Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

Last winter it was mostly a dud until the +PNA broke down after Feb 20th. Then the -PNA gave us a great 2 weeks into March. Until that happens the cockroach +PNA is going to slide things east. Lets hope it breaks down again.

Daily PNA in 2015 during the shift

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2015  2 11  0.702
2015  2 12  0.806
2015  2 13  0.973
2015  2 14  1.119
2015  2 15  1.194
2015  2 16  1.333
2015  2 17  1.320
2015  2 18  1.261
2015  2 19  0.924
2015  2 20  0.563
2015  2 21  0.295
2015  2 22  0.062
2015  2 23 -0.209
2015  2 24 -0.119
2015  2 25 -0.139
2015  2 26 -0.482
2015  2 27 -0.722
2015  2 28 -1.133
2015  3  1 -2.079
2015  3  2 -1.937
2015  3  3 -1.964
2015  3  4 -1.853
2015  3  5 -1.390
2015  3  6 -1.245
2015  3  7 -1.319
2015  3  8 -1.224
2015  3  9 -0.969
2015  3 10 -0.437
2015  3 11  0.026
2015  3 12  0.383
2015  3 13  0.735
2015  3 14  1.075
2015  3 15  1.012

Biggest winter event prior to that December 2013

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2013 12  1 -0.217
2013 12  2 -0.173
2013 12  3 -0.285
2013 12  4 -0.617
2013 12  5 -0.938
2013 12  6 -0.902
2013 12  7 -1.071
2013 12  8 -1.249
2013 12  9 -1.085
2013 12 10 -1.018

Prior to that was Super Bowl 2 weeks in 2011

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2011  2  1  0.908
2011  2  2  0.683
2011  2  3  0.381
2011  2  4  0.041
2011  2  5 -0.068
2011  2  6 -0.016
2011  2  7 -0.075
2011  2  8 -0.082
2011  2  9 -0.214
2011  2 10 -0.115
2011  2 11 -0.301
2011  2 12 -0.647
2011  2 13 -0.993
2011  2 14 -1.227
2011  2 15 -1.404

I'm starting to get a trend here. Also the rains started shutting off once the PNA spiked positive from late November. NW flow ftl

[JDawg512]

The MJO is ruining this winter. I get the MJO, but not entirely when it comes to overwhelming Nino. Apparently, its not even something that usually shows its head during El nino. Can we at least get some good rain storms for nino?! Lol

It shouldn't be or at least in theory the MJO should be non existent for an El Niño this powerful. It's been a pain to say the least. This winter has only solidified my stance that using historical analogs has and will continue to become less and less useful. Expect the unexpected and hope we can have some semblance of "normalcy". I'm getting worried about what the rest of 2016 has in store.

I ran across this very interesting presentation done this past Dec about blocking patterns on YouTube.

https://youtu.be/11G2XyGm-DU

[wxman57]

The GFS has been quite consistent in predicting temps somewhere from the single digits to the 70s for Valentine's Day weekend. Looks like it has that weekend nailed...

[Ralph's Weather]

Got my cold and snow here in Las Vegas, NM, -2 here.

[TheProfessor]

I Had a 30 degree drop in a few hours yesterday evening, I didn't enjoy the upper 70s in Texas last weekend, but I sure did like the upper 50s here in Ohio yesterday.

[Ntxw]

A little off topic but meteorologically important. A little system we all heard about in October that brought back rains (Patricia) reanalysis is out. It has been bumped up to 185knots or 215mph sustained. Pressure was dropped to 872mb. In comparison lowest ever measured was 870 by super typhoon tip.

Patricia makes Wilma seem like a chew toy (jokingly).

[TheProfessor]

A little off topic but meteorologically important. A little system we all heard about in October that brought back rains (Patricia) reanalysis is out. It has been bumped up to 185knots or 215mph sustained. Pressure was dropped to 872mb. In comparison lowest ever measured was 870 by super typhoon tip.

Patricia makes Wilma seem like a chew toy (jokingly).

I still can't wrap my head around on how large Super Typhoon Tip was, there's one map on google that shows that with a correct landfall in the U.S Tip's rain bands would have stretched from Dallas to NYC.

[TheProfessor]

I also can't imagine what Patricia would have done had she been in the Gulf of Mexico under the same condition as the Eastern pacific, there would not have been any mountains in the U.S to provide a rapid weakening like what happened in Mexico.

[wxman57]

OK, let's get back to discussing this unbearable Texas winter in this thread.

[Ntxw]

OK, let's get back to discussing this unbearable Texas winter in this thread.

What winter? Its all happening east of the MS river next week and the PNA ridge is pushing out of the Rockies. It'll be teens in Atlanta while pushing 70 in Texas. DFW is on pace for a top 10 warmest DJF

Your control of the thermostat is too great, sir!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

GFS 00z was painful.

[Portastorm]

GFS 00z was painful.

The 6z and 12z GFS op runs are not any better.

If we don't see signs of the PNA breaking down by Feb. 20th -- stick a fork in it for "winter" south of DFW.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well, MJO will help when it swings around but at 4/5 we cant expect anything but miserable warmth.


Great youtube clip on blocking. I enjoyed it.

[Brent]

OK, let's get back to discussing this unbearable Texas winter in this thread.

Winter was cancelled...

I vote we move to the spring thread.

[weatherdude1108]

The MJO is ruining this winter. I get the MJO, but not entirely when it comes to overwhelming Nino. Apparently, its not even something that usually shows its head during El nino. Can we at least get some good rain storms for nino?! Lol

It shouldn't be or at least in theory the MJO should be non existent for an El Niño this powerful. It's been a pain to say the least. This winter has only solidified my stance that using historical analogs has and will continue to become less and less useful. Expect the unexpected and hope we can have some semblance of "normalcy". I'm getting worried about what the rest of 2016 has in store.

I ran across this very interesting presentation done this past Dec about blocking patterns on YouTube.

https://youtu.be/11G2XyGm-DU

Interesting video on blocking! Thanks for sharing that.

[northjaxpro]

It is amazing how weather patterns affect regions. The +PNA to you all in Texas is very similar to a +NAO for us in winter. +PNA deflects the arctic cold well east of the Rockies and brings most of you in Texas mild to warm weather, with maybe the possible exception for those in extreme Eastern TX that gets barely brushed by the Arctic masses missing them just to the east. The +NAO does for us in the same way due to ridging. +NAO deflects the arctic cold north and east well away from Florida and the Southeast U.S. +PNA (Strong ridging across the U.S. West coast and the Rockies and north to Western Canada) +NAO which brings Florida and much of the Southeast U.S. and portions of U.S. Eastern seaboard unseasonable warmth due to ridging across the Western Atlantic extending into the GOM in some instances.

I can empathize with you all. That pesky Southeast Ridge ruled our winter for most of the 2014-15 winter season, and also played a part along with the strong El Nino for this current season, breaking all-time records for warmth here in November and December until we got to January and we finally saw the pattern change.

There are indications that the +PNA will breakdown as we get to the latter part of February. I still think you guys out in Texas may get in on some late season winter surprises by the time we enter March. Remember, we got our coldest weather of 2015 winter in late February. Keep the faith you winter lovers!!!

[Portastorm]

Thanks northjaxpro. We appreciate the encouragement and good thoughts. The subtleties of atmospheric indices like the NAO, AO, PNA, and EPO are very interesting the more you learn about them.

Such a nice post you made ... I gotta say something now like "Go Jaguars!" or "Go Blake Bortles!"

[northjaxpro]

Thanks northjaxpro. We appreciate the encouragement and good thoughts. The subtleties of atmospheric indices like the NAO, AO, PNA, and EPO are very interesting the more you learn about them.

Such a nice post you made ... I gotta say something now like "Go Jaguars!" or "Go Blake Bortles!"

LOL... The Jaguars need all the encouragement they can get right now Portastorm I can assure you of that. Mediocrity just hangs over this team like the plague.

[wxman57]

OK, let's get back to discussing this unbearable Texas winter in this thread.

Winter was cancelled...

I vote we move to the spring thread.



http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_45.png

Even I am completely amazed by the change from very cold with winter precip that weekend to 70s and sunshine. Of course, we can't believe THAT forecast, either. Who knows what that weekend will bring? Somewhere between an ice storm and a heat wave is certain.

[Ntxw]

PNA is forecasted to rise some more the next 7 days. After the short cold front, we're going to string together some more 70s later next week. We're already +5.2 at DFW for the month and coldest will not be much below normal next week. DJF may crack top 5 warmest winters on record. The winter low so far at the airport is 27F. The warmest low for an entire winter is 25F in 1944-1945.

It hasn't been spectacularly warm with crazy record highs. But it hasn't been very low either. At this point I'm hoping for a weak La Nina next winter.

So even though Feb isn't over, barely started, we've accumulated enough warm anomalies that it would have to be very cold the rest of the way to achieve near normal. Which if that happened DJF would only be an above normal winter vs much above. Bust with the Nino climo.