreeneyes03]

El Nino March and April tends to be very cold following a nino winter.

The way things are going, it probably won't be that way. At least I hope not. Last spring was miserable. Here's hoping we are above or at normal at that point. Could the same "Too Strong" El Nino that's not giving us the winter cold/snow as predicted also play tricks on the Spring weather and bring an out of the norm pattern as well?

[Brent]

I really do think the el nino is TOO strong... a weaker el nino would have likely had more cold build up, more winter storms, more rain, etc..

The difference between the 09-10 Nino and the one currently is night and day. That winter was the 8th coldest on record, I believe. A good portion of that winter was under almost daily cloud cover with reinforcing fronts every few days. And of course the precipitation amounts were much higher. I saw seven different snowfall episodes ranging from a dusting to the greatest snowfall in DFW history. We still have some time but hope is fading fast for anything this season.

I knew that 09/10 analog was too good to be true... we do live in Texas afterall, but I still expected SOMETHING. Not even a hard freeze, or another flood, or even constant rain events... nothing... As it stands now the highlight of the winter is gonna be the tornadoes...

At this point I just hope the wet pattern makes a return before its too late...

[Ntxw]

I was going to ask, why isnt the cold air pooling up north? Is it moving around too quickly? Transient? Last few years we had no problem building those highs. Were the hp's that came down the last few years much slower as they came down into the lower 48? If we had this setup two years ago we woud be talking about big time cold. Not sure why its so 'warm' in the arcitic. Need those HP's to build!

Very strong Aleutian low connected to the very strong El Nino. When cold tries to build, mild air from the Pacific (at the surface) mixes in. It may not seem much day to day but for a season when so much storminess hits the Pacific NW, 90 day rainfall can show this, moist air is mild air. In short, the strong Nino overpowered the NPac warm pool. 2-3C above normal in the tropics is exponentially stronger than 2-3C above in the GOA, more heat energy. I'd guess so.

[Ntxw]

Despite the issues its not like its going to be warm, cold in fact. It would just be a lot colder if the ridge is a bit further west, don't be surprised if the models bring back what they showed a few days ago in closer range. Snow or ice or rain we have to take it one system at a time!

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like the Austin/San Antonio area will be getting a nice snowfall by February 11th. Can't wait!

[Brent]

LOL hot off the 18z GFS... fairly widespread rain on Saturday and Sunday now... actually some areas are inside the 540 thickness but it's rain

and a cold rain at that... with temperatures in the upper 30s/low 40s... I don't know if those 50s and 60s this weekend are gonna verify...

[orangeblood]

Despite the issues its not like its going to be warm, cold in fact. It would just be a lot colder if the ridge is a bit further west, don't be surprised if the models bring back what they showed a few days ago in closer range. Snow or ice or rain we have to take it one system at a time!

Yep, we see it time and time again...models lose storms during this time frame 5-8 day range then pick it back up, trending towards it's orginal solution

[Brent]

So close lol

[Portastorm]

Guys, it has already snowed this winter in Saudi Arabia and sleeted for the first time in recorded history in Okinawa, Japan.

I won't remind you (or me) what we have gotten this winter in comparison.

[ouamber]

Geeze...Oklahoma continues to be a snow hole and we are getting desperate! Here is Tulsa, we are waaay below normal snow totals, and fires are becoming an issue. At this point, I'm just ready for some moisture of any kind. Praying for some storm to finally let us all cash in...sick of it going to our NW and SE! We were told this would be a great snowy winter for the South...yah, that hasn't happened at all! So, y'all in Texas are not alone!

[Brent]

Guys, it has already snowed this winter in Saudi Arabia and sleeted for the first time in recorded history in Okinawa, Japan.

I won't remind you (or me) what we have gotten this winter in comparison.

Snowed in Florida too... trust me... this so-called winter has been nothing but a horrific nightmare around here...

if something doesn't change and soon... it's probably gonna be the worst in my 22 years of memory between here and Alabama. I've seen plenty of snowless winters... but never one quite like this.