South Texas Storms wrote:Portastorm wrote:JDawg512 wrote:I've been looking over the latest updates for the system coming in Friday night/Sat. Given the overall lack of confidence in forecasts beyond 3 days. What are the thoughts on the rainfall potential? It's starting to look a little better but I'm not getting my hopes up.
Seems like the trend is on an upswing in terms of rainfall potential. At least that is what I am seeing/reading.
It was trending upwards as of the 0z model runs last night, however the 6z and now the 12z GFS is showing hardly any rain across central Texas with this next system.
Sigh...the flow pattern is just too fast right now not allowing any systems to really dig into Mexico like we need.
EWX seems to have backed off on the QPF and rain percentages this weekend (shocking).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
323 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
DRY...WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET AS LOW-LEVEL MIXING CEASES. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE
HILL COUNTRY. WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 50S OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S HILL
COUNTRY TO LOWER 30S COASTAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
&&
[b].LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO EAST TEXAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS RETURNS ON FRIDAY AND THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.FOR SATURDAY...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BOTH TRENDED TOWARD A MORE OPEN TROUGH INSTEAD OF A
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THIS TROUGH REMAINS OPEN OR DEVELOPS
INTO A CLOSED LOW.
FOR NOW...WE WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES BY
ROUGHLY 10-20% OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LOOKING
RATHER MEAGER...WITH TOTALS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH.TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION EITHER LATE SUNDAY OR MIDDAY MONDAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS.
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE HILL COUNTRY...SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING. THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS ARE
STILL GUSTY OVER THE MENTIONED AREAS. IN ADDITION...RH/S ARE BELOW
OR VERY CLOSE TO 20%. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT RH/S WILL
REMAIN LOW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
FARTHER EAST INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...NEAR CRITICAL RH/S HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED.HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA.
ON WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
DESPITE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM
RH/S NEAR 20% ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. THIS COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
THE MENTIONED AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.[/b]
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