Texas Winter 2015-2016

[hriverajr]

If it's any consolation, I think the rains will return late winter into spring. Will probably get some cold Canadian air too (when it's too late)

[orangeblood]

I'm starting to really despise this +PNA. It has been a thorn in several storms path and moisture return.

The PNA took our winter away.

Hey we're only 3 days into our best winter month.....Pay attention to the system around the middle of the month, it's cutting underneath the big west coast ridge and will have some Arctic Air to tap into

[wxman57]

12Z GFS dropped any hint of snow for Texas with that mid-month storm. Instead, it has Texas warming with southerly winds and the snow confined to Kansas and northward. Maybe some rain for TX ahead of the front, but no precip in the cold air. Of course, the GFS has never been wrong beyond 10 days yet this year...

[TheProfessor]

Looks like my best chance of snow will be in a NW flow, which doesn't help you guys at all. I think a Neutral PNA would have benefited me a lot more.

[Tireman4]

12Z GFS dropped any hint of snow for Texas with that mid-month storm. Instead, it has Texas warming with southerly winds and the snow confined to Kansas and northward. Maybe some rain for TX ahead of the front, but no precip in the cold air. Of course, the GFS has never been wrong beyond 10 days yet this year...

Nais. I mean just nails..lol

[wxman57]

Ryan Maue just tweeted this graphic from the 12Z GFS showing the core of cold air moving over the southeast U.S. next week. We only get a small piece of it in east Texas. 12Z Euro is similar. Flow just isn't very good for driving any really cold air southward down the Plains over the next few weeks. And if it doesn't happen by late February, then it's not likely to happen this winter.

[Texas Snowman]

Late February or forget about it? Maybe in Houston and across most of Central Texas. But as I've noted in previous winters, that idea doesn't float up here along the Red River (I'm 75 miles north of downtown Dallas).

This was my deck on March 21, 2010. And it is certainly not the only good March snowfall that we've had in Grayson County since the year 2000. So I'll hang on to hope for another snowfall (we've already had one light dusting here this winter) before the current season comes to an end.

[wxman57]

I wasn't talking about Oklahoma, I was talking about Dallas to Houston.

Yes, we CAN get cold and snowy in March, but it's going to take a significant pattern shift.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Late February or forget about it? Maybe in Houston and across most of Central Texas. But as I've noted in previous winters, that idea doesn't float up here along the Red River (I'm 75 miles north of downtown Dallas).

This was my deck on March 21, 2010. And it is certainly not the only good March snowfall that we've had in Grayson County since the year 2000. So I'll hang on to hope for another snowfall (we've already had one light dusting here this winter) before the current season comes to an end.

https://scontent-lax3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hp ... e=57439848

I agree. The end of February and first half of March last year brought us a few good winter events. It ain't over until I hear that singing. As weird as everything has been weather wise this year, nothing will surprise me.

[Texas Snowman]

Oklahoma, huh? Those are fighting words in my family. \m/

I guess you're absolutely DETERMINED to win the Oscar for weather villain of the year, aren't you?

[Brent]

I feel y'all on the wanting to be optimistic about the end of February and early March... but we can't even get rain events lately so until that starts happening it's hard for me to be too optimistic about snow chances.

[Portastorm]

I feel yall on the wanting to be optimistic about the end of February and early March... but we can't even get rain events lately so until that starts happening it's hard for me to be too optimistic about snow chances.

We can't even get something to watch TWO WEEKS OUT! and have dhweather give us his famous "Cat 5 in the Gulf" retort.

I honestly see nothing in the indices or models which give cause for hope. Sorry. Just being honest. But I won't fly the white flag of surrender for a few more weeks. Something *could* always change.

[wxman57]

Oklahoma, huh? Those are fighting words in my family. \m/

I guess you're absolutely DETERMINED to win the Oscar for weather villain of the year, aren't you?

Aw, that's not nice - and after I went through all the trouble of making you a new avatar...

[Portastorm]

Oh ... oh ... that's it. Time to throw the flag.



"Personal Foul. Unsportsmanlike Conduct against wxman57. 15 yard penalty. First down."

[Brent]

I feel yall on the wanting to be optimistic about the end of February and early March... but we can't even get rain events lately so until that starts happening it's hard for me to be too optimistic about snow chances.

We can't even get something to watch TWO WEEKS OUT! and have dhweather give us his famous "Cat 5 in the Gulf" retort.

I honestly see nothing in the indices or models which give cause for hope. Sorry. Just being honest. But I won't fly the white flag of surrender for a few more weeks. Something *could* always change.

Agreed... I keep looking at model runs for signs of hope... there was some indications of a big rain event around Valentine's Day, now the GFS has just 0.3" of rain here... stuff like this gives me no confidence in anything eventful happening... and any cold(if it even happens) is short-lived and nothing we haven't already seen...

above normal precip and below normal temps... both of them are headed for disaster...

[Ntxw]

Im throwing in the white flag. Its going to snow in the deep south again (GA, NC, SC) with the dry storm crossing us this weekend.

All bow to the Super El Nino. Yo Soy the Nino.

Btw Jan indices indicate the nino was stronger than in Oct thus peak was like NDJ and should be higher than the 2.3 that matched 1997.

1982/1997 had appreciable snow in Abilene, Lubbock, Midland but little to none in DFW. Looks like we continue that trend with the supers.

[Brent]

So... when do we move to the spring thread?

So far my old hometown in Alabama has only had a flizzard... but if they get a real snow(a place that averages less snow than DFW) I'm seriously gonna find a ledge...

[weatherdude1108]

Adding injury to insult. I'm confused. I guess Super Ninos are not the way to go.

FXUS64 KEWX 032131
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
331 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...GIVING THE REGION
OUR FIRST DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN SEVERAL DAYS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RELATIVELY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO GIVE US THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH MOST SPOTS BELOW FREEZING...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 20S IN THE HILL COUNTRY TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN
PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
PROVIDED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND WHERE
THEY ARE TODAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ELEVATED AS WINDS REMAIN BELOW
10 MPH DESPITE MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY RETURN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LEE
TROUGH COMING OFF OF THE ROCKIES TO OUR NORTH...WHICH WILL HELP
INCREASE RH VALUES ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT MODELS CONTINUED A DRIER...CLEARER...AND THUS
WARMER TREND. THIS...COMBINED WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH
INADEQUATE MOISTURE...HAVE RESULTED IN DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM 6-18Z SATURDAY
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. DOWNSLOPING WINDS
ON SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...THIS WEEKEND AS
THESE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH 10 KT WINDS.

AN AMPLIFIED THROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TO OUR EAST WILL
PULL A LARGE SCALE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THAT
WILL CAUSE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD MIN RH VALUES
BELOW 20 PERCENT. IF THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM HOLDS...THIS WOULD
LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY. A HIGH OVER LOW BLOCK...OR REX BLOCK...WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN US FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK TO KEEP SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS IN A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED LOW RH VALUES WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS CAUSING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE WEAK
LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AND REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST. CONSIDERING THAT ENERGY
RELEASE COMPONENTS ARE ALREADY ABOVE NORMAL AND INCREASING...FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY BECOME GREATER NEXT WEEK.

[gpsnowman]

This is one reason I chose Santa Fe for our spring break trip. At least some snow might still be around town and maybe even a March snow could fall while visiting. Certainly the higher elevations will still have some snow. Either way seeing some is possible. Got to get my snow fix!!!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The MJO is ruining this winter. I get the MJO, but not entirely when it comes to overwhelming Nino. Apparently, its not even something that usually shows its head during El nino. Can we at least get some good rain storms for nino?! Lol