Texas Winter 2015-2016

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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2941 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Feb 01, 2016 6:42 pm

Just to add insult to injury, a lot of spring and summer birds are starting to show up here around the red river, including hummingbirds. Not a good sign at all for any winter weather or cold.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2942 Postby dhweather » Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:24 pm

Where's that Winter Cancel button.......


Image


Oh, that was easy. :wink:



Hope is fading, the days are getting longer, the angle of the sun is increasing, the window of opportunity will close soon. That said, let me remind you of last year, bust, bust, bust, bust, oh look, 4" of snow!
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2943 Postby EnnisTx » Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:40 pm

We have a long way to go in North Texas before Winter is over.... Keep the faith fair weather fan's :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2944 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:57 pm

dhweather wrote:Where's that Winter Cancel button.......



Oh, that was easy. :wink:



Hope is fading, the days are getting longer, the angle of the sun is increasing, the window of opportunity will close soon. That said, let me remind you of last year, bust, bust, bust, bust, oh look, 4" of snow!



I'm glad I don't have to remind you...you posted the exact same thing last year at this time. Did u learn a lesson or does your pessimistic attitude usually take over ?
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2945 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Feb 01, 2016 10:00 pm

The high over California and the blocking high near the pole need to merge into one big high for the cold to really comedown. The air is modified by pacific air. I no better than to ask why the highs arent bigger in cases like these after all that you guys have taught me, the air orgin is not in the arctic. The 00z from saturday is an example of how they are different. Still have some time if this is going to play out. Need them to link up.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2946 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 02, 2016 8:00 am

00Z Euro has a raging snowstorm across the Hill Country on Saturday morning. Below is a total accumulated snowfall graphic for the storm. Stay safe out there this weekend!

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2947 Postby Portastorm » Tue Feb 02, 2016 8:21 am

wxman57 wrote:00Z Euro has a raging snowstorm across the Hill Country on Saturday morning. Below is a total accumulated snowfall graphic for the storm. Stay safe out there this weekend!

http://oi64.tinypic.com/290r7ew.jpg


Local Home Depot is already sold out of snow removal equipment!

Meanwhile, the lead met at the Portastorm Weather Center saw his six o'clock shadow in the mirror, so there will be an early spring in scenic southwest Travis County.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2948 Postby hriverajr » Tue Feb 02, 2016 8:26 am

Haha, that's just plainly twisting the knife.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2949 Postby hriverajr » Tue Feb 02, 2016 8:48 am

I did get my afternoon of snow. Even though the ground was too warm for it to stick.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2950 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 02, 2016 9:00 am

Joe Bastardi seems to have put up the white flag. I've never seen him so deflated in Feb. This big El Nino has taken a big toll on him

The Groundhog did not see his shadow, which means early spring
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2951 Postby davidiowx » Tue Feb 02, 2016 9:30 am

wxman57 wrote:00Z Euro has a raging snowstorm across the Hill Country on Saturday morning. Below is a total accumulated snowfall graphic for the storm. Stay safe out there this weekend!

http://oi64.tinypic.com/290r7ew.jpg


I just spit my coffee all over my desk... Great way to start out the day!
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2952 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:05 am

Maybe we will get lucky and have a surprise winter event or two in late Feb or early March like we had last year. If I remember right the first part of February was pretty warm last year as well.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2953 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:07 am

I'm as much of a Winter rah rah fan as anyone, but this Super El Nino has pretty much shut the door on any kind of winter across the mid south. Other than the big snow storm to the hit the east coast, this winter was been pretty much calm. No major Ice storms, your basic winter weather across the great lakes reign but really nothing to write home over. Even the west coast hasn't had as much rain as it was predicted in all the Winter season outlooks. The fact that this is a 50 to 100 year event and the lack of solid data from prior Super events pretty much left us going off the next closest El Ninos, and those have pretty much been wrong. Models out past 3-4 days have busted more times than not, and even when we get with in the 2-3 day range things seem to fall flat.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2954 Postby Portastorm » Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:18 am

CaptinCrunch wrote:I'm as much of a Winter rah rah fan as anyone, but this Super El Nino has pretty much shut the door on any kind of winter across the mid south. Other than the big snow storm to the hit the east coast, this winter was been pretty much calm. No major Ice storms, your basic winter weather across the great lakes reign but really nothing to write home over. Even the west coast hasn't had as much rain as it was predicted in all the Winter season outlooks. The fact that this is a 50 to 100 year event and the lack of solid data from prior Super events pretty much left us going off the next closest El Ninos, and those have pretty much been wrong. Models out past 3-4 days have busted more times than not, and even when we get with in the 2-3 day range things seem to fall flat.


Excellent summation of what has happened over the last few months. The excessive rainfall events in south central Texas really shut off after Halloween. We had several opportunities at rain since then but nothing like earlier in 2015. Outside of that and the holiday tornadoes in the DFW area ... and maybe that one winter storm around Thanksgiving in west Texas ... this "winter" has been pathetic.

Those of us in the Austin area are used to pathetic winters so this season doesn't really seem all that unusual. It may be tougher on you North Texas folks. Last year was worse for us as y'all had several events and all we got was a tenth of an inch of freezing drizzle here and there and one predicted snow event which failed in an epic-like manner.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2955 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:34 am

wxman57 wrote:00Z Euro has a raging snowstorm across the Hill Country on Saturday morning. Below is a total accumulated snowfall graphic for the storm. Stay safe out there this weekend!


I'll be in Leakey for the weekend. BRING IT.
Last edited by TeamPlayersBlue on Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2956 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:36 am

Last year the El Nino was very weak so by Feb essentially it was already down to neutral readings or El Nada. This year it's Feb and it's still raging with weekly readings of 2.5C! Most Nino's can only dream of that value even in peak of Oct-Nov no less Feb. That's not very rapid at all, majority of El Nino's see a rapid decline from January to Feb. But yeah around this time last year wxman57 was boasting of 70s for mid Feb which did happen and the pattern flipped after the 20th. Does not mean it will happen this year, but doesn't mean it won't either.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2957 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:38 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
wxman57 wrote:00Z Euro has a raging snowstorm across the Hill Country on Saturday morning. Below is a total accumulated snowfall graphic for the storm. Stay safe out there this weekend!



I'll be in Leakey for the weekend. BRING IT.

Just saw MJO poking its head out in the 4 region. Not good. Not good at all. Dont normally, or ever do this but i might be circling that winter cancel bandwagon if thats the case.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2958 Postby JDawg512 » Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:40 am

I've been looking over the latest updates for the system coming in Friday night/Sat. Given the overall lack of confidence in forecasts beyond 3 days. What are the thoughts on the rainfall potential? It's starting to look a little better but I'm not getting my hopes up.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2959 Postby Portastorm » Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:50 am

JDawg512 wrote:I've been looking over the latest updates for the system coming in Friday night/Sat. Given the overall lack of confidence in forecasts beyond 3 days. What are the thoughts on the rainfall potential? It's starting to look a little better but I'm not getting my hopes up.


Seems like the trend is on an upswing in terms of rainfall potential. At least that is what I am seeing/reading.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2960 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:57 am

Interesting at least.
Image
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