Texas Winter 2015-2016

[CaptinCrunch]

Only thing I see is a early March cold spell. The thing to watch will be that bottled up cold getting released in waves come spring. We may see a significant severe weather season beginning late March and lasting through May.

[weatherdude1108]

Here is a good write up from Texas Storm Chasers this past Monday on El Nino and past conditions in Texas, concentrating on 1957-58 as the closest analog.

http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/02/08 ... o-el-nino/

[TheProfessor]

Just walked through my first snow squall, not quite the same as a blizzard, but still really cool.

[Brent]

Beautiful

[TheProfessor]

There are some signs that show that it will get cold again the last week of February, there just needs to be a storm. I'm hoping for a Neutral PNA, but I think you guys need a negative PNA so the cold doesn't get shunted east.

[Brent]

There are some signs that show that it will get cold again the last week of February, there just needs to be a storm. I'm hoping for a Neutral PNA, but I think you guys need a negative PNA so the cold doesn't get shunted east.

The GFS certainly has a much more active pattern... another storm quickly follows the one posted above though we are way out in fantasy land.

I'm not really believing the cold tbh(and even less, anything frozen), though I do halfway figure we're gonna pay for all this warmth still eventually, even if it's just a bunch of cold rainy days

[Ntxw]

Temp wise looks like strong push back to more +PNA. Very strong through end of Feb so we can forget about last year's late push in terms of cold air. We may just have already started spring!

Portastorm said it best, PNA took our winter away

[vbhoutex]

Only thing I see is a early March cold spell. The thing to watch will be that bottled up cold getting released in waves come spring. We may see a significant severe weather season beginning late March and lasting through May.

I was wondering about this. There is still plenty of cold air and eventually it will have to go somewhere. Some of it will come South and therefor would bang up against our warmth and moisture. I know some of those conflicts will be sharp and some not so much, but I would think we will see both. All I know right now is that WE ALL NEED SOME RAIN!!

[wxman57]

Looks like well above-normal temps from the southern Rockies up through western & central Canada for the next couple of weeks. Hard to get any really cold air in Texas with that pattern. Meanwhile, it's 70 in Houston but feels pretty darn cold for biking. Having to wear leg warmers and a long-sleeve jersey this afternoon. The clouds really make it feel cold.

[TheProfessor]

Looks like well above-normal temps from the southern Rockies up through western & central Canada for the next couple of weeks. Hard to get any really cold air in Texas with that pattern. Meanwhile, it's 70 in Houston but feels pretty darn cold for biking. Having to wear leg warmers and a long-sleeve jersey this afternoon. The clouds really make it feel cold.

Wxman come take a trip to Ohio, I'll show you what real cold is.

[wxman57]

Looks like well above-normal temps from the southern Rockies up through western & central Canada for the next couple of weeks. Hard to get any really cold air in Texas with that pattern. Meanwhile, it's 70 in Houston but feels pretty darn cold for biking. Having to wear leg warmers and a long-sleeve jersey this afternoon. The clouds really make it feel cold.

Wxman come take a trip to Ohio, I'll show you what real cold is.

No thanks. It was 70, cloudy, and a 15 mph headwind all the way out on my bike ride. Nearly froze my ears off. Should have had something covering my ears. Has to be around 85 to feel comfortable on a ride.

[gpsnowman]

To quote John McEnroe, you cannot be serious. And to quote Robert Hayes and Leslie Neilson, surely you can't be serious. And don't call me Shirley.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Looks like well above-normal temps from the southern Rockies up through western & central Canada for the next couple of weeks. Hard to get any really cold air in Texas with that pattern. Meanwhile, it's 70 in Houston but feels pretty darn cold for biking. Having to wear leg warmers and a long-sleeve jersey this afternoon. The clouds really make it feel cold.

Wxman come take a trip to Ohio, I'll show you what real cold is.

No thanks. It was 70, cloudy, and a 15 mph headwind all the way out on my bike ride. Nearly froze my ears off. Should have had something covering my ears. Has to be around 85 to feel comfortable on a ride.

We call that perfect t-shirt motorcycle riding weather.

[hriverajr]

Wxman come take a trip to Ohio, I'll show you what real cold is.

No thanks. It was 70, cloudy, and a 15 mph headwind all the way out on my bike ride. Nearly froze my ears off. Should have had something covering my ears. Has to be around 85 to feel comfortable on a ride.

We call that perfect t-shirt motorcycle riding weather.

I personally think wxman57 has a problem with his heating system..hehe.. I would find that weather perfect for a bike ride

[wxman57]

My wife (from Chicago and lived in Thunder Bay, Ontario) was wearing a long-sleeve insulated jersey and tights. She was quite cold. When you're out on a bike for 3-4 hours in cloudy, windy weather with a temperature of only 70 it gets quite cold.

[hriverajr]

Probably depends on your body mass. Done it feels great. Rode one time at 110. Now that is interesting. I used to ride a lot

[Brent]

Maybe it will rain at least...

[gpsnowman]

Reading Steve Mccauleys latest facebook post is just depressing. The rain tonight has shifted east leaving the DFW area with a small chance. And temps will be above normal for the foreseeable future. Worst winter ever. Oh, and the dreaded "cap" is making an appearance. Just lovely.

[Ntxw]

PNA will rise just as high if not higher. There is no signs of a major shift. DFW will break the warmest winter low (only 27f thus far) and we have not had a daily high below 40 which will be another record. With the ++PNA that may squash the wetter pattern shown with more NW flow at least through the end of Feb.

It is just one of those years.

[wxman57]

A key to any significant rainfall across Texas is significant return flow off the Gulf. It looks like such return flow sets up next Thu-Fri-Sat. That may be enough to result in some significant rain next Sun/Mon along a slow-moving cold front.